American University Eagles at Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 13, 2:00 PM ETHytche Center · at MD Eastern

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: American and MD Eastern
AMER	This season	UMES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AMER 76–63 · win probability AMER 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AMER has more of the edges

AMER 4, UMES 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AMERBig

UMES offense vs AMER defense

Offense 364th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AMER 96%, UMES 9%. Transfers in: AMER 0, UMES 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AMER 15.6%, UMES 23.7%. Forced: AMER 19.2%, UMES 18.0%

AMERBig

AMER offense vs UMES defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 350th, on the model’s ratings

UMESSmall

Home court

UMES at home. This season: UMES 0-0 at home, AMER 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

AMER has played the 263rd-hardest schedule, UMES the 240th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: AMER plays 66.7 a game (289th fastest), UMES 65.8 (321st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4; UMES 47.8 and allows 50.8

Even

Three-pointers

AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%; UMES hits 29.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 46.5% and 33.5% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AMER 26.9%, UMES 32.4%. Defensive: AMER 70.6%, UMES 66.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: AMER 28.7, UMES 29.4. Allowed: AMER 42.1, UMES 43.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AMER -13.5	—
Total	—	139.0	—
Projected score	—	AMER 76.2 · UMES 62.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -8.2	—
1H total	65.1	—
1H projected score	AMER 36.6 · UMES 28.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—
UMES LWLLL	15-15	50%	4-4	—

Venue/role: AMER away; UMES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16
UMES OUOUO	13-17	43%	7-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UMES	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

American

No more games listed yet.

MD Eastern

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AMER 1–0 UMESAMER leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · AMER 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	UMES 60 @ AMER 78	AMER -10.5	AMER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

MD Eastern

30 games played

Straight up

7-23

23% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2323%

L L L L W L W L L L L L L L L W W W W L L L L L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

W L W L W W W W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L L L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

U U U U O U U O U O O O U O O U U O O U U U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GT	L 52-56	+28.5	W +24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 5	@UGA	L 29-94	+33.5	L −31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 11	@NEB	L 50-69	+35.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 14	@CREI	L 45-84	+33.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 18	@LONG	W 83-82	+17.5	W +18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 21	@CAN	L 57-60	+3.5	W +0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 22	vsBING	W 63-52	+5.5	W +16.5	125.5	U 115
Nov 25	vsHAMP	L 68-74	+6.5	W +0.5	124.5	O 142
Dec 2	@ECU	L 56-68	+12.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	@AMER	L 60-78	+10.5	L −7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 9	@UVA	L 60-84	+36.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 144
Dec 12	@NCAT	L 79-82	+7.5	W +4.5	130.5	O 161
Dec 14	@VT	L 53-82	+27.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 17	@WAG	L 64-78	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	O 142
Dec 22	@TEX	L 71-94	+33.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsMORG	W 66-49	-6.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 115
Jan 10	vsHOW	W 69-57	+2.5	W +14.5	130.5	U 126
Jan 12	@NORF	W 74-70	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	vsCOPP	W 70-67	-10.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 31	@DSU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	128.5	U 122
Feb 2	@NCCU	L 63-65	+2.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 128
Feb 4	@SCST	L 54-63	-3.5	L −12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@MORG	L 71-79	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 14	@HOW	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 16	vsNORF	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	@COPP	L 65-71	-3.5	L −9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsSCST	W 69-57	-5.5	W +6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	vsNCCU	L 73-77	-2.5	L −6.5	133.5	O 150
Mar 5	vsDSU	L 56-57	-5.5	L −6.5	124.5	U 113
Mar 12	vsNCCU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	131.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 52-56

