St. John's Red Storm vs Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 8:00 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#9SJUSt John's AP #1474final

Final

#21AUBAuburn AP #2185▲ winner

Closing lineSJU -4.5✓ AUB covered by 15.5

Closing total166.5Under by 7.5

Season records: St John's and Auburn
SJU	This season	AUB
4-2	Record	5-2
5-1	ATS	5-2
4-2	O/U	7-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SJU 89–82 AUB · ✗ SJU (73%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SJU	39	35	74
AUB	30	55	85

1st half: SJU 39, AUB 30 (SJU by 9). The model had SJU by 4.3 and a total of 80.0 (actual 69).

Team stats

SJU		AUB
23-60 38%	Field goals	29-53 55%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	6-14 43%
21-28 75%	Free throws	21-25 84%
32 19 off	Rebounds	35 12 off
13	Assists	16
5	Steals	9
2	Blocks	5
14	Turnovers	12
21	Fouls	18
30	Points in paint	44
5	Fast-break points	18

Players

SJU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zuby Ejiofor F	35	24	6	2	6-11	1-2
Oziyah Sellers G	34	4	1	3	1-7	1-5
Joson Sanon G	30	16	2	0	5-10	4-7
Bryce Hopkins F	28	9	7	2	2-11	0-5
Dylan Darling G	7	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Dillon Mitchell F	31	4	4	4	2-7	0-1
Ian Jackson G	15	7	3	0	3-5	0-2
Sadiku Ibine Ayo F	15	7	1	1	3-7	1-3
Ruben Prey F	5	3	1	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Casper Pohto, Fotis Konstantinidis, Imran Suljanovic, Kelvin Odih, Lefteris Liotopoulos, Handje Tamba

AUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kevin Overton G	38	12	3	5	3-7	1-2
Tahaad Pettiford G	37	27	4	2	10-19	3-8
Elyjah Freeman G	37	8	6	1	3-4	0-0
Keyshawn Hall F	35	20	8	4	5-11	1-3
KeShawn Murphy F	22	9	6	1	4-6	1-1
Bench
Sebastian Williams-Adams F	21	7	3	3	3-4	0-0
Emeka Opurum C	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Kaden Magwood G	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Simon Walker G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Filip Jovic, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Abdul Bashir, Drake Cardwell, Joah Shay, Reed Trapp, Blake Muschalek, CJ Williams

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SJU -4.5	SJU -6.9	SJU +2.4	L AUB covered
Total	166.5	171.0	Over 4.5	L Under
Projected score	—	SJU 88.9 · AUB 82.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJU -4.3	SJU -9.0
1H total	80.0	69
1H projected score	SJU 42.2 · AUB 37.9	SJU 39 · AUB 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SJU LWWWW	5-1	83%	2-0	4-1
AUB WWWWL	5-2	71%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: SJU neutral site, as favorite; AUB neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJU OUUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
AUB OOOOO	7-0	100%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJUlast 6	4-2 67%	5-1 83%	4-2 67%
AUBlast 7	5-2 71%	5-2 71%	7-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St John's

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUIN	W 108-74	-26.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 8	vsALA	L 96-103	-4.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 15	vsW&M	W 93-60	-28.5	W +4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 20	vsBUCK	W 97-49	-28.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsISU	L 82-83	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsBAY	W 96-81	-5.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+7.5

ALA

L 96-103

−11.5

W&M

W 93-60

+4.5

BUCK

W 97-49

+19.5

ISU

L 82-83

+1.5

BAY

W 96-81

+9.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+25.5

ALA

L 96-103

+26.5

W&M

W 93-60

−26.5

BUCK

W 97-49

−12.5

ISU

L 82-83

+6.5

BAY

W 96-81

+17.5

over 4under 2avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-0

100% overs · avg +10.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-0100%

O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

over 7under 0avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St. John's Red Storm vs Auburn Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St John's

Auburn

St John's

Auburn