Massachusetts Minutemen vs Oregon State Beavers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 12:30 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#209MASSUMass73▲ winner

Final

#99ORSTOregon St65final

Closing lineORST -3.5✓ MASS covered by 11.5

Closing total149.5Under by 11.5

Season records: UMass and Oregon St
MASS	This season	ORST
3-3	Record	3-3
1-5	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MASS 76–80 ORST · ✗ ORST (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MASS	34	39	73
ORST	31	34	65

1st half: MASS 34, ORST 31 (MASS by 3). The model had ORST by 2.3 and a total of 72.8 (actual 65).

Team stats

MASS		ORST
29-65 45%	Field goals	22-49 45%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	9-28 32%
10-17 59%	Free throws	12-17 71%
39 17 off	Rebounds	31 7 off
13	Assists	11
9	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	16
16	Fouls	21
42	Points in paint	22
8	Fast-break points	4

Players

MASS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Danny Carbuccia G	36	8	1	5	4-7	0-2
Marcus Banks Jr. G	35	14	0	0	5-13	4-10
Leonardo Bettiol F	33	8	9	6	4-11	0-0
Daniel Hankins-Sanford F	31	24	11	0	9-17	0-1
Jayden Ndjigue G	24	2	9	2	1-2	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Placide G	15	8	1	0	3-6	1-3
Dimitri Clerc F	9	9	5	0	3-4	0-0
Luka Damjanac F	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Rollie Castineyra G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
K'Jei Parker G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Dwayne Wimbley Jr. F	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Josh Engel, Donovan Brown, Bilal Osman, CJ Outlaw

ORST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josiah Lake II G	37	11	6	2	5-9	0-3
Dez White G	35	12	2	2	4-12	3-8
Noah Amenhauser C	20	8	3	0	3-4	0-0
Johan Munch F	16	0	5	1	0-1	0-0
Isaiah Sy G	15	2	1	3	1-5	0-3
Bench
Olavi Suutela F	31	12	7	0	4-5	1-2
Malcolm Christie G	29	17	3	0	4-9	4-9
Jorge Diaz-Graham F	9	0	0	2	0-2	0-2
Matija Samar G	8	3	1	1	1-2	1-1

Did not play: Daisean Williford, Kaan Yarkut, Yaak Yaak, Stephen Olowoniyi, Gavin Marrs, Keziah Ekissi

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORST -3.5	ORST -4.0	ORST +0.5	L MASS covered
Total	149.5	155.5	Over 6.0	L Under
Projected score	—	MASS 75.8 · ORST 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -2.3	MASS -3.0
1H total	72.8	65
1H projected score	MASS 35.3 · ORST 37.5	MASS 34 · ORST 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MASS WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	0-1
ORST LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-2	0-5

Venue/role: MASS neutral site, as underdog; ORST neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UOOUO	3-3	50%	3-3
ORST OUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASSlast 6	3-3 50%	1-5 17%	3-3 50%
ORSTlast 6	3-3 50%	1-5 17%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRSH	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsUALB	W 83-62	-9.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 13	vsLEM	W 94-80	-16.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 16	vsCCSU	W 84-77	-12.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 161
Nov 21	vsCOFC	L 65-69	+3.5	L −0.5	161.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsGB	L 75-79	-5.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRSH

L 72-78

−10.5

UALB

W 83-62

+11.5

LEM

W 94-80

−2.5

CCSU

W 84-77

−5.5

COFC

L 65-69

−0.5

L 75-79

−9.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRSH

L 72-78

−2.5

UALB

W 83-62

−10.5

LEM

W 94-80

+20.5

CCSU

W 84-77

+16.5

COFC

L 65-69

−27.5

L 75-79

+7.5

over 3under 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon St

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsIONA	L 84-91	-3.5	L −10.5	157.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

IONA

L 84-91

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

IONA

L 84-91

+17.5

over 4under 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMass vs Oregon St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass

Oregon St

UMass

Oregon St