Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
TENN -8.5✓ TENN covered by 0.5
TENN -8.5✓ TENN covered by 0.5Closing total147.5Under by 10.5
| TENN | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 16-7 | Record | 11-12 |
| 9-14 | ATS | 8-15 |
| 14-9 | O/U | 11-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 80–72 MSST · ✓ TENN (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 39 | 34 | 73 |
| MSST | 28 | 36 | 64 |
1st half: TENN 39, MSST 28 (TENN by 11). The model had TENN by 5.0 and a total of 71.0 (actual 67).
Team stats
| TENN | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-62 44% | Field goals | 25-61 41% |
| 4-13 31% | 3-pointers | 7-22 32% |
| 15-18 83% | Free throws | 7-13 54% |
| 45 13 off | Rebounds | 31 7 off |
| 19 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 37 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 7-19 | 2-8 |
| Nate Ament F | 32 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 5-12 | 0-2 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 30 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 26 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Felix Okpara F | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 14 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Troy Henderson G | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Ethan Burg, Grant Hurst, Clarence Massamba, Cade Phillips, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Amaree Abram
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 33 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 13-24 | 4-9 |
| Jayden Epps G | 26 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Achor Achor F | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Sergej Macura F | 20 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| King Grace G | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amier Ali, Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Brandon Walker, Gai Chol
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -7.5
1 → TENN
CloseTENN -8.5
1 pt toward TENN
Total
Open147.5
no move
Close147.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TENN -395 · MSST +310
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -7.5 · closed TENN -8.5 · moved 1 toward TENNmodel TENN -8
model TENN -8
Opened 147.5 · unchangedmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TENN -8.5 | TENN -8.1 | MSST +0.4 | L TENN covered |
| Total | 147.5 | 151.8 | Over 4.3 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | TENN 80 · MSST 71.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TENN -5.0 | TENN -11.0 |
| 1H total | 71.0 | 67 |
| 1H projected score | TENN 38 · MSST 33 | TENN 39 · MSST 28 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| MSST | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
TENN 5–2 MSSTTENN leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TENN 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | MSST 56 @ TENN 68 | TENN -8.5 | TENN W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | MSST 73 vs TENN 56 | TENN -10 | MSST W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | TENN 72 @ MSST 77 | MSST +2.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 17, 2022-23 | TENN 70 @ MSST 59 | MSST +5.5 | TENN W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | MSST 53 @ TENN 87 | TENN -10.5 | TENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
23 games played
Straight up
16-7
70% wins
Against the spread
9-14
39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-9
61% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs UK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @ UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vs AUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | vs MISS | W 84-66 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @UK | L 71-74 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+5.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−1.5
covered 9didn’t cover 14avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+10.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−2.5
over 14under 9avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
8-15
35% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-12
48% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vsMISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | @TA&M | L 68-88 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 24 | vs VAN | L 56-88 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ LSU | W 80-66 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @ MIZ | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | vsARK | L 68-88 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 163.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−11.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−24.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
+21.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+1.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−14.5
covered 8didn’t cover 15avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
21
@TA&M
TA&ML 68-88
−7.5
24
vsVAN
VANL 56-88
−15.5
28
@LSU
LSUW 80-66
−8.5
31
@MIZ
MIZL 79-84
+16.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 68-88
−7.5
over 11under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
16-7 overall · 6-4 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kentucky71–74
- Wvs Ole Miss84–66
- Wvs Auburn77–69
- W@ Georgia86–85
- W@ Alabama79–73
4 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
11-12 overall · 3-7 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Arkansas68–88
- L@ Missouri79–84
- W@ LSU80–66
- Lvs Vanderbilt56–88
- L@ Texas A&M68–88
4 days since their last game.