Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 26, 7:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament

#43IOWAIowa AP #977▲ winner

Final

#27NEBNebraska AP #471final

Closing lineNEB -1.5✓ IOWA covered by 7.5

Closing total131.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Iowa and Nebraska
IOWA	This season	NEB
23-12	Record	28-6
20-15	ATS	19-15
19-16	O/U	10-24

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IOWA 68–69 NEB · ✗ NEB (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IOWA	43	34	77
NEB	46	25	71

1st half: IOWA 43, NEB 46 (NEB by 3). The model had NEB by 0.4 and a total of 64.4 (actual 89).

Team stats

IOWA		NEB
27-52 52%	Field goals	24-58 41%
13-30 43%	3-pointers	13-38 34%
10-12 83%	Free throws	10-11 91%
26 3 off	Rebounds	35 12 off
18	Assists	19
6	Steals	3
1	Blocks	5
5	Turnovers	10
7	Fouls	14
24	Points in paint	20
8	Fast-break points	6

Players

IOWA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bennett Stirtz G	40	20	2	4	7-15	3-9
Cooper Koch F	37	11	5	1	3-8	3-8
Kael Combs G	27	6	0	5	3-4	0-1
Tavion Banks G	15	2	3	0	1-4	0-0
Cam Manyawu F	14	0	1	2	0-2	0-0
Bench
Tate Sage G	29	19	8	3	6-10	4-7
Alvaro Folgueiras F	29	16	2	2	6-7	2-3
Isaia Howard G	9	3	0	1	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Joey Matteoni, Peyton McCollum, Trey Thompson, Trevin Jirak, Jacob Koch, Brendan Hausen

NEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sam Hoiberg G	37	6	3	6	3-7	0-3
Pryce Sandfort F	34	25	5	2	8-13	6-10
Rienk Mast F	33	9	6	4	4-15	0-7
Jamarques Lawrence G	31	9	1	2	2-5	2-4
Berke Buyuktuncel C	28	2	10	3	1-7	0-4
Bench
Braden Frager F	25	16	1	1	5-8	5-8
Cale Jacobsen G	12	4	5	1	1-3	0-2

Did not play: Quentin Rhymes, Will Cooper, Leo Curtis, Justin Bolis, Kendall Blue, Ugnius Jarusevicius, Connor Essegian, Henry Burt, Jared Garcia

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NEB -1.5	NEB -0.8	IOWA +0.7	W IOWA covered
Total	131.5	137.5	Over 6.0	W Over
Projected score	—	IOWA 68.3 · NEB 69.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -0.4	NEB -3.0
1H total	64.4	89
1H projected score	IOWA 32 · NEB 32.4	IOWA 43 · NEB 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IOWA LLLWW	20-15	57%	4-2	5-5
NEB LWLWW	19-15	56%	4-2	14-12

Venue/role: IOWA neutral site, as underdog; NEB neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA OOOUU	19-16	54%	23-12
NEB UOUUU	10-24	29%	28-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NEB	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

IOWA 6–3 NEBIOWA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · IOWA 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	IOWA 75 @ NEB 84	NEB -4.5	NEB W
Feb 17, 2025-26	NEB 52 @ IOWA 57	IOWA -1.5	IOWA W
Mar 9, 2024-25	IOWA 83 @ NEB 68	NEB -7.5	IOWA W
Jan 7, 2024-25	NEB 87 @ IOWA 97	IOWA -4.5	IOWA W
Jan 12, 2023-24	NEB 76 @ IOWA 94	IOWA -4.5	IOWA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Iowa

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

20-15

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-16

54% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L L W L W L L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

20-1557%

W L W W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L L W W L L L W L W L W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1654%

O U U O O O U U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsRMU	W 101-69	-22.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 7	vsWIU	W 77-58	-30.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 14	vsXAV	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsSEMO	W 99-70	-23.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 20	vsCHST	W 93-54	-31.5	W +7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	vsMISS	W 74-69	-4.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsGCU	W 59-46	-8.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Dec 2	@MSU	L 52-71	+5.5	L −13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsMD	W 83-64	-10.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 11	@ISU	L 62-66	+11.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 128
Dec 14	vsWMU	W 91-51	-25.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 20	vsBUCK	W 94-39	-25.5	W +29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsUML	W 90-62	-33.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 3	vsUCLA	W 74-61	-6.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@MINN	L 67-70	-4.5	L −7.5	130.5	O 137
Jan 11	vsILL	L 69-75	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@PUR	L 72-79	+10.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@IU	W 74-57	+3.5	W +20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	vsRUTG	W 68-62	-17.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 130
Jan 28	vsUSC	W 73-72	-9.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 145
Feb 1	@ORE	W 84-66	-9.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 4	@WASH	W 84-74	-2.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 8	vsNU	W 76-70	-10.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 146
Feb 11	@MD	L 70-77	-10.5	L −17.5	138.5	O 147
Feb 14	vsPUR	L 57-78	+2.5	L −18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsNEB	W 57-52	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 22	@WIS	L 71-84	+2.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 25	vsOSU	W 74-57	-6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 28	@PSU	L 69-71	-9.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsMICH	L 68-71	+9.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 8	@NEB	L 75-84	+4.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 11	vsMD	W 75-64	-11.5	L −0.5	133.5	O 139
Mar 12	vsOSU	L 69-72	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 20	vsCLEM	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	130.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsFLA	W 73-72	+10.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+9.5

