Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ILL -6.5✓ ILL covered by 5.5
ILL -6.5✓ ILL covered by 5.5Closing total138.5Under by 8.5
 IOWA | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 24-12 | Record | 27-8 |
| 21-15 | ATS | 21-14 |
| 20-16 | O/U | 15-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IOWA 71–77 ILL · ✓ ILL (71%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 32 | 27 | 59 |
| ILL | 28 | 43 | 71 |
1st half: IOWA 32, ILL 28 (IOWA by 4). The model had ILL by 3.7 and a total of 69.3 (actual 60).
Team stats
| IOWA | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-47 38% | Field goals | 25-53 47% |
| 11-30 37% | 3-pointers | 3-17 18% |
| 12-14 86% | Free throws | 18-21 86% |
| 21 8 off | Rebounds | 38 16 off |
| 12 | Assists | 8 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 1 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz G | 40 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 8-17 | 4-11 |
| Cooper Koch F | 39 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 26 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Tavion Banks G | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-3 |
| Kael Combs G | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaia Howard G | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Tate Sage G | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Trevin Jirak, Trey Thompson, Peyton McCollum, Joey Matteoni, Jacob Koch, Brendan Hausen
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Mirkovic F | 38 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 38 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 8-17 | 2-7 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 27 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-4 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 26 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jake Davis F | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 27 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 20 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Blake Fagbemi, Mihailo Petrovic, Brandon Lee, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -6.5
no move
CloseILL -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open141.5
▼ 3
Close138.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
IOWA +270 · ILL -340
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -6.5 · unchangedmodel ILL -6.5 matches the line
model ILL -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 141.5 · closed 138.5 · moved 3 downmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILL -6.5 | ILL -6.4 | IOWA +0.1 | L ILL covered |
| Total | 138.5 | 148.2 | Over 9.7 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | IOWA 70.9 · ILL 77.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -3.7 | IOWA -4.0 |
| 1H total | 69.3 | 60 |
| 1H projected score | IOWA 32.8 · ILL 36.5 | IOWA 32 · ILL 28 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ILL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
IOWA 1–7 ILLILL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 5 meetings · IOWA 1-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025-26 | ILL 75 @ IOWA 69 | IOWA +1.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | IOWA 94 vs ILL 106 | ILL -9.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | IOWA 61 @ ILL 81 | ILL -11.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 10, 2023-24 | ILL 73 @ IOWA 61 | IOWA +1.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | IOWA 85 @ ILL 95 | ILL -9.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa
36 games played
Straight up
24-12
67% wins
Against the spread
21-15
58% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-16
56% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
| Dec 2 | @ MSU | L 52-71 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MD | W 83-64 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 11 | @ ISU | L 62-66 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs WMU | W 91-51 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUCK | W 94-39 | -25.5 | W +29.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs UML | W 90-62 | -33.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | vs UCLA | W 74-61 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @ MINN | L 67-70 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 11 | vsILL | L 69-75 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ PUR | L 72-79 | +10.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ IU | W 74-57 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 20 | vs RUTG | W 68-62 | -17.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 28 | vs USC | W 73-72 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Feb 1 | @ ORE | W 84-66 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 133.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 4 | @ WASH | W 84-74 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 8 | vs NU | W 76-70 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 11 | @MD | L 70-77 | -10.5 | L −17.5 | 138.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 14 | vsPUR | L 57-78 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 17 | vs NEB | W 57-52 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 139.5 | U 109 |
| Feb 22 | @ WIS | L 71-84 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 25 | vs OSU | W 74-57 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 28 | @ PSU | L 69-71 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 143.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 5 | vs MICH | L 68-71 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 8 | @NEB | L 75-84 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 11 | vsMD | W 75-64 | -11.5 | L −0.5 | 133.5 | O 139 |
| Mar 12 | vsOSU | L 69-72 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Mar 20 | vs CLEM | W 67-61 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 130.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 22 | vs FLA | W 73-72 | +10.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 26 | vsNEB | W 77-71 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 131.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−13.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+8.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
+7.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+14.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
+29.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
−5.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
+6.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
−7.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
−4.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+3.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
+20.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−11.5
28
vsUSC
USCW 73-72
−8.5
1
@ORE
OREW 84-66
+8.5
4
@WASH
WASHW 84-74
+7.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-70
−4.5
11
@MD
MDL 70-77
−17.5
14
vsPUR
PURL 57-78
−18.5
17
vsNEB
NEBW 57-52
+3.5
22
@WIS
WISL 71-84
−10.5
25
vsOSU
OSUW 74-57
+10.5
28
@PSU
PSUL 69-71
−11.5
5
vsMICH
MICHL 68-71
+6.5
8
@NEB
NEBL 75-84
−4.5
11
vsMD
MDW 75-64
−0.5
12
vsOSU
OSUL 69-72
−4.5
20
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-61
+4.5
22
vsFLA
FLAW 73-72
+11.5
26
vsNEB
NEBW 77-71
+7.5
covered 21didn’t cover 15avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−10.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+9.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
−13.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
−0.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
+6.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
−5.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
+6.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
+1.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+5.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
−15.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−10.5
28
vsUSC
USCW 73-72
+3.5
1
@ORE
OREW 84-66
+16.5
4
@WASH
WASHW 84-74
+16.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-70
+6.5
11
@MD
MDL 70-77
+8.5
14
vsPUR
PURL 57-78
−7.5
17
vsNEB
NEBW 57-52
−30.5
22
@WIS
WISL 71-84
+7.5
25
vsOSU
OSUW 74-57
−10.5
28
@PSU
PSUL 69-71
−3.5
5
vsMICH
MICHL 68-71
−7.5
8
@NEB
NEBL 75-84
+22.5
11
vsMD
MDW 75-64
+5.5
12
vsOSU
OSUL 69-72
+0.5
20
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-61
−2.5
22
vsFLA
FLAW 73-72
−0.5
26
vsNEB
NEBW 77-71
+16.5
over 20under 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
35 games played
Straight up
27-8
77% wins
Against the spread
21-14
60% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-20
43% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsNEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vsRUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vsMD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vsWASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vsWIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vsIU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 18 | @USC | W 101-65 | -8.5 | W +27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | @UCLA | L 94-95 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 27 | vsMICH | L 70-84 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 3 | vsORE | W 80-54 | -17.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 8 | @MD | W 78-72 | -14.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 13 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Mar 19 | vs PENN | W 105-70 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 21 | vs VCU | W 76-55 | -12.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 26 | vs HOU | W 65-55 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+27.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
−7.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−12.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
+8.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
−8.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−11.5
19
vsPENN
PENNW 105-70
+9.5
21
vsVCU
VCUW 76-55
+8.5
26
vsHOU
HOUW 65-55
+12.5
covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+14.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
+42.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−5.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
−13.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
+4.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+20.5
19
vsPENN
PENNW 105-70
+24.5
21
vsVCU
VCUW 76-55
−20.5
26
vsHOU
HOUW 65-55
−21.5
over 15under 20avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa
24-12 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Nebraska77–71
- Wvs Florida73–72
- Wvs Clemson67–61
- Lvs Ohio State69–72
- Wvs Maryland75–64
2 days since their last game.
Illinois
27-8 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Houston65–55
- Wvs VCU76–55
- Wvs Penn105–70
- Lvs Wisconsin88–91
- W@ Maryland78–72
2 days since their last game.