Hilton Coliseum · at Iowa State
#23PURPurdue
@
#13ISUIowa State AP #18
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Purdue and Iowa State
PURThis seasonISU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 78–68 · win probability ISU 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 146.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

PUR 0, ISU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ISUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PUR 13.7%, ISU 14.9%. Forced: PUR 15.3%, ISU 22.6%
ISUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4; ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: PUR plays 65.4 a game (333rd fastest), ISU 68.5 (204th). Faster games mean more points
ISUSmall
Three-pointers
PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%; ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 40.2% and 38.8% of their shots
ISUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PUR 28.6, ISU 34.5. Allowed: PUR 25.5, ISU 28.1
ISUSmall
Home court
ISU at home. This season: ISU 0-0 at home, PUR 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PUR 36.4%, ISU 35.1%. Defensive: PUR 72.9%, ISU 71.4%
Context
Schedule so far
PUR has played the 6th-hardest schedule, ISU the 38th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
PUR offense vs ISU defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PUR 43%, ISU 57%. Transfers in: PUR 0, ISU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
ISU offense vs PUR defense
Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ISU -9.3—
Total—146.1—
Projected score—PUR 68.4 · ISU 77.7

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadISU -5.4—
1H total68.3—
1H projected scorePUR 31.4 · ISU 36.9—

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Purdue 0, Iowa State 2, even 3
PurdueBetterIowa State
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
Even
G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
Even
G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
ISUSmall
G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
ISUSmall
G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
Even
G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
PurdueBetterIowa State
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Even
ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
Even
ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
ISUBig
Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
ISUBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPUR betterISU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
Iowa State
Guards
R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min
Forwards
T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PURISU
Scoring
81.6 #35Points per game82.0 #32
1.25 #2Points per possession1.19 #20
65.4 #333Pace (possessions)68.5 #204
Shooting
57.6 #10Effective FG%56.2 #20
38.3 #113-point %38.3 #12
40.2 #1643-point attempt rate38.8 #196
28.6 #336Free throw rate34.5 #194
Possessions
13.7 #16Turnover rate14.9 #58
36.4 #19Offensive rebound rate35.1 #45
19.6 #2Assists per game17.4 #16
Defense
70.5 #65Points allowed65.6 #9
1.08 #162Points allowed per possession0.96 #4
52.4 #232Opponent effective FG%49.8 #92
34.1 #192Opponent 3-point %32.0 #63
15.3 #263Turnovers forced22.6 #4
72.9 #39Defensive rebound rate71.4 #85
5.5 #297Steals per game9.0 #9
2.8 #257Blocks per game2.6 #289

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee62–76
  • Wvs Kentucky82–63
  • Wvs Tennessee St108–74
  • Lvs Arizona80–82
  • Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.