NCAAB

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Day in numbers2 finalFavorites 1-1 ATS1 upsetO/U 2-0Model Favorite 1-1Open
Games22 final · 0 to play
Lines moved21+ pt since the open · 2 with a line
Totals moved11+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS1-150% covered
Upsets1outright
Over / Under2-0100% over
Model Favorite1-150% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
TENN vs MICHMICH -7.5 → MICH -8.51 → MICH146.5 → 146.5no move
CONN vs DUKEDUKE -5.5 → DUKE -4.51 → CONN134.5 → 135.5▲ 1
Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
Tennessee
22-11 · #7 AP #6
62
Michigan
31-3 · #8 AP #1
95
Spread
MICH -8.5
✓ MICH W ATS
Total
146.5
▲ Over 157
Projected
72–79
✓ MICH won
Model: TENN by 1.4 ✗ Model: Over 3.8 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNeutral site · NCAA Tournament
UConn
29-5 · #6 AP #2
73
Duke
32-2 · #3 AP #1
72
Spread
DUKE -4.5
✓ CONN W ATS
Total
135.5 ▲1
▲ Over 145
Projected
67–72
✗ DUKE lost
Model: DUKE by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 2.9 ✓
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
Tennessee
22-11 · #7
62
Michigan
31-3 · #8
95
 MICH -8.5 146.5 MICH -7.1 TENN +1.4 150.3 Over 3.8 73% MICH L W ›
Final
UConn
29-5 · #6
73
Duke
32-2 · #3
72
 DUKE -4.5 135.5 DUKE -5.0 DUKE +0.5 138.4 Over 2.9 67% DUKE L W ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record