WIU

W 77-58

−11.5

XAV

W 81-62

+3.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+5.5

CHST

W 93-54

+7.5

MISS

W 74-69

+0.5

GCU

W 59-46

+4.5

MSU

L 52-71

−13.5

W 83-64

+8.5

ISU

L 62-66

+7.5

WMU

W 91-51

+14.5

BUCK

W 94-39

+29.5

UML

W 90-62

−5.5

UCLA

W 74-61

+6.5

MINN

L 67-70

−7.5

ILL

L 69-75

−4.5

PUR

L 72-79

+3.5

W 74-57

+20.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−11.5

USC

W 73-72

−8.5

ORE

W 84-66

+8.5

WASH

W 84-74

+7.5

W 76-70

−4.5

L 70-77

−17.5

PUR

L 57-78

−18.5

NEB

W 57-52

+3.5

WIS

L 71-84

−10.5

OSU

W 74-57

+10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−11.5

MICH

L 68-71

+6.5

NEB

L 75-84

−4.5

W 75-64

−0.5

OSU

L 69-72

−4.5

CLEM

W 67-61

+4.5

FLA

W 73-72

+11.5

covered 20didn’t cover 15avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+33.5

WIU

W 77-58

−10.5

XAV

W 81-62

−0.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+21.5

CHST

W 93-54

+4.5

MISS

W 74-69

+2.5

GCU

W 59-46

−38.5

MSU

L 52-71

−10.5

W 83-64

+9.5

ISU

L 62-66

−13.5

WMU

W 91-51

+4.5

BUCK

W 94-39

−0.5

UML

W 90-62

+6.5

UCLA

W 74-61

−5.5

MINN

L 67-70

+6.5

ILL

L 69-75

+1.5

PUR

L 72-79

+5.5

W 74-57

−15.5

RUTG

W 68-62

−10.5

USC

W 73-72

+3.5

ORE

W 84-66

+16.5

WASH

W 84-74

+16.5

W 76-70

+6.5

L 70-77

+8.5

PUR

L 57-78

−7.5

NEB

W 57-52

−30.5

WIS

L 71-84

+7.5

OSU

W 74-57

−10.5

PSU

L 69-71

−3.5

MICH

L 68-71

−7.5

NEB

L 75-84

+22.5

W 75-64

+5.5

OSU

L 69-72

+0.5

CLEM

W 67-61

−2.5

FLA

W 73-72

−0.5

over 19under 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nebraska

34 games played

Straight up

28-6

82% wins

Against the spread

19-15

56% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-24

29% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-682%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1556%

W W L W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L W L W L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-2429%

U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsWIN	W 80-73	-14.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsUPST	W 72-63	-25.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCREI	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 10	vsWIS	W 90-60	-1.5	W +28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 13	@ILL	W 83-80	+9.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsUND	W 78-55	-29.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 133
Dec 30	vsUNH	W 86-55	-31.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsMSU	W 58-56	-2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	@OSU	W 72-69	+2.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 10	@IU	W 83-77	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsORE	W 90-55	-10.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	@NU	W 77-58	-4.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsWASH	W 76-66	-10.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 24	@MINN	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 27	@MICH	L 72-75	+11.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 147
Feb 1	vsILL	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 7	@RUTG	W 80-68	-12.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 10	vsPUR	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsNU	W 68-49	-13.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 17	@IOWA	L 52-57	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 21	vsPSU	W 87-64	-17.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 25	vsMD	W 74-61	-16.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 28	@USC	W 82-67	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 3	@UCLA	L 52-72	+1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsIOWA	W 84-75	-4.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPUR	L 58-74	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsTROY	W 76-47	-13.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 21	vsVAN	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

WIN

W 80-73

−7.5

UPST

W 72-63

−16.5

CREI

W 71-50

+15.5

WIS

W 90-60

+28.5

ILL

W 83-80

+12.5

UND

W 78-55

−6.5

UNH

W 86-55

−0.5

MSU

W 58-56

−0.5

OSU

W 72-69

+5.5

W 83-77

+10.5

ORE

W 90-55

+24.5

W 77-58

+14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−0.5

MINN

W 76-57

+14.5

MICH

L 72-75

+8.5

ILL

L 69-78

−10.5

RUTG

W 80-68

−0.5

PUR

L 77-80

−5.5

W 68-49

+5.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−3.5

PSU

W 87-64

+5.5

W 74-61

−3.5

USC

W 82-67

+9.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−18.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+4.5

PUR

L 58-74

−11.5

TROY

W 76-47

+15.5

VAN

W 74-72

+3.5

covered 19didn’t cover 15avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

WIN

W 80-73

−13.5

UPST

W 72-63

−22.5

CREI

W 71-50

−34.5

WIS

W 90-60

−8.5

ILL

W 83-80

+6.5

UND

W 78-55

−18.5

UNH

W 86-55

−5.5

MSU

W 58-56

−32.5

OSU

W 72-69

−14.5

W 83-77

+9.5

ORE

W 90-55

−1.5

W 77-58

−14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−10.5

MINN

W 76-57

−7.5

MICH

L 72-75

−10.5

ILL

L 69-78

−7.5

RUTG

W 80-68

+2.5

PUR

L 77-80

+10.5

W 68-49

−29.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−30.5

PSU

W 87-64

+3.5

W 74-61

−7.5

USC

W 82-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−20.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+22.5

PUR

L 58-74

−13.5

TROY

W 76-47

−16.5

VAN

W 74-72

−0.5

over 10under 24avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Iowa

Nebraska

Iowa

Nebraska