United Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
MICH -8.5✓ MICH covered by 24.5
MICH -8.5✓ MICH covered by 24.5Closing total146.5Over by 10.5
 TENN | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 25-11 | Record | 34-3 |
| 17-19 | ATS | 17-20 |
| 17-19 | O/U | 15-22 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 72–79 MICH · ✓ MICH (73%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 26 | 36 | 62 |
| MICH | 48 | 47 | 95 |
1st half: TENN 26, MICH 48 (MICH by 22). The model had MICH by 4.1 and a total of 70.3 (actual 74).
Team stats
| TENN | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-76 32% | Field goals | 29-56 52% |
| 5-26 19% | 3-pointers | 10-27 37% |
| 9-17 53% | Free throws | 27-37 73% |
| 42 19 off | Rebounds | 42 8 off |
| 12 | Assists | 19 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 8 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 24 | Fouls | 18 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 38 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 8-22 | 4-13 |
| Nate Ament F | 31 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2-12 | 0-3 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 25 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 25 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Felix Okpara F | 24 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Burg G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Clarence Massamba G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amaree Abram G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Troy Henderson G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cade Phillips, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Grant Hurst
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 35 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 10-19 | 3-9 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 34 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 26 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 23 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Aday Mara C | 18 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 22 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Trey McKenney G | 19 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Will Tschetter F | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Howard Eisley Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Charlie May G | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: L.J. Cason, Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMICH -8.5
ModelMICH -7.1
Model edgeTENN +1.4
L MICH covered
Total
Market146.5
Model150.3
Model edgeOver 3.8
W Over
Projected score
TENN 71.6 · MICH 78.7
TENN 62 · MICH 95
Win probability
MICH 73%
1st half
Spread
MICH -4.1
MICH -22.0
Total
70.3
74 points
Projected score
TENN 33.1 · MICH 37.2
TENN 26 · MICH 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -7.5
1 → MICH
CloseMICH -8.5
1 pt toward MICH
Total
Open146.5
no move
Close146.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TENN +330 · MICH -425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -7.5 · closed MICH -8.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -7
model MICH -7
Opened 146.5 · unchangedmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TENN 0–1 MICHMICH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TENN 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2021-22 | MICH 76 vs TENN 68 | TENN -7 | MICH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
36 games played
Straight up
25-11
69% wins
Against the spread
17-19
47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-19
47% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs UK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @ UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vs AUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | vs MISS | W 84-66 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @UK | L 71-74 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | @ MSST | W 73-64 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 14 | vs LSU | W 73-63 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 18 | vs OU | W 89-66 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 21 | @ VAN | W 69-65 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 24 | @ MIZ | L 69-73 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | vsALA | L 69-71 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 3 | @ SC | W 78-59 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 7 | vsVAN | L 82-86 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 12 | vsAUB | W 72-62 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 13 | vsVAN | L 68-75 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 20 | vs M-OH | W 78-56 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 22 | vs UVA | W 79-72 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Mar 27 | vs ISU | W 76-62 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 139.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+5.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−1.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
+0.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−4.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+11.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
+6.5
24
@MIZ
MIZL 69-73
−7.5
28
vsALA
ALAL 69-71
−7.5
3
@SC
SCW 78-59
+8.5
7
vsVAN
VANL 82-86
−6.5
12
vsAUB
AUBW 72-62
+4.5
13
vsVAN
VANL 68-75
−8.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHW 78-56
+9.5
22
vsUVA
UVAW 79-72
+5.5
27
vsISU
ISUW 76-62
+16.5
covered 17didn’t cover 19avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 84-66
+10.5
7
@UK
UKL 71-74
−2.5
11
@MSST
MSSTW 73-64
−10.5
14
vsLSU
LSUW 73-63
−7.5
18
vsOU
OUW 89-66
+5.5
21
@VAN
VANW 69-65
−16.5
24
@MIZ
MIZL 69-73
−1.5
28
vsALA
ALAL 69-71
−22.5
3
@SC
SCW 78-59
−4.5
7
vsVAN
VANL 82-86
+21.5
12
vsAUB
AUBW 72-62
−10.5
13
vsVAN
VANL 68-75
−4.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHW 78-56
−14.5
22
vsUVA
UVAW 79-72
+13.5
27
vsISU
ISUW 76-62
−1.5
over 17under 19avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
37 games played
Straight up
34-3
92% wins
Against the spread
17-20
46% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-22
41% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Against the spread
17-2046%
2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vsAUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vsRUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vs UCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @ PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 21 | vs DUKE | L 63-68 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 24 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -22.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | @ILL | W 84-70 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 5 | @ IOWA | W 71-68 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 8 | vsMSU | W 90-80 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsOSU | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Mar 14 | vsWIS | W 68-65 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Mar 15 | vsPUR | L 72-80 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Mar 19 | vs HOW | W 101-80 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 21 | vs SLU | W 95-72 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 167 |
| Mar 27 | vsALA | W 90-77 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−8.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−12.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
+12.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−6.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
−0.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−8.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−9.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
−12.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
−9.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+10.5
27
vsALA
ALAW 90-77
+3.5
covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
21
vsDUKE
DUKEL 63-68
−20.5
24
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−1.5
27
@ILL
ILLW 84-70
−5.5
5
@IOWA
IOWAW 71-68
−7.5
8
vsMSU
MSUW 90-80
+17.5
13
vsOSU
OSUW 71-67
−17.5
14
vsWIS
WISW 68-65
−28.5
15
vsPUR
PURL 72-80
+2.5
19
vsHOW
HOWW 101-80
+29.5
21
vsSLU
SLUW 95-72
+5.5
27
vsALA
ALAW 90-77
−5.5
over 15under 22avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
25-11 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Iowa State76–62
- Wvs Virginia79–72
- Wvs Miami OH78–56
- Lvs Vanderbilt68–75
- Wvs Auburn72–62
2 days since their last game.
Michigan
34-3 overall · 21-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Alabama90–77
- Wvs Saint Louis95–72
- Wvs Howard101–80
- Lvs Purdue72–80
- Wvs Wisconsin68–65
2 days since their last game.