Pacific Tigers at Portland Pilots: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 10:00 PM ETChiles Center · at Portland · Conference game

#163PACPacific89final

Final

#169PORTPortland90▲ winner

Closing linePAC -3.5✓ PORT covered by 4.5

Closing total144.5Over by 34.5

Season records: Pacific and Portland
PAC	This season	PORT
9-6	Record	5-10
9-6	ATS	6-9
6-9	O/U	7-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PAC 75–72 PORT · ✗ PAC (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
PAC	34	38	17	89
PORT	45	27	18	90

1st half: PAC 34, PORT 45 (PORT by 11). The model had PAC by 1.7 and a total of 69.0 (actual 79).

Team stats

PAC		PORT
29-66 44%	Field goals	31-66 47%
9-22 41%	3-pointers	13-23 57%
22-26 85%	Free throws	15-18 83%
39 17 off	Rebounds	34 13 off
17	Assists	15
5	Steals	1
2	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	14
17	Fouls	21
36	Points in paint	30
5	Fast-break points	6

Players

PAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Rochelin G	42	20	8	0	6-12	3-5
Elias Ralph F	42	16	7	3	5-10	1-4
Jaden Clayton G	36	9	2	12	2-8	1-4
TJ Wainwright G	35	11	0	0	2-9	2-4
Isaac Jack F	21	18	6	1	8-12	0-0
Bench
Jaion Pitt F	23	4	5	0	2-3	0-0
Kajus Kublickas G	14	6	2	1	2-5	1-3
Alexis Marmolejos G	6	3	0	0	1-3	1-2
KC Ibekwe C	6	2	2	0	1-4	0-0

Did not play: Noah Budu, Kris Keinys, Kellen Hampton, Dominic Capriotti, Carlsheon Young, Augustas Brazdeikis, Emmanuel Manyuon, Eyal Harel, Clayton Mpiana

PORT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joel Foxwell G	43	27	1	7	9-20	5-6
Matus Hronsky F	39	27	5	0	9-16	6-9
Cameron Williams F	31	9	10	1	2-9	0-0
Mikah Ballew G	22	3	0	2	1-4	1-4
Jermaine Ballisager Webb C	20	7	3	2	3-5	1-3
Bench
Garrett Nuckolls G	34	4	6	1	2-6	0-1
James O'Donnell F	24	13	5	1	5-6	0-0
Dante Censori-Hercules G	12	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Preston Lee, NaVaughn Long, Carlin Briggs, Riley Parker, Kelson Gebbers, Timo George, Marchelo Moreira

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PAC -3.5	PAC -2.7	PORT +0.8	W PORT covered
Total	144.5	147.3	Over 2.8	W Over
Projected score	—	PAC 75 · PORT 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PAC -1.7	PORT -11.0
1H total	69.0	79
1H projected score	PAC 35.4 · PORT 33.6	PAC 34 · PORT 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PAC WLLWL	9-6	60%	4-4	7-3
PORT LLWLW	6-9	40%	5-4	3-8

Venue/role: PAC away, as favorite; PORT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PAC OUOUO	6-9	40%	9-6
PORT UUOUU	7-8	47%	5-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PAC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
PORT	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

PAC 1–7 PORTPORT leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · PORT has won the last 4 meetings · PAC 2-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	PORT 81 @ PAC 73	PAC -2.5	PORT W
Jan 16, 2024-25	PAC 81 @ PORT 84	PORT -3.5	PAC W
Feb 1, 2023-24	PORT 65 @ PAC 60	PAC +2.5	PORT W
Jan 6, 2023-24	PAC 64 @ PORT 78	PORT -10.5	PORT W
Feb 25, 2022-23	PORT 77 @ PAC 81	PAC +2.5	PAC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacific

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-9

40% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

L W W L W W W W L L W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-660%

W L W L W W W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-940%

O U U U U U U O U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEV	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsLBSU	W 69-66	-12.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 15	@CSUF	W 85-73	-6.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 20	@FAU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsSTBK	W 86-58	-4.5	W +23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsJAX	W 68-53	-2.5	W +12.5	135.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsSAC	W 68-54	-10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 122
Dec 3	@AF	W 80-65	-5.5	W +9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 6	@CAL	L 61-67	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 16	@BYU	L 57-93	+23.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 21	vsNICH	W 95-82	-8.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 28	@USD	L 54-66	-2.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 30	@LMU	L 71-80	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	vsORST	W 84-53	-4.5	W +26.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 4	vsPEPP	W 74-69	-11.5	L −6.5	138.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+12.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−9.5

CSUF

W 85-73

+5.5

FAU

L 59-82

−15.5

STBK

W 86-58

+23.5

JAX

W 68-53

+12.5

SAC

W 68-54

+3.5

W 80-65

+9.5

CAL

L 61-67

+1.5

BYU

L 57-93

−12.5

NICH

W 95-82

+4.5

USD

L 54-66

−14.5

LMU

L 71-80

−5.5

ORST

W 84-53

+26.5

PEPP

W 74-69

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+15.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−6.5

CSUF

W 85-73

−1.5

FAU

L 59-82

−13.5

STBK

W 86-58

−1.5

JAX

W 68-53

−14.5

SAC

W 68-54

−24.5

W 80-65

+10.5

CAL

L 61-67

−16.5

BYU

L 57-93

+0.5

NICH

W 95-82

+37.5

USD

L 54-66

−30.5

LMU

L 71-80

+11.5

ORST

W 84-53

−0.5

PEPP

W 74-69

+4.5

over 6under 9avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Portland

15 games played

Straight up

5-10

33% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1033%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L W L W L L W L W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

U U U O O U O O O O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsUAPB	W 83-74	-12.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 9	vsUCD	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 15	@WYO	L 56-93	+11.5	L −25.5	160.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsCSUF	W 103-85	-6.5	W +11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsUNCO	L 80-86	+3.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 23	vsSTMN	L 66-76	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsLBSU	W 93-73	-5.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 166
Dec 1	@STAN	L 72-94	+19.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 14	vsKENT	W 88-78	+7.5	W +17.5	160.5	O 166
Dec 17	@ORE	L 69-94	+19.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 22	@UCSB	L 61-79	+9.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 28	vsWSU	L 62-67	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 129
Dec 30	vsSCU	L 85-92	+13.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 177
Jan 2	@SMC	L 57-78	+18.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	@SF	L 68-73	+11.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−3.5

UCD

W 67-63

+2.5

WYO

L 56-93

−25.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+11.5

UNCO

L 80-86

−2.5

STMN

L 66-76

−4.5

LBSU

W 93-73

+14.5

STAN

L 72-94

−2.5

KENT

W 88-78

+17.5

ORE

L 69-94

−5.5

UCSB

L 61-79

−8.5

WSU

L 62-67

−1.5

SCU

L 85-92

+6.5

SMC

L 57-78

−2.5

L 68-73

+6.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−7.5

UCD

W 67-63

−21.5

WYO

L 56-93

−11.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+23.5

UNCO

L 80-86

+8.5

STMN

L 66-76

−13.5

LBSU

W 93-73

+17.5

STAN

L 72-94

+9.5

KENT

W 88-78

+5.5

ORE

L 69-94

+8.5

UCSB

L 61-79

−7.5

WSU

L 62-67

−23.5

SCU

L 85-92

+19.5

SMC

L 57-78

−11.5

L 68-73

−6.5

over 7under 8avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacific Tigers at Portland Pilots

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pacific

Portland

Pacific

Portland