1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. ASU @ ORST
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers

Gill Coliseum · at Oregon St
#60ASUArizona St
@
#99ORSTOregon St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ASUThis seasonORST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 78–74 · win probability ASU 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORST has more of the edges

ASU 2, ORST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ASUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ASU 17.1%, ORST 17.7%. Forced: ASU 18.4%, ORST 15.3%
ORSTBig
Three-pointers
ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%; ORST hits 35.0% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 38.4% and 44.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
ASU has played the 13th-hardest schedule, ORST the 120th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ASU plays 70.6 a game (93rd fastest), ORST 67.2 (272nd). Faster games mean more points
ASUSmall
ASU offense vs ORST defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 109th, on the model’s ratings
ORSTSmall
Home court
ORST at home. This season: ORST 0-0 at home, ASU 0-0 away
ORSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4; ORST 50.5 and allows 50.3
Even
ORST offense vs ASU defense
Offense 95th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ASU 39.5, ORST 43.1. Allowed: ASU 34.3, ORST 35.1
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ASU 29.9%, ORST 26.8%. Defensive: ASU 65.1%, ORST 67.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ASU 11%, ORST 17%. Transfers in: ASU 6, ORST 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ASU -3.4—
Total—152.0—
Projected score—ASU 77.7 · ORST 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -2.2—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreASU 36.6 · ORST 34.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Arizona St 1, Oregon St 1, even 3
Arizona StBetterOregon St
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
Even
G J. Lake13.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.2 ast Score 87
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
ORSTBig
G D. Freitag TR20 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 93
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
Even
G L. Smiley TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 52
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
ASUBig
F J. Rasmussen TR13 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 43
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
Even
F D. Gory TR13.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2 ast Score 80
Arizona StBetterOregon St
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
ASUSmall
ORST defense109th of 366 · -1.1
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
Even
ORST offense95th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
ORSTBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
ASUBig
Frontcourt+1.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
ORSTSmall
Bench+1.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestASU betterORST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
Oregon St
Guards
J. Lake34 minD. Freitag34 min · TRL. Smiley21 min · TRC. Johnson16 min · TRS. Blakely Drummond1 min · TRJ. LakeNew
Forwards
J. Rasmussen32 min · TRD. Gory30 min · TRP. Pinnis4 min · TRK. TreacherNew
Centers
D. Evans9 min · TRX. Staton5 min · TRY. AklogNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ASUORST
Scoring
76.3 #133Points per game71.1 #264
1.08 #178Points per possession1.06 #232
70.6 #93Pace (possessions)67.2 #272
Shooting
51.1 #190Effective FG%50.5 #216
33.4 #2023-point %35.0 #115
38.4 #2013-point attempt rate44.3 #84
39.5 #66Free throw rate43.1 #20
Possessions
17.1 #211Turnover rate17.7 #254
29.9 #206Offensive rebound rate26.8 #303
13.7 #166Assists per game13.8 #159
Defense
78.3 #273Points allowed74.2 #159
1.11 #239Points allowed per possession1.10 #223
52.4 #235Opponent effective FG%50.3 #119
35.0 #249Opponent 3-point %32.9 #116
18.4 #77Turnovers forced15.3 #264
65.1 #337Defensive rebound rate67.9 #265
7.0 #122Steals per game5.5 #293
4.6 #32Blocks per game3.7 #115
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.

Oregon St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Gonzaga56–65
  • Wvs San Francisco78–77
  • L@ Santa Clara72–93
  • Wvs San Diego92–82
  • Wvs Pepperdine83–73

A week or more of rest.