Capital One Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
DUKE -4.5✓ CONN covered by 5.5
DUKE -4.5✓ CONN covered by 5.5Closing total135.5Over by 9.5
 CONN | This season | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| 32-5 | Record | 35-2 |
| 14-23 | ATS | 21-16 |
| 18-19 | O/U | 13-24 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 67–72 DUKE · ✗ DUKE (67%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 29 | 44 | 73 |
| DUKE | 44 | 28 | 72 |
1st half: CONN 29, DUKE 44 (DUKE by 15). The model had DUKE by 2.8 and a total of 64.8 (actual 73).
Team stats
| CONN | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-64 44% | Field goals | 25-48 52% |
| 5-23 22% | 3-pointers | 6-15 40% |
| 12-17 71% | Free throws | 16-22 73% |
| 28 13 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 16 | Assists | 17 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 8 | Blocks | 6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 38 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2-10 | 1-6 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 32 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 10-16 | 0-0 |
| Solo Ball G | 30 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-11 | 0-5 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-5 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 23 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Malachi Smith G | 18 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Eric Reibe C | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma, Alec Millender, Jacob Furphy, Uros Paunovic, Rrezon Elezaj
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 39 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 10-21 | 1-4 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Dame Sarr F | 28 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 28 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Maliq Brown F | 17 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nik Khamenia F | 22 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 22 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Caleb Foster G | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Darren Harris G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Scott, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Sebastian Wilkins, Cameron Sheffield, Brock Davis
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -5.5
1 → CONN
CloseDUKE -4.5
1 pt toward CONN
Total
Open134.5
▲ 1
Close135.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
CONN +180 · DUKE -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -5.5 · closed DUKE -4.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel DUKE -5
model DUKE -5
Opened 134.5 · closed 135.5 · moved 1 upmodel 138.5
model 138.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 | DUKE -5.0 | DUKE +0.5 | L CONN covered |
| Total | 135.5 | 138.4 | Over 2.9 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | CONN 66.7 · DUKE 71.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DUKE -2.8 | DUKE -15.0 |
| 1H total | 64.8 | 73 |
| 1H projected score | CONN 31 · DUKE 33.8 | CONN 29 · DUKE 44 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| DUKE | 10-0 100% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
37 games played
Straight up
32-5
86% wins
Against the spread
14-23
38% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-19
49% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Against the spread
14-2338%
2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vs VILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 11 | @BTLR | W 80-70 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | vsGTWN | W 79-75 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vsCREI | L 84-91 | -15.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 21 | @VILL | W 73-63 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 25 | vsSJU | W 72-40 | -5.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 28 | vsHALL | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Mar 7 | @MARQ | L 62-68 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 12 | vsXAV | W 93-68 | -17.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Mar 13 | vsGTWN | W 67-51 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 118 |
| Mar 14 | @SJU | L 52-72 | -2.5 | L −22.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 20 | vs FUR | W 82-71 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 133.5 | O 153 |
| Mar 22 | vs UCLA | W 73-57 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 27 | vs MSU | W 67-63 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
−1.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
−12.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
−22.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
+6.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
+26.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
−8.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−15.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+7.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
+1.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−22.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
−9.5
22
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-57
+10.5
27
vsMSU
MSUW 67-63
+1.5
covered 14didn’t cover 23avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
+6.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
+15.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
+31.5
21
@VILL
VILLW 73-63
−5.5
25
vsSJU
SJUW 72-40
−33.5
28
vsHALL
HALLW 71-67
+7.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 62-68
−13.5
12
vsXAV
XAVW 93-68
+10.5
13
vsGTWN
GTWNW 67-51
−20.5
14
@SJU
SJUL 52-72
−15.5
20
vsFUR
FURW 82-71
+19.5
22
vsUCLA
UCLAW 73-57
−5.5
27
vsMSU
MSUW 67-63
−6.5
over 18under 19avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Duke
37 games played
Straight up
35-2
95% wins
Against the spread
21-16
57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-24
35% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vsTEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vsKU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vsFLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @ UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vs CLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vs SYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 21 | vs MICH | W 68-63 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | @ ND | W 100-56 | -16.5 | W +27.5 | 141.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vs UVA | W 77-51 | -9.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Mar 2 | @ NCSU | W 93-64 | -8.5 | W +20.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Mar 7 | vsUNC | W 76-61 | -18.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 12 | vsFSU | W 80-79 | -16.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 13 | vsCLEM | W 73-61 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 134.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 14 | vsUVA | W 74-70 | -6.5 | L −2.5 | 140.5 | O 144 |
| Mar 19 | vs SIE | W 71-65 | -28.5 | L −22.5 | 137.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 21 | vs TCU | W 81-58 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 140.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 27 | vsSJU | W 80-75 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
+8.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+27.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
+16.5
2
@NCSU
NCSUW 93-64
+20.5
7
vsUNC
UNCW 76-61
−3.5
12
vsFSU
FSUW 80-79
−15.5
13
vsCLEM
CLEMW 73-61
+1.5
14
vsUVA
UVAW 74-70
−2.5
19
vsSIE
SIEW 71-65
−22.5
21
vsTCU
TCUW 81-58
+10.5
27
vsSJU
SJUW 80-75
−1.5
covered 21didn’t cover 16avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
21
vsMICH
MICHW 68-63
−20.5
24
@ND
NDW 100-56
+14.5
28
vsUVA
UVAW 77-51
−15.5
2
@NCSU
NCSUW 93-64
+6.5
7
vsUNC
UNCW 76-61
−10.5
12
vsFSU
FSUW 80-79
+8.5
13
vsCLEM
CLEMW 73-61
−0.5
14
vsUVA
UVAW 74-70
+3.5
19
vsSIE
SIEW 71-65
−1.5
21
vsTCU
TCUW 81-58
−1.5
27
vsSJU
SJUW 80-75
+14.5
over 13under 24avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
32-5 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Michigan St67–63
- Wvs UCLA73–57
- Wvs Furman82–71
- L@ St John's52–72
- Wvs Georgetown67–51
2 days since their last game.
Duke
35-2 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs St John's80–75
- Wvs TCU81–58
- Wvs Siena71–65
- Wvs Virginia74–70
- Wvs Clemson73–61
2 days since their last game.