Arizona State Sun Devils at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 18, 6:30 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston · Conference game

Final

#2HOUHouston AP #7103▲ winner

Closing lineHOU -18.5✓ HOU covered by 11.5

Closing total142.5Over by 33.5

Season records: Arizona St and Houston
ASU	This season	HOU
10-7	Record	16-1
10-7	ATS	9-8
11-6	O/U	7-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ASU 64–81 HOU · ✓ HOU (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ASU	29	44	73
HOU	56	47	103

1st half: ASU 29, HOU 56 (HOU by 27). The model had HOU by 10.3 and a total of 67.9 (actual 85).

Team stats

ASU		HOU
22-54 41%	Field goals	40-71 56%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	12-25 48%
20-24 83%	Free throws	11-12 92%
30 13 off	Rebounds	33 15 off
16	Assists	22
8	Steals	12
2	Blocks	8
17	Turnovers	10
11	Fouls	15
22	Points in paint	44
17	Fast-break points	12

Players

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	31	8	2	6	2-10	2-7
Noah Meeusen G	28	10	1	3	3-4	2-3
Massamba Diop C	27	6	5	1	1-5	0-0
Bryce Ford G	24	10	3	2	3-8	2-6
Santiago Trouet F	21	9	3	0	2-6	0-1
Bench
Anthony Johnson G	29	12	5	1	5-10	1-4
Allen Mukeba F	24	4	2	3	2-4	0-0
Andrija Grbovic F	16	14	4	0	4-7	2-4

Did not play: Trevor Best, Dame Salane, Jovan Icitovic, Adante' Holiman, Vijay Wallace, Quentin McCoy, Kash Polk, Marcus Adams Jr.

HOU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kingston Flemings G	34	20	4	8	8-14	1-3
Milos Uzan G	33	16	2	3	6-11	4-7
Chris Cenac Jr. F	27	18	8	5	8-15	2-5
Joseph Tugler F	24	12	7	3	6-9	0-0
Emanuel Sharp G	23	16	5	1	5-12	2-5
Bench
Isiah Harwell G	17	8	2	1	2-2	2-2
Kalifa Sakho F	15	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Chase McCarty F	12	5	2	0	1-2	1-2
Mercy Miller G	7	4	1	0	2-3	0-1
Ramon Walker Jr. G	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Cedric Lath C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOU -18.5	HOU -17.5	ASU +1.0	L HOU covered
Total	142.5	144.8	Over 2.3	W Over
Projected score	—	ASU 63.7 · HOU 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -10.3	HOU -27.0
1H total	67.9	85
1H projected score	ASU 28.8 · HOU 39.1	ASU 29 · HOU 56

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LLLWW	10-7	59%	2-2	6-3
HOU LWLWW	9-8	53%	5-4	9-8

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OOOOO	11-6	65%	10-7
HOU UUUUU	7-10	41%	16-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
HOU	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ASU 0–1 HOUHOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ASU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 18, 2024-25	HOU 80 @ ASU 65	ASU +12.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arizona St

17 games played

Straight up

10-7

59% wins

Against the spread

10-7

59% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-6

65% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-759%

W W L W W W W L W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-759%

L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-665%

U U U U O O O O U U O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsUSC	L 75-88	+4.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsOU	W 86-70	+5.5	W +21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 9	vsNAU	W 73-48	-16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsSCU	W 82-79	+1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	@UCLA	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 21	vsORST	L 75-78	-12.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsCOLO	L 89-95	-1.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 184
Jan 7	@BYU	L 76-104	+17.5	L −10.5	168.5	O 180
Jan 10	vsKSU	W 87-84	-1.5	W +1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	@ARIZ	L 82-89	+21.5	W +14.5	167.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

USC

L 75-88

−8.5

W 86-70

+21.5

NAU

W 73-48

+8.5

SCU

W 82-79

+4.5

UCLA

L 77-90

−3.5

ORST

L 75-78

−15.5

COLO

L 89-95

−7.5

BYU

L 76-104

−10.5

KSU

W 87-84

+1.5

ARIZ

L 82-89

+14.5

covered 10didn’t cover 7avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

USC

L 75-88

+1.5

W 86-70

−1.5

NAU

W 73-48

−33.5

SCU

W 82-79

+6.5

UCLA

L 77-90

+24.5

ORST

L 75-78

+5.5

COLO

L 89-95

+27.5

BYU

L 76-104

+11.5

KSU

W 87-84

+1.5

ARIZ

L 82-89

+3.5

over 11under 6avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

17 games played

Straight up

16-1

94% wins

Against the spread

9-8

53% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-10

41% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-194%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W

10 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-853%

L L W L W L L L W W W W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-1041%

U U U O O O O U O U O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 12	vsOAK	W 78-45	-30.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 16	vsAUB	W 73-72	-7.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 20	vsRID	W 91-45	-40.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 24	vsSYR	W 78-74	-14.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTENN	L 73-76	-2.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsND	W 66-56	-11.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 122
Dec 6	vsFSU	W 82-67	-12.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 10	vsJKST	W 80-38	-40.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	vsNOLA	W 99-57	-32.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsARK	W 94-85	-5.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMTSU	W 69-60	-25.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 3	@CIN	W 67-60	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	vsTTU	W 69-65	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 134
Jan 10	@BAY	W 77-55	-2.5	W +19.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 13	vsWVU	W 77-48	-13.5	W +15.5	127.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

OAK

W 78-45

+2.5

AUB

W 73-72

−6.5

RID

W 91-45

+5.5

SYR

W 78-74

−10.5

TENN

L 73-76

−5.5

W 66-56

−1.5

FSU

W 82-67

+2.5

JKST

W 80-38

+1.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+9.5

ARK

W 94-85

+3.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−16.5

CIN

W 67-60

+2.5

TTU

W 69-65

−3.5

BAY

W 77-55

+19.5

WVU

W 77-48

+15.5

covered 9didn’t cover 8avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

OAK

W 78-45

−15.5

AUB

W 73-72

+4.5

RID

W 91-45

+1.5

SYR

W 78-74

+11.5

TENN

L 73-76

+12.5

W 66-56

−10.5

FSU

W 82-67

+0.5

JKST

W 80-38

−19.5

NOLA

W 99-57

+17.5

ARK

W 94-85

+32.5

MTSU

W 69-60

−9.5

CIN

W 67-60

−8.5

TTU

W 69-65

−8.5

BAY

W 77-55

−10.5

WVU

W 77-48

−2.5

over 7under 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Houston Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Arizona St

Houston

Arizona St

Houston