NCAAB

Friday, March 27, 2026

Day in numbers4 finalFavorites 2-2 ATS1 upsetO/U 1-3Model Favorite 3-1Open
Games44 final · 0 to play
Lines moved31+ pt since the open · 4 with a line
Totals moved41+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS2-250% covered
Upsets1outright
Over / Under1-325% over
Model Favorite3-175% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
MSU vs CONNMSU -1.5 → CONN -2.54 → CONN140.5 → 136.5▼ 4
TENN vs ISUISU -4.5 → ISU -2.52 → TENN137.5 → 139.5▲ 2
ALA vs MICHMICH -10.5 → MICH -9.51 → ALA175.5 → 172.5▼ 3
SJU vs DUKEDUKE -6.5 → DUKE -6.5no move141.5 → 140.5▼ 1
Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
St John's
28-6 · #9 AP #5
75
Duke
32-2 · #3 AP #1
80
Spread
DUKE -6.5
✓ SJU W ATS
Total
140.5 ▼1
▲ Over 155
Projected
71–75
✓ DUKE won
Model: SJU by 2.0 ✓ Model: Over 5.4 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Alabama
23-9 · #15 AP #4
77
Michigan
31-3 · #8 AP #1
90
Spread
MICH -9.5
✓ MICH W ATS
Total
172.5 ▼3
▼ Under 167
Projected
85–91
✓ MICH won
Model: ALA by 3.4 ✗ Model: Over 3.4 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Michigan St
25-7 · #10 AP #3
63
UConn
29-5 · #6 AP #2
67
Spread
CONN -2.5
✓ CONN W ATS
Total
136.5 ▼4
▼ Under 130
Projected
70–71
✓ CONN won
Model: MSU by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 3.6 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Tennessee
22-11 · #7 AP #6
76
Iowa State
27-7 · #13 AP #2
62
Spread
ISU -2.5
✓ TENN W ATS
Total
139.5 ▲2
▼ Under 138
Projected
69–72
✗ ISU lost
Model: ISU by 1.3 ✗ Model: Over 1.4 ✗
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
St John's
28-6 · #9
75
Duke
32-2 · #3
80
 DUKE -6.5 140.5 DUKE -4.5 SJU +2.0 145.9 Over 5.4 65% DUKE W W ›
Final
Alabama
23-9 · #15
77
Michigan
31-3 · #8
90
 MICH -9.5 172.5 MICH -6.1 ALA +3.4 175.9 Over 3.4 70% MICH L L ›
Final
Michigan St
25-7 · #10
63
UConn
29-5 · #6
67
 CONN -2.5 136.5 CONN -1.0 MSU +1.5 140.1 Over 3.6 53% CONN L L ›
Final
Tennessee
22-11 · #7
76
Iowa State
27-7 · #13
62
 ISU -2.5 139.5 ISU -3.8 ISU +1.3 140.9 Over 1.4 63% ISU L L ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record