Carver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa
#13ISUIowa State AP #18
@
#43IOWAIowa
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Iowa State and Iowa
ISUThis seasonIOWA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ISU 73–68 · win probability ISU 67%
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 141.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ISU has more of the edges

ISU 5, IOWA 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ISUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ISU 34.5, IOWA 35.1. Allowed: ISU 28.1, IOWA 38.5
ISUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ISU 35.1%, IOWA 30.2%. Defensive: ISU 71.4%, IOWA 70.8%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: ISU plays 68.5 a game (204th fastest), IOWA 63.0 (365th). Faster games mean more points
ISUSmall
Three-pointers
ISU hits 38.3% and allows 32.0%; IOWA hits 35.6% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 38.8% and 43.0% of their shots
ISUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ISU 56.2 and allows 49.8; IOWA 56.4 and allows 52.6
ISUSmall
IOWA offense vs ISU defense
Offense 69th of 366 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings
IOWASmall
Home court
IOWA at home. This season: IOWA 0-0 at home, ISU 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ISU 14.9%, IOWA 15.1%. Forced: ISU 22.6%, IOWA 20.3%
Context
Schedule so far
ISU has played the 38th-hardest schedule, IOWA the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ISU 57%, IOWA 61%. Transfers in: ISU 5, IOWA 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
ISU offense vs IOWA defense
Offense 26th of 366 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ISU -5.0—
Total—141.8—
Projected score—ISU 73.4 · IOWA 68.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadISU -3.1—
1H total66.4—
1H projected scoreISU 34.8 · IOWA 31.6—

Iowa State has the better starters

Position by position: Iowa State 2, Iowa 0, even 3
Iowa StateBetterIowa
G R. Prather TR16.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 3.7 ast Score 84
ISUSmall
G K. Combs6.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54
G L. Bond TR12.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
Even
G T. Coleman TR10 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 82
G T. Lipsey13.5 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.1 ast Score 98
ISUBig
F C. Koch7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 57
G J. Johnson TR16.8 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
Even
F C. Manyawu6.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
G K. Toure8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
Even
C A. McKeever TR8.3 pts · 9.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 77
Iowa StateBetterIowa
ISU offense26th of 366 · +7.0
Even
IOWA defense20th of 366 · +5.4
ISU defense6th of 366 · +9.3
ISUSmall
IOWA offense69th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt+14.4 · 5 players
ISUBig
Backcourt+0.9 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+4.1 · 3 players
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
ISUSmall
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestISU betterIOWA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Iowa State
Guards
R. Prather35 min · TRL. Bond33 min · TRT. Lipsey32 minJ. Johnson31 min · TRK. Toure25 minJ. Batemon16 min
Forwards
T. Singleton25 min · TRB. Buchanan25 minT. Manning21 min · TRD. Pleta11 minX. Mitchell3 minD. Rinaldo-KomlanNew
Iowa
Guards
K. Combs26 minT. Coleman23 min · TRI. Howard18 minT. Sage16 minJ. Koch2 minP. McCollumNew
Forwards
C. Koch28 minC. Manyawu19 minJ. Matteoni4 minT. ThompsonNew
Centers
A. McKeever23 min · TRT. Jirak8 min
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ISUIOWA
Scoring
82.0 #32Points per game74.5 #177
1.19 #20Points per possession1.18 #28
68.5 #204Pace (possessions)63.0 #365
Shooting
56.2 #20Effective FG%56.4 #17
38.3 #123-point %35.6 #85
38.8 #1963-point attempt rate43.0 #117
34.5 #194Free throw rate35.1 #176
Possessions
14.9 #58Turnover rate15.1 #75
35.1 #45Offensive rebound rate30.2 #192
17.4 #16Assists per game15.0 #88
Defense
65.6 #9Points allowed66.3 #16
0.96 #4Points allowed per possession1.05 #91
49.8 #92Opponent effective FG%52.6 #245
32.0 #63Opponent 3-point %33.3 #143
22.6 #4Turnovers forced20.3 #17
71.4 #85Defensive rebound rate70.8 #119
9.0 #9Steals per game6.8 #140
2.6 #289Blocks per game1.9 #349

Iowa State

29-8 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee62–76
  • Wvs Kentucky82–63
  • Wvs Tennessee St108–74
  • Lvs Arizona80–82
  • Wvs Texas Tech75–53

A week or more of rest.

Iowa

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois59–71
  • Wvs Nebraska77–71
  • Wvs Florida73–72
  • Wvs Clemson67–61
  • Lvs Ohio State69–72

A week or more of rest.