Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 3:00 PM ETDesert Financial Arena · at Arizona St · Conference game

Final

#60ASUArizona St87▲ winner

Closing lineASU -1.5✓ ASU covered by 1.5

Closing total169.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Kansas St and Arizona St
KSU	This season	ASU
9-6	Record	9-6
6-9	ATS	8-7
9-6	O/U	9-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KSU 83–83 ASU · ✓ ASU (51%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KSU	38	46	84
ASU	36	51	87

1st half: KSU 38, ASU 36 (KSU by 2). The model had ASU by 0.1 and a total of 77.8 (actual 74).

Team stats

KSU		ASU
28-70 40%	Field goals	30-64 47%
13-31 42%	3-pointers	3-22 14%
15-21 71%	Free throws	24-32 75%
34 16 off	Rebounds	48 18 off
14	Assists	14
7	Steals	6
3	Blocks	10
13	Turnovers	15
27	Fouls	17
28	Points in paint	50
23	Fast-break points	14

Players

KSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
PJ Haggerty G	38	25	3	3	7-19	3-7
Abdi Bashir Jr. G	35	22	2	4	8-16	6-12
Nate Johnson G	26	7	2	3	2-6	1-4
Elias Rapieque F	21	8	2	0	3-6	2-4
Khamari McGriff F	14	8	3	1	4-7	0-0
Bench
David Castillo G	26	3	4	2	1-7	1-2
Taj Manning F	20	6	4	0	1-2	0-1
Dorin Buca C	19	5	8	1	2-5	0-0
Andrej Kostic G	1	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Mobi Ikegwuruka, Marcus Johnson, Exavier Wilson, CJ Jones, Stephen Osei

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	38	21	1	4	8-17	2-7
Massamba Diop C	31	21	9	1	8-10	0-0
Allen Mukeba F	28	10	8	1	3-4	0-0
Santiago Trouet F	25	10	10	3	5-12	0-2
Anthony Johnson G	23	18	4	3	5-10	0-3
Bench
Noah Meeusen G	31	3	7	2	1-6	1-6
Andrija Grbovic F	24	4	2	0	0-5	0-4

Did not play: Trevor Best, Vijay Wallace, Quentin McCoy, Bryce Ford, Dame Salane, Kash Polk, Jovan Icitovic, Marcus Adams Jr., Adante' Holiman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ASU -1.5	ASU -0.4	KSU +1.1	L ASU covered
Total	169.5	166.3	Under 3.2	L Over
Projected score	—	KSU 83 · ASU 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ASU -0.1	KSU -2.0
1H total	77.8	74
1H projected score	KSU 38.9 · ASU 39	KSU 38 · ASU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWLLL	6-9	40%	1-2	3-3
ASU WLLLL	8-7	53%	3-4	3-4

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOOUO	9-6	60%	9-6
ASU OOOOO	9-6	60%	9-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ASU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KSU 2–1 ASUKSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · KSU 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 11, 2024-25	ASU 66 vs KSU 71	KSU -6.5	ASU W
Feb 23, 2024-25	ASU 66 @ KSU 54	KSU -6.5	ASU W
Feb 4, 2024-25	KSU 71 @ ASU 70	ASU -3.5	KSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas St

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

W W W W W L L L L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

W L L L W W L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-660%

O O O O O O U U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	@IU	L 69-86	+10.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsBGSU	L 66-82	-12.5	L −28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsHALL	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 8	vsMVSU	W 108-49	-38.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 13	@CREI	W 83-76	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsSDAK	W 106-76	-21.5	W +8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 28	vsULM	W 94-85	-32.5	L −23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBYU	L 73-83	+7.5	L −2.5	174.5	U 156
Jan 7	@ARIZ	L 76-101	+17.5	L −7.5	171.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

L 69-86

−6.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−28.5

HALL

L 67-78

−13.5

MVSU

W 108-49

+20.5

CREI

W 83-76

+11.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+8.5

ULM

W 94-85

−23.5

BYU

L 73-83

−2.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

−7.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

L 69-86

−9.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−11.5

HALL

L 67-78

−3.5

MVSU

W 108-49

−3.5

CREI

W 83-76

−0.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+5.5

ULM

W 94-85

+9.5

BYU

L 73-83

−18.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

+5.5

over 9under 6avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona St

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

8-7

53% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

W W L W W W W L W W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-753%

L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-660%

U U U U O O O O U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsUSC	L 75-88	+4.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsOU	W 86-70	+5.5	W +21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 9	vsNAU	W 73-48	-16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsSCU	W 82-79	+1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	@UCLA	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 21	vsORST	L 75-78	-12.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsCOLO	L 89-95	-1.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 184
Jan 7	@BYU	L 76-104	+17.5	L −10.5	168.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

USC

L 75-88

−8.5

W 86-70

+21.5

NAU

W 73-48

+8.5

SCU

W 82-79

+4.5

UCLA

L 77-90

−3.5

ORST

L 75-78

−15.5

COLO

L 89-95

−7.5

BYU

L 76-104

−10.5

covered 8didn’t cover 7avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

USC

L 75-88

+1.5

W 86-70

−1.5

NAU

W 73-48

−33.5

SCU

W 82-79

+6.5

UCLA

L 77-90

+24.5

ORST

L 75-78

+5.5

COLO

L 89-95

+27.5

BYU

L 76-104

+11.5

over 9under 6avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas St

Arizona St

Kansas St

Arizona St