UNLV Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 11:59 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

#98UNLVUNLV76final

Final

#15ALAAlabama AP #8115▲ winner

Closing lineALA -13.5✓ ALA covered by 25.5

Closing total181.5Over by 9.5

Season records: UNLV and Alabama
UNLV	This season	ALA
3-3	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
5-1	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNLV 81–98 ALA · ✓ ALA (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNLV	36	40	76
ALA	51	64	115

1st half: UNLV 36, ALA 51 (ALA by 15). The model had ALA by 10.0 and a total of 83.9 (actual 87).

Team stats

UNLV		ALA
30-71 42%	Field goals	36-65 55%
9-28 32%	3-pointers	14-33 42%
7-14 50%	Free throws	29-35 83%
28 10 off	Rebounds	48 14 off
16	Assists	20
8	Steals	7
2	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	12
23	Fouls	14
42	Points in paint	42
4	Fast-break points	16

Players

UNLV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn G	34	25	4	1	9-19	3-8
Tyrin Jones F	33	4	3	6	2-4	0-0
Howie Fleming Jr. G	32	7	4	1	3-6	1-1
Kimani Hamilton F	32	13	5	4	6-15	0-3
Issac Williamson G	29	18	2	2	6-16	4-10
Bench
Al Green G	18	7	1	0	3-5	1-3
Walter Brown F	12	2	2	2	1-3	0-1
Ladji Dembele F	10	0	2	0	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Xavier Brumfield, Jalen Cunningham, Mason Abittan, Naas Cunningham, Jacob Bannarbie, Myles Che, Emmanuel Stephen

ALA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aden Holloway G	25	26	4	4	9-14	5-6
Labaron Philon Jr. G	23	13	4	4	6-10	0-3
Houston Mallette G	21	19	2	2	5-14	4-12
Taylor Bol Bowen F	20	12	7	0	3-6	1-4
Aiden Sherrell F	13	7	8	1	3-5	0-0
Bench
Davion Hannah G	25	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
London Jemison F	24	18	5	0	5-7	2-3
Amari Allen G	18	13	5	6	4-6	2-4
Noah Williamson C	17	4	6	2	1-1	0-0
Keitenn Bristow F	12	3	3	0	0-2	0-1
Jacob Martin C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jack Fagan, Klark James, Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Collins Onyejiaka, Preston Murphy Jr., Jalil Bethea

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ALA -13.5	ALA -16.9	ALA +3.4	W ALA covered
Total	181.5	179.2	Under 2.3	L Over
Projected score	—	UNLV 81.2 · ALA 98

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALA -10.0	ALA -15.0
1H total	83.9	87
1H projected score	UNLV 36.9 · ALA 47	UNLV 36 · ALA 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNLV WLWWL	3-3	50%	0-1	1-1
ALA LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: UNLV neutral site, as underdog; ALA neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OOOOU	5-1	83%	3-3
ALA UOUUO	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLVlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%
ALAlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNLV

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +13 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUTM	L 81-86	-16.5	L −21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 8	vsUTC	W 101-69	-7.5	W +24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 11	vsMONT	L 93-102	-10.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 16	@MEM	W 92-78	+9.5	W +23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsJOES	W 99-85	-10.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsMD	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

−21.5

UTC

W 101-69

+24.5

MONT

L 93-102

−19.5

MEM

W 92-78

+23.5

JOES

W 99-85

+3.5

L 67-74

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

+20.5

UTC

W 101-69

+14.5

MONT

L 93-102

+37.5

MEM

W 92-78

+6.5

JOES

W 99-85

+22.5

L 67-74

−23.5

over 5under 1avg +13 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 13	vsPUR	L 80-87	-3.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 19	vsILL	W 90-86	+2.5	W +6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 24	vsGONZ	L 85-95	+4.5	L −5.5	178.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

PUR

L 80-87

−10.5

ILL

W 90-86

+6.5

GONZ

L 85-95

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

PUR

L 80-87

−5.5

ILL

W 90-86

−4.5

GONZ

L 85-95

+1.5

over 2under 3avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNLV Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UNLV

Alabama

UNLV

Alabama