Mizzou Arena · at Missouri · Conference game
Closing line
TENN -3.5✓ MIZ covered by 7.5
TENN -3.5✓ MIZ covered by 7.5Closing total143.5Under by 1.5
| TENN | This season | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 20-7 | Record | 18-9 |
| 12-15 | ATS | 12-15 |
| 15-12 | O/U | 13-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 76–71 MIZ · ✗ TENN (67%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 29 | 40 | 69 |
| MIZ | 26 | 47 | 73 |
1st half: TENN 29, MIZ 26 (TENN by 3). The model had TENN by 3.0 and a total of 68.6 (actual 55).
Team stats
| TENN | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-63 43% | Field goals | 26-55 47% |
| 7-24 29% | 3-pointers | 4-17 24% |
| 8-14 57% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 42 18 off | Rebounds | 30 9 off |
| 13 | Assists | 9 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 37 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 8-21 | 3-12 |
| Nate Ament F | 36 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 5-14 | 2-5 |
| Felix Okpara F | 34 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 7-7 | 0-0 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 33 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Jaylen Carey F | 26 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| DeWayne Brown II F | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Burg G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Troy Henderson G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amaree Abram, Grant Hurst, Cade Phillips, Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.O. Barrett F | 36 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 12-17 | 0-0 |
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 35 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 8-13 | 0-1 |
| Trent Pierce G | 30 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Stone G | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Robinson II G | 28 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Trent Burns C | 19 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Jacob Crews G | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Luke Northweather, Aaron Rowe, Nicholas Randall, Sebastian Mack, Jevon Porter, Annor Boateng
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTENN -3.5
ModelTENN -4.9
Model edgeTENN +1.4
L MIZ covered
Total
Market143.5
Model146.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
L Under
Projected score
TENN 75.8 · MIZ 70.9
TENN 69 · MIZ 73
Win probability
TENN 67%
1st half
Spread
TENN -3.0
TENN -3.0
Total
68.6
55 points
Projected score
TENN 35.8 · MIZ 32.8
TENN 29 · MIZ 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -4.5
1 → MIZ
CloseTENN -3.5
1 pt toward MIZ
Total
Open143.5
no move
Close143.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TENN -192 · MIZ +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -4.5 · closed TENN -3.5 · moved 1 toward MIZmodel TENN -5
model TENN -5
Opened 143.5 · unchangedmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| MIZ | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TENN 3–2 MIZTENN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings · TENN 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | MIZ 81 @ TENN 85 | TENN -8.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 20, 2023-24 | TENN 72 @ MIZ 67 | MIZ +11.5 | MIZ W |
| Mar 10, 2022-23 | TENN 71 vs MIZ 79 | MIZ +4.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | MIZ 86 @ TENN 85 | TENN -12.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 22, 2021-22 | TENN 80 @ MIZ 61 | MIZ +10.5 | TENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
27 games played
Straight up
20-7
74% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-12
56% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs UK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @ UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vs AUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | vs MISS | W 84-66 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @UK | L 71-74 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | @ MSST | W 73-64 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | vs LSU | W 73-63 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | vs OU | W 89-66 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 21 | @ VAN | W 69-65 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+5.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−1.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
+0.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−4.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+11.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
+6.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+10.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−2.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
−10.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−7.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+5.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
−16.5
over 15under 12avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Missouri
27 games played
Straight up
18-9
67% wins
Against the spread
12-15
44% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-14
48% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vsSCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vsKU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vsILL | L 48-91 | +8.5 | L −34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | vsFLA | W 76-74 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 7 | @UK | W 73-68 | +12.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @MISS | L 69-76 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | vsAUB | W 84-74 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | @LSU | L 70-78 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | vsUGA | L 72-74 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 24 | vsOU | W 88-87 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 27 | @ALA | L 64-90 | +10.5 | L −15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsMSST | W 84-79 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | @ SC | W 78-59 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 11 | @TA&M | W 86-85 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 14 | vsTEX | L 68-85 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 18 | vsVAN | W 81-80 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | @ARK | L 86-94 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−34.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
+9.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
+17.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
−5.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+11.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−6.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−3.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
−3.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−15.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
−1.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
+15.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+8.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
−19.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+4.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 15avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−14.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
−4.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
−9.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
+1.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+4.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−0.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−17.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
+23.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−13.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
+16.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
−10.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+10.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
+2.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+6.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+20.5
over 13under 14avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
20-7 overall · 10-4 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Vanderbilt69–65
- Wvs Oklahoma89–66
- Wvs LSU73–63
- W@ Mississippi St73–64
- L@ Kentucky71–74
3 days since their last game.
Missouri
18-9 overall · 8-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Arkansas86–94
- Wvs Vanderbilt81–80
- Lvs Texas68–85
- W@ Texas A&M86–85
- W@ South Carolina78–59
3 days since their last game.