1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 11
  3. LAM @ ORST
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 11

Lamar Cardinals at Oregon State Beavers

Gill Coliseum · at Oregon St
#293LAMLamar
@
#99ORSTOregon St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LAMThis seasonORST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORST 80–64 · win probability ORST 93%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

LAM 2, ORST 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ORSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAM 27.9, ORST 43.1. Allowed: LAM 44.4, ORST 35.1
ORSTBig
LAM offense vs ORST defense
Offense 334th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
LAM has played the 328th-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LAMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAM 35.7%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: LAM 70.6%, ORST 67.9%
ORSTBig
Three-pointers
LAM hits 32.9% and allows 35.3%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 33.9% and 44.3% of their shots
ORSTBig
ORST offense vs LAM defense
Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 213th, on the model’s ratings
ORSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: LAM 47.8 and allows 50.9; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3
LAMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LAM 18.1%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: LAM 17.3%, ORST 15.3%
ORSTSmall
Home court
ORST at home. This season: ORST 0-0 at home, LAM 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAM 0%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: LAM 6, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: LAM plays 66.1 a game (311th fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ORST -16.6—
Total—144.1—
Projected score—LAM 63.8 · ORST 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadORST -9.7—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreLAM 28.8 · ORST 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Oregon St has the better starters

Position by position: Lamar 0, Oregon St 4, even 1
LamarBetterOregon St
G F. Radakovic TR9.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 38
ORSTBig
G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87
G N. Moretti TR5.9 pts · 2 reb · 3.2 ast Score 24
ORSTBig
G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93
G Q. Berry TR6.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 61
Even
G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52
G M. Collins TR1.4 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 12
ORSTSmall
F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43
F M. Ljubicic TR5.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 7
ORSTBig
F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80
LamarBetterOregon St
LAM offense334th of 366 · -10.9
ORSTBig
ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1
LAM defense213th of 366 · -5.4
ORSTSmall
ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
ORSTBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.4 · 1 player
ORSTBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.8 · 1 player
ORSTSmall
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAM betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Lamar
Guards
F. Radakovic27 min · TRN. Moretti27 min · TRQ. Berry18 min · TRM. Collins9 min · TRJ. JonesNewS. LynchNew
Forwards
M. Ljubicic20 min · TRM. Reed7 min · TRC. HinkerNewA. AgotNewD. EasonNew
Oregon St
Guards
J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew
Forwards
J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew
Centers
D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LAMORST
Scoring
68.4 #308Points per game71.1 #264
1.04 #279Points per possession1.06 #232
66.1 #311Pace (possessions)67.2 #272
Shooting
47.8 #318Effective FG%50.5 #216
32.9 #2383-point %35.0 #115
33.9 #2973-point attempt rate44.3 #84
27.9 #344Free throw rate43.1 #20
Possessions
18.1 #273Turnover rate17.7 #254
35.7 #31Offensive rebound rate26.8 #303
13.9 #157Assists per game13.8 #159
Defense
70.5 #64Points allowed74.2 #159
1.07 #122Points allowed per possession1.10 #223
50.9 #153Opponent effective FG%50.3 #119
35.3 #266Opponent 3-point %32.9 #116
17.3 #130Turnovers forced15.3 #264
70.6 #130Defensive rebound rate67.9 #265
6.1 #227Steals per game5.5 #293
4.2 #54Blocks per game3.7 #115
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lamar

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Hou Christian53–75
  • L@ Incarnate Word60–72
  • Lvs Nicholls52–53
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans71–77
  • L@ UT Rio Grande65–70

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Gonzaga56–65
  • Wvs San Francisco78–77
  • L@ Santa Clara72–93
  • Wvs San Diego92–82
  • Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.