United Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
MICH -9.5✓ MICH covered by 3.5
MICH -9.5✓ MICH covered by 3.5Closing total172.5Under by 5.5
 ALA | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 25-9 | Record | 33-3 |
| 16-18 | ATS | 16-20 |
| 19-15 | O/U | 15-21 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ALA 85–91 MICH · ✓ MICH (70%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 49 | 28 | 77 |
| MICH | 47 | 43 | 90 |
1st half: ALA 49, MICH 47 (ALA by 2). The model had MICH by 3.5 and a total of 82.0 (actual 96).
Team stats
| ALA | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-69 36% | Field goals | 33-66 50% |
| 14-47 30% | 3-pointers | 13-27 48% |
| 13-14 93% | Free throws | 11-20 55% |
| 32 11 off | Rebounds | 46 13 off |
| 14 | Assists | 22 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 8 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| ALA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labaron Philon Jr. G | 39 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 10-21 | 6-14 |
| Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G | 37 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 5-15 | 3-12 |
| Aiden Sherrell F | 31 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-5 |
| London Jemison F | 23 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Amari Allen G | 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Houston Mallette G | 25 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen F | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Noah Williamson C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jalil Bethea G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Martin, Collins Onyejiaka, Jack Fagan, Klark James, Keitenn Bristow, Davion Hannah, Aden Holloway, Preston Murphy Jr.
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 34 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 8-12 | 4-5 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 34 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 6-14 | 3-8 |
| Aday Mara C | 27 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 24 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 28 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 27 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 6-10 | 3-4 |
| Will Tschetter F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Malick Kordel, Ricky Liburd, Oscar Goodman, Howard Eisley Jr., L.J. Cason, Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -9.5
ModelMICH -6.1
Model edgeALA +3.4
L MICH covered
Total
Market172.5
Model175.9
Model edgeOver 3.4
L Under
Projected score
ALA 84.9 · MICH 91
ALA 77 · MICH 90
Win probability
MICH 70%
1st half
Spread
MICH -3.5
ALA -2.0
Total
82.0
96 points
Projected score
ALA 39.3 · MICH 42.8
ALA 49 · MICH 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -10.5
1 → ALA
CloseMICH -9.5
1 pt toward ALA
Total
Open175.5
▼ 3
Close172.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
ALA +380 · MICH -500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -10.5 · closed MICH -9.5 · moved 1 toward ALAmodel MICH -6
model MICH -6
Opened 175.5 · closed 172.5 · moved 3 downmodel 176
model 176
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| MICH | 8-2 80% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Alabama
34 games played
Straight up
25-9
74% wins
Against the spread
16-18
47% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-15
56% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UND | W 91-62 | -36.5 | L −7.5 | 170.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ SJU | W 103-96 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 13 | vs PUR | L 80-87 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 19 | vs ILL | W 90-86 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 24 | vs GONZ | L 85-95 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs UNLV | W 115-76 | -13.5 | W +25.5 | 181.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 26 | vs MD | W 105-72 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLEM | W 90-84 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 7 | vs UTSA | W 97-55 | -33.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ARIZ | L 75-96 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 17 | vs USF | W 104-93 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs KENN | W 92-81 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 182.5 | U 173 |
| Dec 29 | vs YALE | W 102-78 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs UK | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ VAN | L 90-96 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vs TEX | L 88-92 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 13 | @ MSST | W 97-82 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | @ OU | W 83-81 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 177.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 24 | vs TENN | L 73-79 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 27 | vs MIZ | W 90-64 | -10.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 1 | @ FLA | L 77-100 | +9.5 | L −13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 4 | vs TA&M | W 100-97 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 180.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 7 | @ AUB | W 96-92 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 11 | @ MISS | W 93-74 | -6.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 14 | vs SC | W 89-75 | -17.5 | L −3.5 | 170.5 | U 164 |
| Feb 18 | vs ARK | W 117-115 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 181.5 | O 232 |
| Feb 21 | @ LSU | W 90-83 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 172.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 25 | vsMSST | W 100-75 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 176.5 | U 175 |
| Feb 28 | @TENN | W 71-69 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 3 | @ UGA | L 88-98 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 179.5 | O 186 |
| Mar 7 | vsAUB | W 96-84 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 175.5 | O 180 |
| Mar 13 | vsMISS | L 79-80 | -12.5 | L −13.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Mar 20 | vs HOF | W 90-70 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 158.5 | O 160 |
| Mar 22 | vs TTU | W 90-65 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−7.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+11.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−10.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
+6.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
−5.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+25.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+18.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
−2.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
+8.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−18.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
−3.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
+9.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
−2.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
−15.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+10.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−3.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−10.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
+15.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
−13.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
−5.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+6.5
11
@MISS
MISSW 93-74
+12.5
14
vsSC
SCW 89-75
−3.5
18
vsARK
ARKW 117-115
−1.5
21
@LSU
LSUW 90-83
−0.5
25
vsMSST
MSSTW 100-75
+12.5
28
@TENN
TENNW 71-69
+7.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 88-98
−11.5
7
vsAUB
AUBW 96-84
+6.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 79-80
−13.5
20
vsHOF
HOFW 90-70
+8.5
22
vsTTU
TTUW 90-65
+23.5
covered 16didn’t cover 18avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−17.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+26.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−5.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
−4.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
+1.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+9.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+10.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
+8.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
−19.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−7.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
+18.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
−10.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
+9.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
+2.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+7.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−13.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−15.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
−13.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
+0.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
+16.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+12.5
11
@MISS
MISSW 93-74
+2.5
14
vsSC
SCW 89-75
−6.5
18
vsARK
ARKW 117-115
+50.5
21
@LSU
LSUW 90-83
+0.5
25
vsMSST
MSSTW 100-75
−1.5
28
@TENN
TENNW 71-69
−22.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 88-98
+6.5
7
vsAUB
AUBW 96-84
+4.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 79-80
−7.5
20
vsHOF
HOFW 90-70
+1.5
22
vsTTU
TTUW 90-65
−9.5
over 19under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
36 games played
Straight up
33-3
92% wins
Against the spread
16-20
44% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-21
42% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vsAUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vsGONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vs UCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vs DUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | @ILL | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 5 | @ IOWA | W 71-68 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 8 | vsMSU | W 90-80 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsOSU | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 14 | vsWIS | W 68-65 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 15 | vsPUR | L 72-80 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 19 | vs HOW | W 101-80 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 21 | vs SLU | W 95-72 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
+12.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−6.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
−0.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−8.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−9.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
−12.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
−9.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+10.5
covered 16didn’t cover 20avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
−5.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−7.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
+17.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−17.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−28.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
+2.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
+29.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+5.5
over 15under 21avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Alabama
25-9 overall · 13-6 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas Tech90–65
- Wvs Hofstra90–70
- Lvs Ole Miss79–80
- Wvs Auburn96–84
- L@ Georgia88–98
5 days since their last game.
Michigan
33-3 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Saint Louis95–72
- Wvs Howard101–80
- Lvs Purdue72–80
- Wvs Wisconsin68–65
- Wvs Ohio State71–67
6 days since their last game.