Oregon State Beavers at Pacific Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 2, 10:00 PM ETAlex G. Spanos Center · at Pacific · Conference game

#99ORSTOregon St53final

Final

#163PACPacific84▲ winner

Closing linePAC -4.5✓ PAC covered by 26.5

Closing total137.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Oregon St and Pacific
ORST	This season	PAC
8-7	Record	7-6
6-9	ATS	8-5
9-6	O/U	5-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ORST 69–73 PAC · ✓ PAC (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ORST	34	19	53
PAC	49	35	84

1st half: ORST 34, PAC 49 (PAC by 15). The model had PAC by 2.2 and a total of 66.8 (actual 83).

Team stats

ORST		PAC
19-53 36%	Field goals	27-50 54%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	12-23 52%
7-11 64%	Free throws	18-24 75%
25 7 off	Rebounds	38 10 off
10	Assists	20
5	Steals	7
2	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	10
16	Fouls	15
20	Points in paint	24
3	Fast-break points	4

Players

ORST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dez White G	31	8	3	3	3-11	2-6
Johan Munch F	28	12	5	0	5-10	0-1
Isaiah Sy G	26	8	6	1	3-7	2-4
Jorge Diaz-Graham F	18	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Josiah Lake II G	18	9	1	1	3-5	3-4
Bench
Keziah Ekissi G	22	12	2	2	4-7	1-2
Matija Samar G	18	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Olavi Suutela F	14	0	1	1	0-2	0-0
Noah Amenhauser C	13	4	2	0	1-3	0-0
Yaak Yaak C	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Daisean Williford F	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Malcolm Christie, Kaan Yarkut, Stephen Olowoniyi, Gavin Marrs

PAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Clayton G	27	15	2	7	5-6	3-3
Justin Rochelin G	26	8	8	1	3-6	1-2
TJ Wainwright G	24	17	2	2	5-8	5-6
Elias Ralph F	23	24	4	2	6-11	2-5
Isaac Jack F	23	4	7	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Kajus Kublickas G	22	4	3	2	1-5	0-2
Jaion Pitt F	18	1	2	0	0-0	0-0
Alexis Marmolejos G	17	3	2	3	1-6	1-5
KC Ibekwe C	17	8	6	2	4-5	0-0
Emmanuel Manyuon G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Augustas Brazdeikis, Eyal Harel, Clayton Mpiana, Noah Budu, Kris Keinys, Kellen Hampton, Dominic Capriotti, Carlsheon Young

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PAC -4.5	PAC -3.9	ORST +0.6	L PAC covered
Total	137.5	142.5	Over 5.0	L Under
Projected score	—	ORST 69.3 · PAC 73.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PAC -2.2	PAC -15.0
1H total	66.8	83
1H projected score	ORST 32.3 · PAC 34.5	ORST 34 · PAC 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST WLWLW	6-9	40%	2-0	3-1
PAC WLWLL	8-5	62%	2-1	6-2

Venue/role: ORST away, as underdog; PAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST UOOOU	9-6	60%	8-7
PAC UOOUO	5-8	38%	7-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PAC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ORST 2–0 PACORST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ORST has won the last 2 meetings · ORST 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	PAC 65 @ ORST 79	ORST -13.5	ORST W
Jan 11, 2024-25	ORST 91 @ PAC 55	PAC +9.5	ORST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oregon St

15 games played

Straight up

8-7

53% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-753%

W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-940%

L L L W L L L L W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-660%

U O U O O O U O U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsMASS	L 65-73	-3.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 138
Nov 29	vsCBU	L 69-75	-1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 3	vsUVM	W 80-58	-3.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsSUU	W 81-70	-10.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	vsMTST	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	140.5	U 124
Dec 17	vsSHSU	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 21	@ASU	W 78-75	+12.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 28	vsSCU	L 64-102	+7.5	L −30.5	150.5	O 166
Dec 30	vsSF	W 70-62	+4.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

−7.5

UVM

W 80-58

+18.5

SUU

W 81-70

+0.5

MTST

W 67-57

+8.5

SHSU

L 75-85

−13.5

ASU

W 78-75

+15.5

SCU

L 64-102

−30.5

W 70-62

+12.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

MASS

L 65-73

−11.5

CBU

L 69-75

+6.5

UVM

W 80-58

−5.5

SUU

W 81-70

+4.5

MTST

W 67-57

−16.5

SHSU

L 75-85

+6.5

ASU

W 78-75

+5.5

SCU

L 64-102

+15.5

W 70-62

−12.5

over 9under 6avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacific

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

L W W L W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-562%

W L W L W W W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-838%

O U U U U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEV	L 77-78	+13.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 155
Nov 12	vsLBSU	W 69-66	-12.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 15	@CSUF	W 85-73	-6.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 20	@FAU	L 59-82	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsSTBK	W 86-58	-4.5	W +23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsJAX	W 68-53	-2.5	W +12.5	135.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsSAC	W 68-54	-10.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 122
Dec 3	@AF	W 80-65	-5.5	W +9.5	134.5	O 145
Dec 6	@CAL	L 61-67	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 16	@BYU	L 57-93	+23.5	L −12.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 21	vsNICH	W 95-82	-8.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 28	@USD	L 54-66	-2.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 30	@LMU	L 71-80	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+12.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−9.5

CSUF

W 85-73

+5.5

FAU

L 59-82

−15.5

STBK

W 86-58

+23.5

JAX

W 68-53

+12.5

SAC

W 68-54

+3.5

W 80-65

+9.5

CAL

L 61-67

+1.5

BYU

L 57-93

−12.5

NICH

W 95-82

+4.5

USD

L 54-66

−14.5

LMU

L 71-80

−5.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 77-78

+15.5

LBSU

W 69-66

−6.5

CSUF

W 85-73

−1.5

FAU

L 59-82

−13.5

STBK

W 86-58

−1.5

JAX

W 68-53

−14.5

SAC

W 68-54

−24.5

W 80-65

+10.5

CAL

L 61-67

−16.5

BYU

L 57-93

+0.5

NICH

W 95-82

+37.5

USD

L 54-66

−30.5

LMU

L 71-80

+11.5

over 5under 8avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oregon State Beavers at Pacific Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oregon St

Pacific

Oregon St

Pacific