+24.5

UGA

L 29-94

−31.5

NEB

L 50-69

+16.5

CREI

L 45-84

−5.5

LONG

W 83-82

+18.5

CAN

L 57-60

+0.5

BING

W 63-52

+16.5

HAMP

L 68-74

+0.5

ECU

L 56-68

+0.5

AMER

L 60-78

−7.5

UVA

L 60-84

+12.5

NCAT

L 79-82

+4.5

L 53-82

−1.5

WAG

L 64-78

−9.5

TEX

L 71-94

+10.5

MORG

W 66-49

+10.5

HOW

W 69-57

+14.5

NORF

W 74-70

+9.5

COPP

W 70-67

−7.5

DSU

L 57-65

−10.5

NCCU

L 63-65

+0.5

SCST

L 54-63

−12.5

MORG

L 71-79

−9.5

HOW

L 53-79

−15.5

NORF

L 66-70

−2.5

COPP

L 65-71

−9.5

SCST

W 69-57

+6.5

NCCU

L 73-77

−6.5

DSU

L 56-57

−6.5

NCCU

L 76-83

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 52-56

−31.5

UGA

L 29-94

−19.5

NEB

L 50-69

−27.5

CREI

L 45-84

−6.5

LONG

W 83-82

+26.5

CAN

L 57-60

−11.5

BING

W 63-52

−10.5

HAMP

L 68-74

+17.5

ECU

L 56-68

−3.5

AMER

L 60-78

+7.5

UVA

L 60-84

+9.5

NCAT

L 79-82

+30.5

L 53-82

−4.5

WAG

L 64-78

+10.5

TEX

L 71-94

+26.5

MORG

W 66-49

−23.5

HOW

W 69-57

−4.5

NORF

W 74-70

+11.5

COPP

W 70-67

+3.5

DSU

L 57-65

−6.5

NCCU

L 63-65

−6.5

SCST

L 54-63

−16.5

MORG

L 71-79

+9.5

HOW

L 53-79

−0.5

NORF

L 66-70

−0.5

COPP

L 65-71

+7.5

SCST

W 69-57

−6.5

NCCU

L 73-77

+16.5

DSU

L 56-57

−11.5

NCCU

L 76-83

+27.5

over 13under 17avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American has the better starters

Position by position: American 1, MD Eastern 0, even 4

AmericanBetterMD Eastern

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

No call

G I. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

AMERBig

F L. Beckwith1.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 1

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

No call

F L. Gibson-Savadel TR2.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

No call

F E. Berhanu NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

No call

F G. Tokody NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

AmericanBetterMD Eastern

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

AMERBig

UMES defense350th of 366 · -9.7

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

AMERBig

UMES offense364th of 366 · -15.3

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

No call

BackcourtNo numbers yet

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

AMERSmall

Frontcourt-3.5 · 4 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestAMER betterUMES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

MD Eastern

Guards

I. HallNewE. JohnsonNewI. GriffinNewS. MooreNewB. GardnerNewV. EzehNew

Forwards

L. Beckwith17 minL. Gibson-Savadel7 min · TRE. BerhanuNewG. TokodyNewA. ColeNewD. Hall-JohnsonNew

Centers

E. OgohNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AMER72.0 #242

UMES62.4 #360

Points per possession

AMER1.08 #190

UMES0.94 #358

Pace (possessions)

AMER66.7 #289

UMES65.8 #321

Shooting

Effective FG%

AMER51.5 #169

UMES47.8 #319

3-point %

AMER33.0 #235

UMES29.0 #354

3-point attempt rate

AMER46.5 #39

UMES33.5 #309

Free throw rate

AMER28.7 #335

UMES29.4 #321

Possessions

Turnover rate

AMER15.6 #110

UMES23.7 #365

Offensive rebound rate

AMER26.9 #299

UMES32.4 #112

Assists per game

AMER12.5 #248

UMES13.0 #213

Defense

Points allowed

AMER72.7 #124

UMES71.5 #91

Points allowed per possession

AMER1.09 #200

UMES1.09 #207

Opponent effective FG%

AMER54.4 #313

UMES50.8 #142

Opponent 3-point %

AMER35.5 #283

UMES33.5 #156

Turnovers forced

AMER19.2 #40

UMES18.0 #95

Defensive rebound rate

AMER70.6 #127

UMES66.4 #311

Steals per game

AMER7.3 #100

UMES5.7 #274

Blocks per game

AMER1.4 #363

UMES2.5 #302

AMER		UMES
Scoring
72.0 #242	Points per game	62.4 #360
1.08 #190	Points per possession	0.94 #358
66.7 #289	Pace (possessions)	65.8 #321
Shooting
51.5 #169	Effective FG%	47.8 #319
33.0 #235	3-point %	29.0 #354
46.5 #39	3-point attempt rate	33.5 #309
28.7 #335	Free throw rate	29.4 #321
Possessions
15.6 #110	Turnover rate	23.7 #365
26.9 #299	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #112
12.5 #248	Assists per game	13.0 #213
Defense
72.7 #124	Points allowed	71.5 #91
1.09 #200	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #207
54.4 #313	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #142
35.5 #283	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #156
19.2 #40	Turnovers forced	18.0 #95
70.6 #127	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #311
7.3 #100	Steals per game	5.7 #274
1.4 #363	Blocks per game	2.5 #302

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

MD Eastern

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-10 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC Central76–83
Lvs Delaware St56–57
Lvs NC Central73–77
Wvs SC State69–57
L@ Coppin St65–71

A week or more of rest.

American University Eagles at Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

What could decide it: AMER has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

American

MD Eastern

American has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

American

MD Eastern