Capital One Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
CONN -2.5✓ CONN covered by 1.5
CONN -2.5✓ CONN covered by 1.5Closing total136.5Under by 6.5
 MSU | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 27-7 | Record | 31-5 |
| 18-16 | ATS | 13-23 |
| 16-18 | O/U | 18-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 70–71 CONN · ✓ CONN (53%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 27 | 36 | 63 |
| CONN | 35 | 32 | 67 |
1st half: MSU 27, CONN 35 (CONN by 8). The model had CONN by 0.5 and a total of 65.6 (actual 62).
Team stats
| MSU | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-58 40% | Field goals | 24-52 46% |
| 4-16 25% | 3-pointers | 9-21 43% |
| 13-18 72% | Free throws | 10-16 63% |
| 39 13 off | Rebounds | 30 6 off |
| 13 | Assists | 20 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 36 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 5-15 | 1-3 |
| Coen Carr F | 34 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-3 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 30 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-4 |
| Carson Cooper C | 28 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Scott F | 23 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Cam Ward F | 19 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Divine Ugochukwu, Kaleb Glenn, Nick Sanders, Jesse McCulloch, Brennan Walton, Colin Walton
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 37 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 6-12 | 3-8 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 33 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8-16 | 0-0 |
| Solo Ball G | 32 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 29 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 23 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Malachi Smith G | 17 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Eric Reibe C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Dwayne Koroma, Jacob Ross, Alec Millender, Jacob Furphy, Uros Paunovic, Rrezon Elezaj
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -1.5
4 → CONN
CloseCONN -2.5
4 pts toward CONN
Total
Open140.5
▼ 4
Close136.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
MSU +120 · CONN -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -1.5 · closed CONN -2.5 · moved 4 toward CONNmodel CONN -1
model CONN -1
Opened 140.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 4 downmodel 140
model 140
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -2.5 | CONN -1.0 | MSU +1.5 | L CONN covered |
| Total | 136.5 | 140.1 | Over 3.6 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MSU 69.6 · CONN 70.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CONN -0.5 | CONN -8.0 |
| 1H total | 65.6 | 62 |
| 1H projected score | MSU 32.6 · CONN 33 | MSU 27 · CONN 35 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| CONN | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSU 1–0 CONNMSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MSU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2021-22 | CONN 60 vs MSU 64 | MSU +2.5 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
34 games played
Straight up
27-7
79% wins
Against the spread
18-16
53% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-18
47% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @ MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs ILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 13 | @ WIS | L 71-92 | -1.5 | L −22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | vs UCLA | W 82-59 | -8.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 22 | vs OSU | W 66-60 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 26 | @ PUR | W 76-74 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @IU | W 77-64 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 5 | vsRUTG | W 91-87 | -20.5 | L −16.5 | 141.5 | O 178 |
| Mar 8 | @MICH | L 80-90 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsUCLA | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Mar 19 | vs NDSU | W 92-67 | -16.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 21 | vs LOU | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
−22.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+14.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−4.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+7.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
+10.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
−16.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+0.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAL 84-88
−9.5
19
vsNDSU
NDSUW 92-67
+8.5
21
vsLOU
LOUW 77-69
+2.5
covered 18didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
+13.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+1.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−20.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+6.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
−3.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
+36.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+17.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAL 84-88
+30.5
19
vsNDSU
NDSUW 92-67
+14.5
21
vsLOU
LOUW 77-69
−5.5
over 16under 18avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
36 games played
Straight up
31-5
86% wins
Against the spread
13-23
36% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-18
50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vsILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vs VILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 11 | @BTLR | W 80-70 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | vsGTWN | W 79-75 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vsCREI | L 84-91 | -15.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 21 | @VILL | W 73-63 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | vsSJU | W 72-40 | -5.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 28 | vsHALL | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Mar 7 | @MARQ | L 62-68 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 12 | vsXAV | W 93-68 | -17.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Mar 13 | vsGTWN | W 67-51 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 118 |
| Mar 14 | @SJU | L 52-72 | -2.5 | L −22.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 20 | vs FUR | W 82-71 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 133.5 | O 153 |
| Mar 22 | vsUCLA | W 73-57 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
−1.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
−12.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
−22.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
+6.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
+26.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
−8.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−15.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+7.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
+1.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−22.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
−9.5
22
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-57
+10.5
covered 13didn’t cover 23avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
+6.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
+15.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
+31.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
−5.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
−33.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
+7.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−13.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+10.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
−20.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−15.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
+19.5
22
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-57
−5.5
over 18under 18avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
27-7 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisville77–69
- Wvs N Dakota St92–67
- Lvs UCLA84–88
- L@ Michigan80–90
- Wvs Rutgers91–87
6 days since their last game.
UConn
31-5 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UCLA73–57
- Wvs Furman82–71
- L@ St John's52–72
- Wvs Georgetown67–51
- Wvs Xavier93–68
5 days since their last game.