Pete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU · Conference game
Closing line
ALA -7.5✓ LSU covered by 0.5
ALA -7.5✓ LSU covered by 0.5Closing total172.5Over by 0.5
| ALA | This season | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 19-7 | Record | 14-12 |
| 11-15 | ATS | 15-11 |
| 15-11 | O/U | 11-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ALA 90–85 LSU · ✓ ALA (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 43 | 47 | 90 |
| LSU | 40 | 43 | 83 |
1st half: ALA 43, LSU 40 (ALA by 3). The model had ALA by 3.4 and a total of 81.8 (actual 83).
Team stats
| ALA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-58 43% | Field goals | 29-69 42% |
| 10-30 33% | 3-pointers | 9-20 45% |
| 30-37 81% | Free throws | 16-22 73% |
| 39 13 off | Rebounds | 39 18 off |
| 13 | Assists | 14 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 21 | Fouls | 28 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| ALA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Allen G | 32 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Aden Holloway G | 29 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 5-13 | 1-6 |
| Labaron Philon Jr. G | 24 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Aiden Sherrell F | 20 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| London Jemison F | 19 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G | 28 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Houston Mallette G | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen F | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Noah Williamson C | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jalil Bethea G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Klark James, Jack Fagan, Jacob Martin, Preston Murphy Jr., Collins Onyejiaka, Keitenn Bristow, Davion Hannah
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reece G | 39 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 5-10 | 1-4 |
| Marquel Sutton F | 35 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 7-16 | 1-2 |
| Max Mackinnon G | 30 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-16 | 2-6 |
| Pablo Tamba F | 26 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 24 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Rashad King G | 21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| PJ Carter G | 16 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Robert Miller III F | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Marcus Vaughn, Ron Zipper, Matt Gilhool, Jaden Bobbett, Mazi Mosley, Jalen Reed, Dedan Thomas Jr.
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketALA -7.5
ModelALA -5.5
Model edgeLSU +2.0
W LSU covered
Total
Market172.5
Model175.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
W Over
Projected score
ALA 90.3 · LSU 84.8
ALA 90 · LSU 83
Win probability
ALA 68%
1st half
Spread
ALA -3.4
ALA -3.0
Total
81.8
83 points
Projected score
ALA 42.6 · LSU 39.2
ALA 43 · LSU 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -5.5
2 → ALA
CloseALA -7.5
2 pts toward ALA
Total
Open172.5
no move
Close172.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ALA -325 · LSU +260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -5.5 · closed ALA -7.5 · moved 2 toward ALAmodel ALA -5.5
model ALA -5.5
Opened 172.5 · unchangedmodel 175
model 175
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| LSU | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
ALA 6–1 LSUALA leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ALA has won the last 5 meetings · ALA 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | LSU 73 @ ALA 80 | ALA -17.5 | LSU W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | ALA 109 @ LSU 92 | LSU +8.5 | ALA W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | LSU 88 @ ALA 109 | ALA -12.5 | ALA W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | ALA 79 @ LSU 69 | LSU +11.5 | LSU W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | LSU 66 @ ALA 106 | ALA -14.5 | ALA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Alabama
26 games played
Straight up
19-7
73% wins
Against the spread
11-15
42% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-11
58% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UND | W 91-62 | -36.5 | L −7.5 | 170.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ SJU | W 103-96 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 13 | vs PUR | L 80-87 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 19 | vs ILL | W 90-86 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 24 | vs GONZ | L 85-95 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs UNLV | W 115-76 | -13.5 | W +25.5 | 181.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 26 | vs MD | W 105-72 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLEM | W 90-84 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 7 | vs UTSA | W 97-55 | -33.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ARIZ | L 75-96 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 17 | vs USF | W 104-93 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs KENN | W 92-81 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 182.5 | U 173 |
| Dec 29 | vs YALE | W 102-78 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs UK | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ VAN | L 90-96 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vs TEX | L 88-92 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 13 | @ MSST | W 97-82 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | @ OU | W 83-81 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 177.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 24 | vs TENN | L 73-79 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 27 | vs MIZ | W 90-64 | -10.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 1 | @ FLA | L 77-100 | +9.5 | L −13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 4 | vs TA&M | W 100-97 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 180.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 7 | @ AUB | W 96-92 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 11 | @ MISS | W 93-74 | -6.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 14 | vs SC | W 89-75 | -17.5 | L −3.5 | 170.5 | U 164 |
| Feb 18 | vs ARK | W 117-115 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 181.5 | O 232 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−7.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+11.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−10.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
+6.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
−5.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+25.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+18.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
−2.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
+8.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−18.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
−3.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
+9.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
−2.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
−15.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+10.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−3.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−10.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
+15.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
−13.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
−5.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+6.5
11
@MISS
MISSW 93-74
+12.5
14
vsSC
SCW 89-75
−3.5
18
vsARK
ARKW 117-115
−1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 15avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−17.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+26.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−5.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
−4.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
+1.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+9.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+10.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
+8.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
−19.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−7.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
+18.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
−10.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
+9.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
+2.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+7.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−13.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−15.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
−13.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
+0.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
+16.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+12.5
11
@MISS
MISSW 93-74
+2.5
14
vsSC
SCW 89-75
−6.5
18
vsARK
ARKW 117-115
+50.5
over 15under 11avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
LSU
26 games played
Straight up
14-12
54% wins
Against the spread
15-11
58% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-15
42% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vs NOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs TTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs SMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs SELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 29 | vs USM | W 90-62 | -21.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 3 | @TA&M | L 72-75 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | vsSC | L 68-78 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | @VAN | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | vsUK | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | vsMIZ | W 78-70 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | @FLA | L 61-79 | +15.5 | L −2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ARK | L 81-85 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 28 | vsMSST | L 66-80 | -7.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @SC | W 92-87 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 7 | vs UGA | L 71-83 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 10 | vsARK | L 62-91 | +4.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 14 | @TENN | L 63-73 | +14.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 17 | @TEX | L 85-88 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
+6.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
+2.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
−17.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
+2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
+2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
+6.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−2.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+6.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−21.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+2.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−10.5
10
vsARK
ARKL 62-91
−24.5
14
@TENN
TENNL 63-73
+4.5
17
@TEX
TEXL 85-88
+7.5
covered 15didn’t cover 11avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
−2.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
−21.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
+0.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
−2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
−2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
−0.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−18.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+2.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−8.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+31.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−7.5
10
vsARK
ARKL 62-91
−6.5
14
@TENN
TENNL 63-73
−7.5
17
@TEX
TEXL 85-88
+22.5
over 11under 15avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Alabama
19-7 overall · 9-4 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arkansas117–115
- Wvs South Carolina89–75
- W@ Ole Miss93–74
- W@ Auburn96–92
- Wvs Texas A&M100–97
3 days since their last game.
LSU
14-12 overall · 2-11 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas85–88
- L@ Tennessee63–73
- Lvs Arkansas62–91
- Lvs Georgia71–83
- W@ South Carolina92–87
4 days since their last game.