Pepperdine Waves at Pacific Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 4, 7:00 PM ETAlex G. Spanos Center · at Pacific · Conference game

#172PEPPPepperdine69final

Final

#163PACPacific74▲ winner

Closing linePAC -11.5✓ PEPP covered by 6.5

Closing total138.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Pepperdine and Pacific
PEPP	This season	PAC
3-11	Record	8-6
6-8	ATS	9-5
4-10	O/U	5-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PEPP 64–75 PAC · ✓ PAC (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PEPP	36	33	69
PAC	40	34	74

1st half: PEPP 36, PAC 40 (PAC by 4). The model had PAC by 6.6 and a total of 65.4 (actual 76).

Team stats

PEPP		PAC
24-57 42%	Field goals	27-51 53%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	9-20 45%
14-15 93%	Free throws	11-13 85%
24 8 off	Rebounds	35 9 off
12	Assists	14
8	Steals	9
0	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	18
12	Fouls	18
22	Points in paint	34
9	Fast-break points	9

Players

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Styles Phipps G	39	14	6	4	5-13	0-3
Javon Cooley G	33	18	7	1	6-14	1-5
Danilo Dozic C	32	12	3	2	4-8	3-5
Yonatan Levy F	26	3	0	1	1-6	0-3
Pavle Stosic F	22	1	1	2	0-2	0-1
Bench
Aaron Clark G	28	12	3	2	5-8	2-3
Nikola Radovanovic F	8	2	2	0	0-0	0-0
Luka Vudragovic G	4	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Stefan Cicic C	4	3	0	0	1-2	1-1
David Mager G	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Vladimir Sudar, Preston Phillips, Yassine Gharram, Anto Balian, Ty Virgil, Pasha Shemirani

PAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elias Ralph F	38	22	10	2	7-13	3-5
Justin Rochelin G	35	14	8	1	5-7	0-1
Jaden Clayton G	34	11	1	1	5-10	1-4
TJ Wainwright G	32	6	2	2	2-12	2-7
Isaac Jack F	22	4	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Jaion Pitt F	17	5	9	2	2-2	1-1
Kajus Kublickas G	14	10	1	5	4-4	2-2
KC Ibekwe C	8	2	0	1	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Alexis Marmolejos, Clayton Mpiana, Eyal Harel, Emmanuel Manyuon, Augustas Brazdeikis, Kris Keinys, Carlsheon Young, Dominic Capriotti, Noah Budu, Kellen Hampton

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PAC -11.5	PAC -11.2	PEPP +0.3	W PEPP covered
Total	138.5	139.5	Over 1.0	W Over
Projected score	—	PEPP 64.1 · PAC 75.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PAC -6.6	PAC -4.0
1H total	65.4	76
1H projected score	PEPP 29.4 · PAC 36	PEPP 36 · PAC 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PEPP WWLLW	6-8	43%	4-1	5-8
PAC LWLLW	9-5	64%	3-1	7-2

Venue/role: PEPP away, as underdog; PAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PEPP OOUUU	4-10	29%	3-11
PAC OOUOU	5-9	36%	8-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PEPP	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
PAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PEPP 6–4 PACPEPP leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PEPP has won the last 5 meetings · PEPP 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2024-25	PAC 44 @ PEPP 60	PEPP -7.5	PEPP W
Jan 4, 2024-25	PEPP 87 @ PAC 70	PAC -0.5	PEPP W
Mar 7, 2023-24	PAC 43 vs PEPP 102	PEPP -9.5	PEPP W
Feb 21, 2023-24	PEPP 89 @ PAC 70	PAC +7.5	PEPP W
Jan 11, 2023-24	PAC 78 @ PEPP 93	PEPP -12.5	PEPP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pepperdine

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

L L W L L L L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

W L W L L L L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-1029%

U O O U U U U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 2	vsACU	L 63-71	+1.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsUVM	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 13	@CSUB	W 70-62	+1.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 18	@LBSU	L 78-81	+4.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsRICE	W 84-62	+1.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 146
Dec 28	vsGONZ	L 56-96	+29.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	vsSMC	L 45-72	+19.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	@SCU	L 63-82	+20.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

ACU

L 63-71

−6.5

UVM

L 56-65

−7.5

CSUB

W 70-62

+9.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+1.5

RICE

W 84-62

+23.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−10.5

SMC

L 45-72

−7.5

SCU

L 63-82

+1.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

ACU

L 63-71

−3.5

UVM

L 56-65

−21.5

CSUB

W 70-62

−15.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+17.5

RICE

W 84-62

+5.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−0.5

SMC

L 45-72

−24.5

SCU

L 63-82

−5.5

over 4under 10avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacific

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

9-5

64% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-9

36% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

L W W L W W W W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-564%

W L W L W W W W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-936%

O U U U U U U O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEV	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsLBSU	W 69-66	-12.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 15	@CSUF	W 85-73	-6.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 20	@FAU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsSTBK	W 86-58	-4.5	W +23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsJAX	W 68-53	-2.5	W +12.5	135.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsSAC	W 68-54	-10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 122
Dec 3	@AF	W 80-65	-5.5	W +9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 6	@CAL	L 61-67	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 16	@BYU	L 57-93	+23.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 21	vsNICH	W 95-82	-8.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 28	@USD	L 54-66	-2.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 30	@LMU	L 71-80	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	vsORST	W 84-53	-4.5	W +26.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+12.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−9.5

CSUF

W 85-73

+5.5

FAU

L 59-82

−15.5

STBK

W 86-58

+23.5

JAX

W 68-53

+12.5

SAC

W 68-54

+3.5

W 80-65

+9.5

CAL

L 61-67

+1.5

BYU

L 57-93

−12.5

NICH

W 95-82

+4.5

USD

L 54-66

−14.5

LMU

L 71-80

−5.5

ORST

W 84-53

+26.5

covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+15.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−6.5

CSUF

W 85-73

−1.5

FAU

L 59-82

−13.5

STBK

W 86-58

−1.5

JAX

W 68-53

−14.5

SAC

W 68-54

−24.5

W 80-65

+10.5

CAL

L 61-67

−16.5

BYU

L 57-93

+0.5

NICH

W 95-82

+37.5

USD

L 54-66

−30.5

LMU

L 71-80

+11.5

ORST

W 84-53

−0.5

over 5under 9avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pepperdine Waves at Pacific Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pepperdine

Pacific

Pepperdine

Pacific