UConn Huskies at St. John's Red Storm: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 14, 6:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at St John's · Conference game · Conference tournament

#6CONNUConn AP #652final

Final

#9SJUSt John's AP #1372▲ winner

Closing lineCONN -2.5✓ SJU covered by 22.5

Closing total139.5Under by 15.5

Season records: UConn and St John's
CONN	This season	SJU
29-4	Record	27-6
12-21	ATS	19-14
17-16	O/U	13-20

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CONN 72–74 SJU · ✓ SJU (57%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CONN	27	25	52
SJU	40	32	72

1st half: CONN 27, SJU 40 (SJU by 13). The model had SJU by 1.1 and a total of 68.0 (actual 67).

Team stats

CONN		SJU
19-56 34%	Field goals	27-56 48%
3-19 16%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
11-14 79%	Free throws	13-17 76%
38 17 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
11	Assists	13
6	Steals	10
2	Blocks	8
16	Turnovers	8
16	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	32
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

CONN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Karaban F	36	7	5	5	3-8	1-5
Silas Demary Jr. G	31	6	2	2	1-6	0-2
Solo Ball G	30	3	3	1	1-7	0-4
Tarris Reed Jr. C	29	17	7	0	8-17	0-0
Braylon Mullins G	26	5	6	1	2-9	1-5
Bench
Jayden Ross F	24	3	4	1	1-3	1-2
Eric Reibe C	11	6	3	0	2-3	0-0
Malachi Smith G	10	5	2	1	1-3	0-1
Alec Millender G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jacob Furphy G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Uros Paunovic G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma, Jaylin Stewart, Rrezon Elezaj

SJU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dillon Mitchell F	39	9	9	3	4-5	0-0
Bryce Hopkins F	38	18	5	2	7-9	2-2
Zuby Ejiofor F	33	18	9	2	7-11	2-3
Dylan Darling G	23	8	1	5	3-11	0-6
Oziyah Sellers G	20	14	1	0	4-8	1-2
Bench
Joson Sanon G	16	2	0	1	1-6	0-5
Ian Jackson G	15	3	0	0	1-3	0-1
Ruben Prey F	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Lefteris Liotopoulos G	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Sadiku Ibine Ayo F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Handje Tamba, Kelvin Odih, Casper Pohto, Fotis Konstantinidis, Imran Suljanovic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CONN -2.5	SJU -2.0	SJU +4.5	W SJU covered
Total	139.5	145.5	Over 6.0	L Under
Projected score	—	CONN 71.7 · SJU 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJU -1.1	SJU -13.0
1H total	68.0	67
1H projected score	CONN 33.5 · SJU 34.6	CONN 27 · SJU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WLLWW	12-21	36%	5-6	12-21
SJU WLWWW	19-14	58%	10-9	2-2

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; SJU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UOUOU	17-16	52%	29-4
SJU UUUUO	13-20	39%	27-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
SJU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

CONN 7–4 SJUCONN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CONN 3-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 25, 2025-26	SJU 40 @ CONN 72	CONN -5.5	CONN W
Feb 6, 2025-26	CONN 72 @ SJU 81	SJU +1.5	SJU W
Feb 23, 2024-25	CONN 75 @ SJU 89	SJU -3.5	SJU W
Feb 7, 2024-25	SJU 68 @ CONN 62	CONN -4.5	SJU W
Mar 15, 2023-24	SJU 90 @ CONN 95	CONN -9.5	SJU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UConn

33 games played

Straight up

29-4

88% wins

Against the spread

12-21

36% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

29-488%

W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2136%

L W L L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L W W L L L L W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1652%

