NCAAB

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Day in numbers4 finalFavorites 1-3 ATS2 upsetsO/U 3-1Model Favorite 2-2Open
Games44 final · 0 to play
Lines moved31+ pt since the open · 4 with a line
Totals moved41+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS1-325% covered
Upsets2outright
Over / Under3-175% over
Model Favorite2-250% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
TEX vs PURPUR -7.5 → PUR -8.51 → PUR149.5 → 146.5▼ 3
IOWA vs NEBNEB -2.5 → NEB -1.51 → IOWA133.5 → 131.5▼ 2
ARK vs ARIZARIZ -9.5 → ARIZ -8.51 → ARK165.5 → 166.5▲ 1
ILL vs HOUHOU -2.5 → HOU -2.5no move140.5 → 141.5▲ 1
Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Texas
17-14 · #11 AP #11
77
Purdue
27-8 · #23 AP #2
79
Spread
PUR -8.5
✓ TEX W ATS
Total
146.5 ▼3
▲ Over 156
Projected
73–81
✓ PUR won
Model: TEX by 0.4 ✓ Model: Over 8.0 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Iowa
21-12 · #43 AP #9
77
Nebraska
26-6 · #27 AP #4
71
Spread
NEB -1.5
✓ IOWA W ATS
Total
131.5 ▼2
▲ Over 148
Projected
68–69
✗ NEB lost
Model: IOWA by 0.7 ✓ Model: Over 6.0 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Illinois
24-8 · #4 AP #3
65
Houston
28-6 · #2 AP #2
55
Spread
HOU -2.5
✓ ILL W ATS
Total
141.5 ▲1
▼ Under 120
Projected
71–73
✗ HOU lost
Model: ILL by 0.8 ✓ Model: Over 2.0 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Arkansas
26-8 · #18 AP #4
88
Arizona
32-2 · #5 AP #1
109
Spread
ARIZ -8.5
✓ ARIZ W ATS
Total
166.5 ▲1
▲ Over 197
Projected
81–88
✓ ARIZ won
Model: ARK by 1.0 ✗ Model: Over 2.4 ✓
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
Texas
17-14 · #11
77
Purdue
27-8 · #23
79
 PUR -8.5 146.5 PUR -8.1 TEX +0.4 154.5 Over 8.0 76% PUR W W ›
Final
Iowa
21-12 · #43
77
Nebraska
26-6 · #27
71
 NEB -1.5 131.5 NEB -0.8 IOWA +0.7 137.5 Over 6.0 53% NEB W W ›
Final
Illinois
24-8 · #4
65
Houston
28-6 · #2
55
 HOU -2.5 141.5 HOU -1.7 ILL +0.8 143.5 Over 2.0 56% HOU W L ›
Final
Arkansas
26-8 · #18
88
Arizona
32-2 · #5
109
 ARIZ -8.5 166.5 ARIZ -7.5 ARK +1.0 168.9 Over 2.4 74% ARIZ L W ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record