1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 10
  3. LAM @ PORT
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 10

Lamar Cardinals at Portland Pilots

Chiles Center · at Portland
#293LAMLamar
@
#169PORTPortland
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LAMThis seasonPORT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PORT 77–67 · win probability PORT 79%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PORT has more of the edges

LAM 2, PORT 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LAM has played the 328th-hardest schedule, PORT the 124th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LAMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAM 35.7%, PORT 28.1%. Defensive: LAM 70.6%, PORT 67.5%
PORTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAM 27.9, PORT 34.4. Allowed: LAM 44.4, PORT 32.6
PORTBig
LAM offense vs PORT defense
Offense 334th of 366 against a defense 202nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LAM plays 66.1 a game (311th fastest), PORT 70.2 (106th). Faster games mean more points
PORTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAM 0%, PORT 41%. Transfers in: LAM 6, PORT 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
LAMSmall
Three-pointers
LAM hits 32.9% and allows 35.3%; PORT hits 29.9% and allows 36.1%. Threes are 33.9% and 35.4% of their shots
PORTSmall
PORT offense vs LAM defense
Offense 156th of 366 against a defense 213th, on the model’s ratings
PORTSmall
Home court
PORT at home. This season: PORT 0-0 at home, LAM 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAM 18.1%, PORT 19.6%. Forced: LAM 17.3%, PORT 17.0%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAM 47.8 and allows 50.9; PORT 51.2 and allows 52.7
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PORT -9.3—
Total—144.0—
Projected score—LAM 67.3 · PORT 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPORT -5.4—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreLAM 31 · PORT 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Portland has the better starters

Position by position: Lamar 1, Portland 2, even 2
LamarBetterPortland
G F. Radakovic TR9.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 38
Even
G J. Olvera TR13.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 51
G N. Moretti TR5.9 pts · 2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 24
Even
G K. Isaac TR5 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 10
G Q. Berry TR6.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 61
LAMBig
G D. Censori-Hercules3.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 22
G M. Collins TR1.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 12
PORTBig
F J. O'Donnell9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 60
F M. Ljubicic TR5.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 7
PORTBig
F T. George11.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 93
LamarBetterPortland
LAM offense334th of 366 · -10.9
PORTBig
PORT defense202nd of 366 · -5.0
LAM defense213th of 366 · -5.4
PORTSmall
PORT offense156th of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.4 · 1 player
PORTBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.8 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestLAM betterPORT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lamar
Guards
F. Radakovic27 min · TRN. Moretti27 min · TRQ. Berry18 min · TRM. Collins9 min · TRJ. JonesNewS. LynchNew
Forwards
M. Ljubicic20 min · TRM. Reed7 min · TRC. HinkerNewA. AgotNewD. EasonNew
Portland
Guards
J. Olvera29 min · TRK. Isaac24 min · TRD. Censori-Hercules21 minR. Parker19 minH. Adam15 min · TRR. NanceNew
Forwards
J. O'Donnell23 minT. George20 minV. Perkovic7 min · TRO. SukurNewH. SewellNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LAMPORT
Scoring
68.4 #308Points per game72.1 #238
1.04 #279Points per possession1.02 #299
66.1 #311Pace (possessions)70.2 #106
Shooting
47.8 #318Effective FG%51.2 #188
32.9 #2383-point %29.9 #344
33.9 #2973-point attempt rate35.4 #263
27.9 #344Free throw rate34.4 #197
Possessions
18.1 #273Turnover rate19.6 #342
35.7 #31Offensive rebound rate28.1 #266
13.9 #157Assists per game15.9 #51
Defense
70.5 #64Points allowed78.1 #271
1.07 #122Points allowed per possession1.11 #258
50.9 #153Opponent effective FG%52.7 #255
35.3 #266Opponent 3-point %36.1 #308
17.3 #130Turnovers forced17.0 #148
70.6 #130Defensive rebound rate67.5 #281
6.1 #227Steals per game5.8 #251
4.2 #54Blocks per game2.9 #246
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lamar

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Hou Christian53–75
  • L@ Incarnate Word60–72
  • Lvs Nicholls52–53
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans71–77
  • L@ UT Rio Grande65–70

A week or more of rest.

Portland

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San Francisco65–82
  • Wvs Washington St74–68
  • Wvs Pepperdine77–68
  • Wvs San Diego87–74
  • L@ Gonzaga48–89

A week or more of rest.