United Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
MICH -4.5✓ PUR covered by 12.5
MICH -4.5✓ PUR covered by 12.5Closing total149.5Over by 2.5
 PUR | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 26-8 | Record | 31-2 |
| 14-20 | ATS | 15-18 |
| 16-18 | O/U | 12-21 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PUR 76–81 MICH · ✗ MICH (65%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 38 | 42 | 80 |
| MICH | 38 | 34 | 72 |
1st half: PUR 38, MICH 38 (tied). The model had MICH by 2.6 and a total of 73.1 (actual 76).
Team stats
| PUR | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-57 53% | Field goals | 30-64 47% |
| 4-14 29% | 3-pointers | 7-24 29% |
| 16-22 73% | Free throws | 5-6 83% |
| 29 7 off | Rebounds | 33 11 off |
| 21 | Assists | 15 |
| 4 | Steals | 2 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 38 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 6-12 | 0-3 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 33 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 28 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 10-15 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 27 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 25 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jack Benter G | 24 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Omer Mayer G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Gicarri Harris G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Liam Murphy, Antione West Jr, Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Raleigh Burgess, Sam King, Jace Rayl
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Cadeau G | 38 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 4-12 | 1-5 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 35 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 8-14 | 4-7 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Aday Mara C | 27 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 24 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 23 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Will Tschetter F | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Malick Kordel, Ricky Liburd, Oscar Goodman, Howard Eisley Jr., L.J. Cason, Charlie May, Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -6.5
2 → PUR
CloseMICH -4.5
2 pts toward PUR
Total
Open152.5
▼ 3
Close149.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
PUR +200 · MICH -245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -6.5 · closed MICH -4.5 · moved 2 toward PURmodel MICH -4.5 matches the line
model MICH -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 152.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 3 downmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -4.5 | MICH -4.5 | — | PUR covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 156.3 | Over 6.8 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | PUR 75.9 · MICH 80.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -2.6 | PK |
| 1H total | 73.1 | 76 |
| 1H projected score | PUR 35.2 · MICH 37.8 | PUR 38 · MICH 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
PUR 5–4 MICHPUR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MICH has won the last 3 meetings · PUR 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2025-26 | MICH 91 @ PUR 80 | PUR +2.5 | MICH W |
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | PUR 68 vs MICH 86 | MICH +2.5 | MICH W |
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | PUR 73 @ MICH 75 | MICH -2.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 24, 2024-25 | MICH 64 @ PUR 91 | PUR -4.5 | PUR W |
| Feb 25, 2023-24 | PUR 84 @ MICH 76 | MICH +13.5 | MICH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Purdue
34 games played
Straight up
26-8
76% wins
Against the spread
14-20
41% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-18
47% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @ RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vs MINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vs PSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs IOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @ UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs ILL | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 27 | @ IU | L 67-72 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 1 | @ MD | W 93-63 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vs ORE | W 68-64 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 10 | @ NEB | W 80-77 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | @IOWA | W 78-57 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 17 | vsMICH | L 80-91 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 20 | vsIU | W 93-64 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 26 | vs MSU | L 74-76 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @ OSU | L 74-82 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Mar 4 | @ NU | W 70-66 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 7 | vsWIS | L 93-97 | -9.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | O 190 |
| Mar 12 | vsNU | W 81-68 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Mar 13 | vsNEB | W 74-58 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Mar 14 | vsUCLA | W 73-66 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
−11.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−9.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+14.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−15.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+5.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
+18.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+17.5
26
vsMSU
MSUL 74-76
−7.5
1
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
−14.5
4
@NU
NUW 70-66
−8.5
7
vsWIS
WISL 93-97
−13.5
12
vsNU
NUW 81-68
−0.5
13
vsNEB
NEBW 74-58
+11.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-66
−0.5
covered 14didn’t cover 20avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
+17.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−11.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+7.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−12.5
10
@NEB
NEBW 80-77
+10.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAW 78-57
−7.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 80-91
+14.5
20
vsIU
IUW 93-64
+6.5
26
vsMSU
MSUL 74-76
+6.5
1
@OSU
OSUL 74-82
+6.5
4
@NU
NUW 70-66
−9.5
7
vsWIS
WISL 93-97
+35.5
12
vsNU
NUW 81-68
+9.5
13
vsNEB
NEBW 74-58
−13.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-66
−4.5
over 16under 18avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
33 games played
Straight up
31-2
94% wins
Against the spread
15-18
45% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-21
36% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total
Against the spread
15-1845%
4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsOAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vsAUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vsRUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vsUSC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vsIU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vsOSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vsNEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vsUCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vs DUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vsMINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | @ILL | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 5 | @IOWA | W 71-68 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 8 | vsMSU | W 90-80 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsOSU | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 14 | vsWIS | W 68-65 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
+12.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−6.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
−0.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−8.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−9.5
covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
−5.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−7.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
+17.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−17.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−28.5
over 12under 21avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Purdue
26-8 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UCLA73–66
- Wvs Nebraska74–58
- Wvs Northwestern81–68
- Lvs Wisconsin93–97
- W@ Northwestern70–66
1 day since their last game.
Michigan
31-2 overall · 21-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wisconsin68–65
- Wvs Ohio State71–67
- Wvs Michigan St90–80
- W@ Iowa71–68
- W@ Illinois84–70
1 day since their last game.