U O U O U U U U O O U U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNHVN	W 79-55	-42.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsUML	W 110-47	-36.5	W +26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsCOLU	W 89-62	-32.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsBYU	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsARIZ	L 67-71	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 23	vsBRY	W 72-49	-36.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsILL	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 2	@KU	W 61-56	-3.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 5	vsETAM	W 83-59	-36.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 9	vsFLA	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 12	vsTEX	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 134
Dec 16	vsBTLR	W 79-60	-15.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 21	@DEP	W 72-54	-12.5	W +5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@XAV	W 90-67	-11.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 4	vsMARQ	W 73-57	-17.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	@PROV	W 103-98	-9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 10	vsDEP	W 72-60	-19.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 13	@HALL	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Jan 17	@GTWN	W 64-62	-11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsVILL	W 75-67	-11.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 27	vsPROV	W 87-81	-15.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 31	@CREI	W 85-58	-6.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 3	vsXAV	W 92-60	-16.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 6	@SJU	L 72-81	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 11	@BTLR	W 80-70	-11.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 14	vsGTWN	W 79-75	-16.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsCREI	L 84-91	-15.5	L −22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@VILL	W 73-63	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsSJU	W 72-40	-5.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsHALL	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 138
Mar 7	@MARQ	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsXAV	W 93-68	-17.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 161
Mar 13	vsGTWN	W 67-51	-14.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−18.5

UML

W 110-47

+26.5

COLU

W 89-62

−5.5

BYU

W 86-84

−4.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−8.5

BRY

W 72-49

−13.5

ILL

W 74-61

+8.5

W 61-56

+1.5

ETAM

W 83-59

−12.5

FLA

W 77-73

−0.5

TEX

W 71-63

−3.5

BTLR

W 79-60

+3.5

DEP

W 72-54

+5.5

XAV

W 90-67

+11.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−1.5

PROV

W 103-98

−4.5

DEP

W 72-60

−7.5

HALL

W 69-64

−1.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−9.5

VILL

W 75-67

−3.5

PROV

W 87-81

−9.5

CREI

W 85-58

+20.5

XAV

W 92-60

+15.5

SJU

L 72-81

−10.5

BTLR

W 80-70

−1.5

GTWN

W 79-75

−12.5

CREI

L 84-91

−22.5

VILL

W 73-63

+6.5

SJU

W 72-40

+26.5

HALL

W 71-67

−8.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−15.5

XAV

W 93-68

+7.5

GTWN

W 67-51

+1.5

covered 12didn’t cover 21avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−11.5

UML

W 110-47

+5.5

COLU

W 89-62

−4.5

BYU

W 86-84

+13.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−18.5

BRY

W 72-49

−26.5

ILL

W 74-61

−15.5

W 61-56

−24.5

ETAM

W 83-59

+0.5

FLA

W 77-73

+4.5

TEX

W 71-63

−11.5

BTLR

W 79-60

−5.5

DEP

W 72-54

−7.5

XAV

W 90-67

+12.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−14.5

PROV

W 103-98

+48.5

DEP

W 72-60

−5.5

HALL

W 69-64

+0.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−15.5

VILL

W 75-67

+4.5

PROV

W 87-81

+15.5

CREI

W 85-58

+0.5

XAV

W 92-60

+4.5

SJU

L 72-81

+9.5

BTLR

W 80-70

+6.5

GTWN

W 79-75

+15.5

CREI

L 84-91

+31.5

VILL

W 73-63

−5.5

SJU

W 72-40

−33.5

HALL

W 71-67

+7.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−13.5

XAV

W 93-68

+10.5

GTWN

W 67-51

−20.5

over 17under 16avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

St John's

33 games played

Straight up

27-6

82% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-682%

W L W W L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W W W L L W W W L W L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

