NCAAB

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Day in numbers2 finalFavorites 2-0 ATS0 upsetsO/U 0-2Model Favorite 2-0Open
Games22 final · 0 to play
Lines moved01+ pt since the open · 2 with a line
Totals moved21+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS2-0100% covered
Upsets0outright
Over / Under0-20% over
Model Favorite2-0100% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
IOWA vs ILLILL -6.5 → ILL -6.5no move141.5 → 138.5▼ 3
PUR vs ARIZARIZ -5.5 → ARIZ -5.5no move150.5 → 152.5▲ 2
Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Iowa
21-12 · #43 AP #9
59
Illinois
24-8 · #4 AP #3
71
Spread
ILL -6.5
✓ ILL W ATS
Total
138.5 ▼3
▼ Under 130
Projected
71–77
✓ ILL won
Model: IOWA by 0.1 ✗ Model: Over 9.7 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Purdue
27-8 · #23 AP #2
64
Arizona
32-2 · #5 AP #1
79
Spread
ARIZ -5.5
✓ ARIZ W ATS
Total
152.5 ▲2
▼ Under 143
Projected
76–79
✓ ARIZ won
Model: PUR by 2.6 ✗ Model: Over 2.9 ✗
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
Iowa
21-12 · #43
59
Illinois
24-8 · #4
71
 ILL -6.5 138.5 ILL -6.4 IOWA +0.1 148.2 Over 9.7 71% ILL L L ›
Final
Purdue
27-8 · #23
64
Arizona
32-2 · #5
79
 ARIZ -5.5 152.5 ARIZ -2.9 PUR +2.6 155.4 Over 2.9 60% ARIZ L L ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record