Toyota Center (Houston) · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
HOU -2.5✓ ILL covered by 12.5
HOU -2.5✓ ILL covered by 12.5Closing total141.5Under by 21.5
 ILL | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26-8 | Record | 30-6 |
| 20-14 | ATS | 19-17 |
| 15-19 | O/U | 15-21 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 71–73 HOU · ✗ HOU (56%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 24 | 41 | 65 |
| HOU | 22 | 33 | 55 |
1st half: ILL 24, HOU 22 (ILL by 2). The model had HOU by 0.9 and a total of 67.2 (actual 46).
Team stats
| ILL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-51 43% | Field goals | 22-64 34% |
| 9-23 39% | 3-pointers | 9-32 28% |
| 12-21 57% | Free throws | 2-2 100% |
| 43 12 off | Rebounds | 34 11 off |
| 13 | Assists | 17 |
| 2 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 38 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 4-14 | 3-6 |
| David Mirkovic F | 34 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 6-13 | 2-6 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 29 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Jake Davis F | 13 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 28 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brandon Lee, Blake Fagbemi, Mihailo Petrovic, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Sharp G | 39 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 7-16 | 3-10 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 37 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Milos Uzan G | 37 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2-11 | 2-6 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 27 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3-12 | 0-3 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 25 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chase McCarty F | 20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mercy Miller G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Cedric Lath, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson, Isiah Harwell, Ramon Walker Jr.
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -2.5
no move
CloseHOU -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open140.5
▲ 1
Close141.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ILL +120 · HOU -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -2.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -1.5
model HOU -1.5
Opened 140.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 upmodel 143.5
model 143.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -2.5 | HOU -1.7 | ILL +0.8 | W ILL covered |
| Total | 141.5 | 143.5 | Over 2.0 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | ILL 70.9 · HOU 72.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | HOU -0.9 | ILL -2.0 |
| 1H total | 67.2 | 46 |
| 1H projected score | ILL 33.1 · HOU 34 | ILL 24 · HOU 22 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| HOU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ILL 0–1 HOUHOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ILL 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2021-22 | HOU 68 vs ILL 53 | ILL +3 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
34 games played
Straight up
26-8
76% wins
Against the spread
20-14
59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-19
44% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vs WASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vs WIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vs IU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 18 | @ USC | W 101-65 | -8.5 | W +27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | @ UCLA | L 94-95 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 27 | vs MICH | L 70-84 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 3 | vs ORE | W 80-54 | -17.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 8 | @MD | W 78-72 | -14.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 13 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Mar 19 | vs PENN | W 105-70 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 21 | vs VCU | W 76-55 | -12.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+27.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
−7.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−12.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
+8.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
−8.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−11.5
19
vsPENN
PENNW 105-70
+9.5
21
vsVCU
VCUW 76-55
+8.5
covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+14.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
+42.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−5.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
−13.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
+4.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+20.5
19
vsPENN
PENNW 105-70
+24.5
21
vsVCU
VCUW 76-55
−20.5
over 15under 19avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Houston
36 games played
Straight up
30-6
83% wins
Against the spread
19-17
53% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-21
42% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vsTENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vsJKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARK | W 94-85 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs MTSU | W 69-60 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 3 | @ CIN | W 67-60 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | vsTTU | W 69-65 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 10 | @ BAY | W 77-55 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | vs WVU | W 77-48 | -13.5 | W +15.5 | 127.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 18 | vs ASU | W 103-73 | -18.5 | W +11.5 | 142.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 24 | @TTU | L 86-90 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 28 | @ TCU | W 79-70 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 31 | vsCIN | W 76-54 | -13.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 4 | vs UCF | W 79-55 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 7 | @ BYU | W 77-66 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 10 | @ UTAH | W 66-52 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 142.5 | U 118 |
| Feb 14 | vs KSU | W 78-64 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 16 | @ ISU | L 67-70 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 137 |
| Feb 21 | vs ARIZ | L 66-73 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 23 | @ KU | L 56-69 | -2.5 | L −15.5 | 138.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 28 | vs COLO | W 102-62 | -20.5 | W +19.5 | 139.5 | O 164 |
| Mar 4 | vsBAY | W 77-64 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 7 | @ OKST | W 82-75 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 12 | vsBYU | W 73-66 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 13 | vsKU | W 69-47 | -5.5 | W +16.5 | 139.5 | U 116 |
| Mar 14 | vsARIZ | L 74-79 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | O 153 |
| Mar 19 | vs IDHO | W 78-47 | -24.5 | W +6.5 | 137.5 | U 125 |
| Mar 21 | vs TA&M | W 88-57 | -10.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+3.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−16.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
+2.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−3.5
10
@BAY
BAYW 77-55
+19.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 77-48
+15.5
18
vsASU
ASUW 103-73
+11.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 86-90
−5.5
28
@TCU
TCUW 79-70
+0.5
31
vsCIN
CINW 76-54
+8.5
4
vsUCF
UCFW 79-55
+8.5
7
@BYU
BYUW 77-66
+9.5
10
@UTAH
UTAHW 66-52
−2.5
14
vsKSU
KSUW 78-64
−8.5
16
@ISU
ISUL 67-70
−0.5
21
vsARIZ
ARIZL 66-73
−13.5
23
@KU
KUL 56-69
−15.5
28
vsCOLO
COLOW 102-62
+19.5
4
vsBAY
BAYW 77-64
+0.5
7
@OKST
OKSTW 82-75
−6.5
12
vsBYU
BYUW 73-66
−2.5
13
vsKU
KUW 69-47
+16.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 74-79
−3.5
19
vsIDHO
IDHOW 78-47
+6.5
21
vsTA&M
TA&MW 88-57
+20.5
covered 19didn’t cover 17avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+32.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−9.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
−8.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−8.5
10
@BAY
BAYW 77-55
−10.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 77-48
−2.5
18
vsASU
ASUW 103-73
+33.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 86-90
+34.5
28
@TCU
TCUW 79-70
+9.5
31
vsCIN
CINW 76-54
−5.5
4
vsUCF
UCFW 79-55
−12.5
7
@BYU
BYUW 77-66
−8.5
10
@UTAH
UTAHW 66-52
−24.5
14
vsKSU
KSUW 78-64
−2.5
16
@ISU
ISUL 67-70
+2.5
21
vsARIZ
ARIZL 66-73
−3.5
23
@KU
KUL 56-69
−13.5
28
vsCOLO
COLOW 102-62
+24.5
4
vsBAY
BAYW 77-64
−2.5
7
@OKST
OKSTW 82-75
+5.5
12
vsBYU
BYUW 73-66
−7.5
13
vsKU
KUW 69-47
−23.5
14
vsARIZ
ARIZL 74-79
+14.5
19
vsIDHO
IDHOW 78-47
−12.5
21
vsTA&M
TA&MW 88-57
+2.5
over 15under 21avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
26-8 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs VCU76–55
- Wvs Penn105–70
- Lvs Wisconsin88–91
- W@ Maryland78–72
- Wvs Oregon80–54
5 days since their last game.
Houston
30-6 overall · 16-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas A&M88–57
- Wvs Idaho78–47
- Lvs Arizona74–79
- Wvs Kansas69–47
- Wvs BYU73–66
5 days since their last game.