United Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ISU -2.5✓ TENN covered by 16.5
ISU -2.5✓ TENN covered by 16.5Closing total139.5Under by 1.5
 TENN | This season | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| 24-11 | Record | 29-7 |
| 16-19 | ATS | 22-14 |
| 17-18 | O/U | 15-21 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 69–72 ISU · ✗ ISU (63%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 34 | 42 | 76 |
| ISU | 33 | 29 | 62 |
1st half: TENN 34, ISU 33 (TENN by 1). The model had ISU by 2.1 and a total of 66.0 (actual 67).
Team stats
| TENN | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-59 51% | Field goals | 21-54 39% |
| 7-22 32% | 3-pointers | 5-21 24% |
| 9-15 60% | Free throws | 15-25 60% |
| 43 16 off | Rebounds | 22 8 off |
| 22 | Assists | 16 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 7 | Blocks | 0 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 36 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 7-17 | 2-11 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 28 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Felix Okpara F | 28 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Nate Ament F | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 6-10 | 3-4 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 22 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Burg G | 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Amari Evans G | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amaree Abram, Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Grant Hurst, Troy Henderson, Cade Phillips
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamin Lipsey G | 36 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 6-13 | 1-4 |
| Nate Heise G | 34 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-6 |
| Killyan Toure G | 34 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-1 |
| Milan Momcilovic F | 33 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2-9 | 2-7 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 30 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Batemon G | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Eric Mulder, Cade Kelderman, Mason Williams, Xzavion Mitchell, Joshua Jefferson, Anthony Rise
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -2.5
ModelISU -3.8
Model edgeISU +1.3
L TENN covered
Total
Market139.5
Model140.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
L Under
Projected score
TENN 68.5 · ISU 72.4
TENN 76 · ISU 62
Win probability
ISU 63%
1st half
Spread
ISU -2.1
TENN -1.0
Total
66.0
67 points
Projected score
TENN 31.9 · ISU 34
TENN 34 · ISU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -4.5
2 → TENN
CloseISU -2.5
2 pts toward TENN
Total
Open137.5
▲ 2
Close139.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
TENN +136 · ISU -162
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -4.5 · closed ISU -2.5 · moved 2 toward TENNmodel ISU -4
model ISU -4
Opened 137.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 2 upmodel 141
model 141
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| ISU | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
35 games played
Straight up
24-11
69% wins
Against the spread
16-19
46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-18
49% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs UK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @ UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vs AUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | vs MISS | W 84-66 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @UK | L 71-74 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | @ MSST | W 73-64 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | vs LSU | W 73-63 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | vs OU | W 89-66 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 21 | @ VAN | W 69-65 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 24 | @ MIZ | L 69-73 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | vsALA | L 69-71 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 3 | @ SC | W 78-59 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 7 | vsVAN | L 82-86 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 12 | vsAUB | W 72-62 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 13 | vsVAN | L 68-75 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 20 | vs M-OH | W 78-56 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 22 | vs UVA | W 79-72 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+5.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−1.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
+0.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−4.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+11.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
+6.5
24
@MIZ
MIZL 69-73
−7.5
28
vsALA
ALAL 69-71
−7.5
3
@SC
SCW 78-59
+8.5
7
vsVAN
VANL 82-86
−6.5
12
vsAUB
AUBW 72-62
+4.5
13
vsVAN
VANL 68-75
−8.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHW 78-56
+9.5
22
vsUVA
UVAW 79-72
+5.5
covered 16didn’t cover 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+10.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−2.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
−10.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−7.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+5.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
−16.5
24
@MIZ
MIZL 69-73
−1.5
28
vsALA
ALAL 69-71
−22.5
3
@SC
SCW 78-59
−4.5
7
vsVAN
VANL 82-86
+21.5
12
vsAUB
AUBW 72-62
−10.5
13
vsVAN
VANL 68-75
−4.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHW 78-56
−14.5
22
vsUVA
UVAW 79-72
+13.5
over 17under 18avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa State
36 games played
Straight up
29-7
81% wins
Against the spread
22-14
61% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-21
42% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FDU | W 88-50 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 6 | vs GRAM | W 102-62 | -33.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 10 | vsMSST | W 96-80 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 17 | vs STO | W 96-57 | -40.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 24 | vs SJU | W 83-82 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs CREI | W 78-60 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 26 | vsSYR | W 95-64 | -10.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs ALCN | W 132-68 | -42.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | O 200 |
| Dec 6 | @ PUR | W 81-58 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 11 | vs IOWA | W 66-62 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs EIU | W 78-53 | -43.5 | L −18.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 21 | vs LBSU | W 91-60 | -37.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 29 | vs HCU | W 89-61 | -35.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 2 | vs WVU | W 80-59 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 7 | @ BAY | W 70-60 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs OKST | W 83-71 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 13 | @KU | L 63-84 | -3.5 | L −24.5 | 152.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | @ CIN | L 70-79 | -5.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 20 | vs UCF | W 87-57 | -14.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @OKST | W 84-71 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 162.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 29 | vs COLO | W 97-67 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 1 | @ KSU | W 95-61 | -12.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 7 | vsBAY | W 72-69 | -14.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | @ TCU | L 55-62 | -7.5 | L −14.5 | 147.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 14 | vsKU | W 74-56 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 16 | vsHOU | W 70-67 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | O 137 |
| Feb 21 | @ BYU | L 69-79 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 24 | @ UTAH | W 75-59 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 28 | vs TTU | L 73-82 | -10.5 | L −19.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 2 | @ ARIZ | L 57-73 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 7 | vs ASU | W 86-65 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 11 | vsASU | W 91-42 | -13.5 | W +35.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 12 | vsTTU | W 75-53 | -7.5 | W +14.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 13 | vsARIZ | L 80-82 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 20 | vsTNST | W 108-74 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 182 |
| Mar 22 | vsUK | W 82-63 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+10.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
−1.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
−1.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
+8.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+20.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+21.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
+27.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−7.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−18.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
−6.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
−7.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
+4.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
+6.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−7.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−24.5
17
@CIN
CINL 70-79
−14.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 87-57
+15.5
24
@OKST
OKSTW 84-71
+2.5
29
vsCOLO
COLOW 97-67
+12.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 95-61
+21.5
7
vsBAY
BAYW 72-69
−11.5
10
@TCU
TCUL 55-62
−14.5
14
vsKU
KUW 74-56
+10.5
16
vsHOU
HOUW 70-67
+0.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 69-79
−12.5
24
@UTAH
UTAHW 75-59
+1.5
28
vsTTU
TTUL 73-82
−19.5
2
@ARIZ
ARIZL 57-73
−8.5
7
vsASU
ASUW 86-65
+4.5
11
vsASU
ASUW 91-42
+35.5
12
vsTTU
TTUW 75-53
+14.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-82
+1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 108-74
+9.5
22
vsUK
UKW 82-63
+13.5
covered 22didn’t cover 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+25.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
+6.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
+6.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
−14.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+13.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+48.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
−15.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−13.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−13.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
+1.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
+4.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
−3.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
−25.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−11.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−5.5
17
@CIN
CINL 70-79
+7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFW 87-57
−12.5
24
@OKST
OKSTW 84-71
−7.5
29
vsCOLO
COLOW 97-67
+11.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 95-61
−0.5
7
vsBAY
BAYW 72-69
−10.5
10
@TCU
TCUL 55-62
−30.5
14
vsKU
KUW 74-56
−17.5
16
vsHOU
HOUW 70-67
+2.5
21
@BYU
BYUL 69-79
−6.5
24
@UTAH
UTAHW 75-59
−10.5
28
vsTTU
TTUL 73-82
+9.5
2
@ARIZ
ARIZL 57-73
−19.5
7
vsASU
ASUW 86-65
+2.5
11
vsASU
ASUW 91-42
−15.5
12
vsTTU
TTUW 75-53
−15.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 80-82
+17.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 108-74
+34.5
22
vsUK
UKW 82-63
−1.5
over 15under 21avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
24-11 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Virginia79–72
- Wvs Miami OH78–56
- Lvs Vanderbilt68–75
- Wvs Auburn72–62
- Lvs Vanderbilt82–86
5 days since their last game.
Iowa State
29-7 overall · 14-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Kentucky82–63
- Wvs Tennessee St108–74
- Lvs Arizona80–82
- Wvs Texas Tech75–53
- Wvs Arizona St91–42
5 days since their last game.