O O U U O O U U U U U U O U U O O O U O O U O O U U U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUIN	W 108-74	-26.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 8	vsALA	L 96-103	-4.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 15	vsW&M	W 93-60	-28.5	W +4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 20	vsBUCK	W 97-49	-28.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsISU	L 82-83	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 165
Nov 25	vsBAY	W 96-81	-5.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsAUB	L 74-85	-4.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 6	vsMISS	W 63-58	-13.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsIONA	W 91-64	-28.5	L −1.5	159.5	U 155
Dec 16	vsDEP	W 79-66	-19.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsUK	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsHARV	W 85-59	-26.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 31	@GTWN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 3	vsPROV	L 71-77	-14.5	L −20.5	166.5	U 148
Jan 6	@BTLR	W 84-70	-4.5	W +9.5	162.5	U 154
Jan 10	@CREI	W 90-73	-2.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 163
Jan 13	vsMARQ	W 92-68	-15.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 17	@VILL	W 86-79	-2.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 20	vsHALL	W 65-60	-11.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 24	@XAV	W 88-83	-8.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	vsBTLR	W 92-70	-12.5	W +9.5	158.5	O 162
Feb 3	@DEP	W 68-56	-9.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 6	vsCONN	W 81-72	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 9	vsXAV	W 87-82	-16.5	L −11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	@PROV	W 79-69	-6.5	W +3.5	167.5	U 148
Feb 18	@MARQ	W 76-70	-8.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 21	vsCREI	W 81-52	-12.5	W +16.5	156.5	U 133
Feb 25	@CONN	L 40-72	+5.5	L −26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsVILL	W 89-57	-7.5	W +24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 3	vsGTWN	W 72-69	-15.5	L −12.5	148.5	U 141
Mar 6	@HALL	W 72-65	-5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsPROV	W 85-72	-11.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 157
Mar 13	vsHALL	W 78-68	-8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+7.5

ALA

L 96-103

−11.5

W&M

W 93-60

+4.5

BUCK

W 97-49

+19.5

ISU

L 82-83

+1.5

BAY

W 96-81

+9.5

AUB

L 74-85

−15.5

MISS

W 63-58

−8.5

IONA

W 91-64

−1.5

DEP

W 79-66

−6.5

L 66-78

−10.5

HARV

W 85-59

−0.5

GTWN

W 95-83

+3.5

PROV

L 71-77

−20.5

BTLR

W 84-70

+9.5

CREI

W 90-73

+14.5

MARQ

W 92-68

+8.5

VILL

W 86-79

+4.5

HALL

W 65-60

−6.5

XAV

W 88-83

−3.5

BTLR

W 92-70

+9.5

DEP

W 68-56

+2.5

CONN

W 81-72

+10.5

XAV

W 87-82

−11.5

PROV

W 79-69

+3.5

MARQ

W 76-70

−2.5

CREI

W 81-52

+16.5

CONN

L 40-72

−26.5

VILL

W 89-57

+24.5

GTWN

W 72-69

−12.5

HALL

W 72-65

+1.5

PROV

W 85-72

+1.5

HALL

W 78-68

+1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+25.5

ALA

L 96-103

+26.5

W&M

W 93-60

−26.5

BUCK

W 97-49

−12.5

ISU

L 82-83

+6.5

BAY

W 96-81

+17.5

AUB

L 74-85

−7.5

MISS

W 63-58

−30.5

IONA

W 91-64

−4.5

DEP

W 79-66

−2.5

L 66-78

−10.5

HARV

W 85-59

−1.5

GTWN

W 95-83

+25.5

PROV

L 71-77

−18.5

BTLR

W 84-70

−8.5

CREI

W 90-73

+10.5

MARQ

W 92-68

+4.5

VILL

W 86-79

+17.5

HALL

W 65-60

−20.5

XAV

W 88-83

+11.5

BTLR

W 92-70

+3.5

DEP

W 68-56

−21.5

CONN

W 81-72

+9.5

XAV

W 87-82

+9.5

PROV

W 79-69

−19.5

MARQ

W 76-70

−11.5

CREI

W 81-52

−23.5

CONN

L 40-72

−33.5

VILL

W 89-57

−1.5

GTWN

W 72-69

−7.5

HALL

W 72-65

−1.5

PROV

W 85-72

−1.5

HALL

W 78-68

+10.5

over 13under 20avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UConn Huskies at St. John's Red Storm

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UConn

St John's

UConn

St John's