Reed Arena · at Texas A&M · Conference game
Closing line
TA&M -8.5✓ TA&M covered by 11.5
TA&M -8.5✓ TA&M covered by 11.5Closing total163.5Under by 7.5
 MSST | This season | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| 10-8 | Record | 14-4 |
| 6-12 | ATS | 11-7 |
| 10-8 | O/U | 12-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 80–88 TA&M · ✓ TA&M (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 33 | 35 | 68 |
| TA&M | 44 | 44 | 88 |
1st half: MSST 33, TA&M 44 (TA&M by 11). The model had TA&M by 4.7 and a total of 78.8 (actual 77).
Team stats
| MSST | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-60 43% | Field goals | 28-68 41% |
| 6-23 26% | 3-pointers | 9-26 35% |
| 10-15 67% | Free throws | 23-24 96% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 37 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 18 |
| 1 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 31 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5-14 | 2-8 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Achor Achor F | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Epps G | 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| King Grace G | 22 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Sergej Macura F | 20 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Walker F | 19 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 7-10 | 1-2 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Amier Ali F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
| TA&M | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaun Agee F | 27 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 7-14 | 0-4 |
| Rylan Griffen G | 25 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-3 |
| Jacari Lane G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Ruben Dominguez G | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Marcus Hill G | 21 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ali Dibba G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Pop Isaacs G | 19 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Zach Clemence F | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Josh Holloway G | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Jamie Vinson F | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Federiko Federiko F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris McDermott, Jeremiah Green, Noah Shelby, Mackenzie Mgbako
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTA&M -8.5
ModelTA&M -8.1
Model edgeMSST +0.4
L TA&M covered
Total
Market163.5
Model168.4
Model edgeOver 4.9
L Under
Projected score
MSST 80.1 · TA&M 88.2
MSST 68 · TA&M 88
Win probability
TA&M 76%
1st half
Spread
TA&M -4.7
TA&M -11.0
Total
78.8
77 points
Projected score
MSST 37 · TA&M 41.8
MSST 33 · TA&M 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTA&M -7.5
1 → TA&M
CloseTA&M -8.5
1 pt toward TA&M
Total
Open160.5
▲ 3
Close163.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MSST +310 · TA&M -395
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TA&M -7.5 · closed TA&M -8.5 · moved 1 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -8
model TA&M -8
Opened 160.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 3 upmodel 168.5
model 168.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| TA&M | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSST 2–2 TA&MSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · MSST 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | TA&M 54 @ MSST 70 | MSST -2.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 6, 2023-24 | MSST 69 @ TA&M 75 | TA&M -2.5 | TA&M W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | TA&M 62 @ MSST 69 | MSST -1.5 | MSST W |
| Mar 5, 2021-22 | MSST 64 @ TA&M 67 | TA&M -2 | TA&M W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
18 games played
Straight up
10-8
56% wins
Against the spread
6-12
33% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | vs MISS | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−4.5
covered 6didn’t cover 12avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
17
vsMISS
MISSL 67-68
−12.5
over 10under 8avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas A&M
18 games played
Straight up
14-4
78% wins
Against the spread
11-7
61% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-6
67% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NWST | W 98-68 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 6 | vs TXSO | W 104-70 | -29.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 9 | @ OKST | L 63-87 | -2.5 | L −26.5 | 174.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs UCF | L 74-86 | -10.5 | L −22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 18 | vs MONT | W 86-81 | -17.5 | L −12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MAN | W 109-68 | -23.5 | W +17.5 | 162.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 25 | vs MVSU | W 120-84 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 28 | vs FSU | W 95-59 | +1.5 | W +37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | @ PITT | W 81-73 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 7 | vsSMU | L 80-93 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 14 | vs JAX | W 112-75 | -26.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Dec 21 | vs ETAM | W 118-77 | -28.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 29 | vs PV | W 111-82 | -29.5 | L −0.5 | 177.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 3 | vs LSU | W 75-72 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | @ AUB | W 90-88 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsOU | W 83-76 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 13 | @ TENN | L 82-87 | +11.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | @TEX | W 74-70 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNWST
NWSTW 98-68
+8.5
6
vsTXSO
TXSOW 104-70
+4.5
9
@OKST
OKSTL 63-87
−26.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 74-86
−22.5
18
vsMONT
MONTW 86-81
−12.5
21
vsMAN
MANW 109-68
+17.5
25
vsMVSU
MVSUW 120-84
−6.5
28
vsFSU
FSUW 95-59
+37.5
2
@PITT
PITTW 81-73
+4.5
7
vsSMU
SMUL 80-93
−14.5
14
vsJAX
JAXW 112-75
+10.5
21
vsETAM
ETAMW 118-77
+12.5
29
vsPV
PVW 111-82
−0.5
3
vsLSU
LSUW 75-72
−2.5
6
@AUB
AUBW 90-88
+8.5
10
vsOU
OUW 83-76
+2.5
13
@TENN
TENNL 82-87
+6.5
17
@TEX
TEXW 74-70
+8.5
covered 11didn’t cover 7avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNWST
NWSTW 98-68
+12.5
6
vsTXSO
TXSOW 104-70
+12.5
9
@OKST
OKSTL 63-87
−24.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 74-86
−12.5
18
vsMONT
MONTW 86-81
+2.5
21
vsMAN
MANW 109-68
+14.5
25
vsMVSU
MVSUW 120-84
+49.5
28
vsFSU
FSUW 95-59
−20.5
2
@PITT
PITTW 81-73
+1.5
7
vsSMU
SMUL 80-93
+8.5
14
vsJAX
JAXW 112-75
+39.5
21
vsETAM
ETAMW 118-77
+28.5
29
vsPV
PVW 111-82
+15.5
3
vsLSU
LSUW 75-72
−21.5
6
@AUB
AUBW 90-88
+9.5
10
vsOU
OUW 83-76
−6.5
13
@TENN
TENNL 82-87
+9.5
17
@TEX
TEXW 74-70
−22.5
over 12under 6avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
10-8 overall · 2-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Ole Miss67–68
- Lvs Alabama82–97
- L@ Kentucky68–92
- Wvs Oklahoma72–53
- W@ Texas101–98
4 days since their last game.
Texas A&M
14-4 overall · 4-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Texas74–70
- L@ Tennessee82–87
- Wvs Oklahoma83–76
- W@ Auburn90–88
- Wvs LSU75–72
4 days since their last game.