Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 6, 9:00 PM ETNeville Arena · at Auburn · Conference game

#28TA&MTexas A&M90▲ winner

Final

#21AUBAuburn88final

Closing lineAUB -6.5✓ TA&M covered by 8.5

Closing total168.5Over by 9.5

Season records: Texas A&M and Auburn
TA&M	This season	AUB
11-3	Record	9-5
7-7	ATS	9-5
10-4	O/U	10-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TA&M 84–89 AUB · ✗ AUB (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TA&M	37	53	90
AUB	47	41	88

1st half: TA&M 37, AUB 47 (AUB by 10). The model had AUB by 3.3 and a total of 81.1 (actual 84).

Team stats

TA&M		AUB
32-61 52%	Field goals	29-65 45%
13-30 43%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
13-20 65%	Free throws	23-31 74%
34 12 off	Rebounds	40 19 off
14	Assists	12
11	Steals	5
4	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	13
21	Fouls	17
34	Points in paint	38
5	Fast-break points	18

Players

TA&M	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rylan Griffen G	31	9	6	1	4-6	1-2
Ruben Dominguez G	30	14	4	2	4-8	4-7
Jacari Lane G	29	17	7	0	4-9	3-6
Rashaun Agee F	28	14	7	1	6-10	0-3
Marcus Hill G	13	4	1	0	2-5	0-1
Bench
Pop Isaacs G	29	21	2	5	7-12	4-8
Ali Dibba G	20	9	5	4	4-8	1-2
Federiko Federiko F	10	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Zach Clemence F	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Josh Holloway G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jamie Vinson F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chris McDermott, Jeremiah Green, Noah Shelby, Mackenzie Mgbako

AUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keyshawn Hall F	37	32	12	3	8-15	3-5
Kevin Overton G	35	16	3	1	6-16	2-7
Sebastian Williams-Adams F	30	11	5	2	4-6	1-2
KeShawn Murphy F	27	8	8	1	4-8	0-1
Kaden Magwood G	8	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Tahaad Pettiford G	32	11	4	2	3-9	1-6
Elyjah Freeman G	15	8	2	1	3-6	0-2
Simon Walker G	9	2	2	1	1-3	0-2
Filip Jovic C	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Blake Muschalek, Reed Trapp, CJ Williams, Joah Shay, Drake Cardwell, Abdul Bashir, Emeka Opurum, Jeremiah Bowman, Bradley Pearson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AUB -6.5	AUB -5.7	TA&M +0.8	W TA&M covered
Total	168.5	173.2	Over 4.7	W Over
Projected score	—	TA&M 83.8 · AUB 89.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AUB -3.3	AUB -10.0
1H total	81.1	84
1H projected score	TA&M 38.9 · AUB 42.2	TA&M 37 · AUB 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LWWLL	7-7	50%	1-1	1-0
AUB LLLWW	9-5	64%	5-1	6-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OOOOU	10-4	71%	11-3
AUB OOUUO	10-4	71%	9-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
AUB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

TA&M 4–2 AUBTA&M leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · TA&M 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 4, 2024-25	AUB 72 @ TA&M 83	TA&M +3.5	TA&M W
Jan 9, 2023-24	TA&M 55 @ AUB 66	AUB -6.5	AUB W
Feb 7, 2022-23	AUB 78 @ TA&M 83	TA&M -3.5	TA&M W
Jan 25, 2022-23	TA&M 79 @ AUB 63	AUB -3.5	TA&M W
Mar 11, 2021-22	TA&M 67 vs AUB 62	AUB -9	TA&M W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Texas A&M

14 games played

Straight up

11-3

79% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-4

71% overs · avg +7.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-379%

W W L L W W W W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-750%

W W L L L W L W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-471%

O O U U O O O U O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNWST	W 98-68	-21.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	vsTXSO	W 104-70	-29.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 9	@OKST	L 63-87	-2.5	L −26.5	174.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsUCF	L 74-86	-10.5	L −22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 18	vsMONT	W 86-81	-17.5	L −12.5	164.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMAN	W 109-68	-23.5	W +17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 25	vsMVSU	W 120-84	-42.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 204
Nov 28	vsFSU	W 95-59	+1.5	W +37.5	174.5	U 154
Dec 2	@PITT	W 81-73	-3.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsSMU	L 80-93	-1.5	L −14.5	164.5	O 173
Dec 14	vsJAX	W 112-75	-26.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 187
Dec 21	vsETAM	W 118-77	-28.5	W +12.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 29	vsPV	W 111-82	-29.5	L −0.5	177.5	O 193
Jan 3	vsLSU	W 75-72	-5.5	L −2.5	168.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 98-68

+8.5

TXSO

W 104-70

+4.5

OKST

L 63-87

−26.5

UCF

L 74-86

−22.5

MONT

W 86-81

−12.5

MAN

W 109-68

+17.5

MVSU

W 120-84

−6.5

FSU

W 95-59

+37.5

PITT

W 81-73

+4.5

SMU

L 80-93

−14.5

JAX

W 112-75

+10.5

ETAM

W 118-77

+12.5

W 111-82

−0.5

LSU

W 75-72

−2.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 98-68

+12.5

TXSO

W 104-70

+12.5

OKST

L 63-87

−24.5

UCF

L 74-86

−12.5

MONT

W 86-81

+2.5

MAN

W 109-68

+14.5

MVSU

W 120-84

+49.5

FSU

W 95-59

−20.5

PITT

W 81-73

+1.5

SMU

L 80-93

+8.5

JAX

W 112-75

+39.5

ETAM

W 118-77

+28.5

W 111-82

+15.5

LSU

W 75-72

−21.5

over 10under 4avg +7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

9-5

64% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-4

71% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W W W L W W L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-564%

L W W W W W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-471%

O O O O O O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsSJU	W 85-74	+4.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 3	vsNCSU	W 83-73	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	@ARIZ	L 68-97	+11.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsUTC	W 92-78	-19.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsPUR	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsQUC	W 106-65	-25.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 171
Jan 3	@UGA	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	173.5	O 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

SJU

W 85-74

+15.5

NCSU

W 83-73

+4.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

−17.5

UTC

W 92-78

−5.5

PUR

L 60-88

−20.5

QUC

W 106-65

+15.5

UGA

L 100-104

+2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 5avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

SJU

W 85-74

−7.5

NCSU

W 83-73

−6.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

+2.5

UTC

W 92-78

+19.5

PUR

L 60-88

−4.5

QUC

W 106-65

−0.5

UGA

L 100-104

+30.5

over 10under 4avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Texas A&M

Auburn

Texas A&M

Auburn