Chattanooga Mocs vs Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 4:50 PM ETState Farm Arena · Neutral site

Final

#21AUBAuburn AP #2192▲ winner

Closing lineAUB -19.5✓ UTC covered by 5.5

Closing total150.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Chattanooga and Auburn
UTC	This season	AUB
2-5	Record	7-3
2-5	ATS	7-3
3-4	O/U	8-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTC 68–92 AUB · ✓ AUB (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTC	38	40	78
AUB	43	49	92

1st half: UTC 38, AUB 43 (AUB by 5). The model had AUB by 14.3 and a total of 74.5 (actual 81).

Team stats

UTC		AUB
27-59 46%	Field goals	26-53 49%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	11-30 37%
17-20 85%	Free throws	29-37 78%
20 4 off	Rebounds	42 14 off
17	Assists	17
10	Steals	1
0	Blocks	3
6	Turnovers	13
24	Fouls	17
36	Points in paint	30
18	Fast-break points	14

Players

UTC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Billy Smith G	36	14	3	3	6-13	2-8
Jordan Frison G	33	20	4	6	6-12	0-2
Brennan Watkins G	32	7	2	2	1-8	1-4
Makai Richards C	20	2	1	0	1-4	0-0
Tate Darner G	15	9	2	3	3-6	3-4
Bench
Teddy Washington Jr. G	32	16	2	1	6-11	1-2
Josh Bowman F	16	8	4	1	3-4	0-0
Houston Holland G	11	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jikari Johnson G	5	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Parker Robison, Zach Bleshoy, Collin Mulholland, Latif Diouf, Liam Vitters, Ryan Lopez, Sebastian Hartmann, Sean Cusano

AUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keyshawn Hall F	36	22	11	6	5-9	1-5
Sebastian Williams-Adams F	33	8	4	5	2-6	0-2
Tahaad Pettiford G	30	20	1	2	5-11	5-9
KeShawn Murphy F	22	9	9	0	3-6	0-2
Kevin Overton G	11	2	0	1	1-3	0-2
Bench
Elyjah Freeman G	33	19	7	0	7-13	2-6
Filip Jovic C	16	3	5	0	0-1	0-0
Kaden Magwood G	13	3	2	3	1-2	1-2
Simon Walker G	6	6	1	0	2-2	2-2

Did not play: Blake Muschalek, CJ Williams, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Reed Trapp, Abdul Bashir, Drake Cardwell, Joah Shay

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AUB -19.5	AUB -23.9	AUB +4.4	L UTC covered
Total	150.5	159.2	Over 8.7	W Over
Projected score	—	UTC 67.6 · AUB 91.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AUB -14.3	AUB -5.0
1H total	74.5	81
1H projected score	UTC 30.1 · AUB 44.4	UTC 38 · AUB 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTC LWWLL	2-5	29%	—	0-2
AUB WLWWL	7-3	70%	3-1	5-1

Venue/role: UTC neutral site, as underdog; AUB neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTC OUUUU	3-4	43%	2-5
AUB OOUUO	8-2	80%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTClast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%
AUB	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UTC 0–1 AUBAUB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UTC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2023-24	UTC 66 @ AUB 101	AUB -21.5	AUB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chattanooga

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −9.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SMC	L 66-87	+15.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 8	@UNLV	L 69-101	+7.5	L −24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 15	@FGCU	L 73-91	-1.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SCST	W 78-66	-11.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 22	vsUNA	W 71-57	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 128
Nov 30	vsTNST	L 64-70	-8.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsSEMO	L 70-74	-3.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

−5.5

UNLV

L 69-101

−24.5

FGCU

L 73-91

−19.5

SCST

W 78-66

+0.5

UNA

W 71-57

+4.5

TNST

L 64-70

−14.5

SEMO

L 70-74

−7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

+7.5

UNLV

L 69-101

+14.5

FGCU

L 73-91

+11.5

SCST

W 78-66

−10.5

UNA

W 71-57

−21.5

TNST

L 64-70

−21.5

SEMO

L 70-74

−5.5

over 3under 4avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

7-3

70% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-2

80% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W W L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-370%

L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-280%

O O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsSJU	W 85-74	+4.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 3	vsNCSU	W 83-73	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	@ARIZ	L 68-97	+11.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

SJU

W 85-74

+15.5

NCSU

W 83-73

+4.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

−17.5

covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

SJU

W 85-74

−7.5

NCSU

W 83-73

−6.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

+2.5

over 8under 2avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chattanooga Mocs vs Auburn Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Chattanooga

Auburn

Chattanooga

Auburn