1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. UNCO @ STAN
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

Northern Colorado Bears at Stanford Cardinal

Maples Pavilion · at Stanford
#219UNCON Colorado
@
#85STANStanford
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCOThis seasonSTAN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STAN 84–68 · win probability STAN 92%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STAN has more of the edges

UNCO 1, STAN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UNCO has played the 303rd-hardest schedule, STAN the 76th. A record against a soft schedule means less
STANBig
STAN offense vs UNCO defense
Offense 88th of 366 against a defense 281st, on the model’s ratings
STANBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCO 15.5%, STAN 15.5%. Forced: UNCO 12.4%, STAN 18.0%
UNCOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCO 55.7 and allows 50.1; STAN 51.5 and allows 51.0
STANSmall
UNCO offense vs STAN defense
Offense 167th of 366 against a defense 79th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNCO plays 71.3 a game (60th fastest), STAN 68.1 (225th). Faster games mean more points
STANSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCO 27.5, STAN 35.5. Allowed: UNCO 38.8, STAN 40.3
STANSmall
Home court
STAN at home. This season: STAN 0-0 at home, UNCO 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UNCO hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%; STAN hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 41.5% and 44.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCO 27.2%, STAN 32.5%. Defensive: UNCO 75.8%, STAN 70.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCO 28%, STAN 27%. Transfers in: UNCO 4, STAN 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—STAN -16.0—
Total—152.8—
Projected score—UNCO 68.4 · STAN 84.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSTAN -9.4—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreUNCO 31 · STAN 40.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Stanford has the better starters

Position by position: N Colorado 0, Stanford 3, even 2
N ColoradoBetterStanford
G L. Reynolds TR11.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
Even
G C. Bliss TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 5.9 ast Score 84
G V. Delano6.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
STANBig
F N. Townsend TR16.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 93
G C. Tramble TR3.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 16
STANBig
F A. Cammann6.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 56
F K. Rayfield TR6.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 40
Even
F D. Young2.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 26
C E. Shields6.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
STANSmall
C A. Maurer TR7.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
N ColoradoBetterStanford
UNCO offense167th of 366 · -5.1
STANSmall
STAN defense79th of 366 · +0.4
UNCO defense281st of 366 · -7.0
STANBig
STAN offense88th of 366 · +0.2
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
STANBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
STANBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 4 players
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
STANSmall
Bench-0.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUNCO betterSTAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Colorado
Guards
L. Reynolds33 min · TRV. Delano20 minC. Tramble12 min · TRA. Mawien8 minT. Braketa5 minC. BloggNew
Forwards
K. Rayfield20 min · TRA. Crawford5 min · TRM. ShareefNewD. PaineNew
Centers
E. Shields18 minH. Caldwell4 min
Stanford
Guards
C. Bliss40 min · TRE. Kitch1 minA. BatsonNewM. JonesNewJ. PriceNewI. RogersNew
Forwards
N. Townsend34 min · TRA. Cammann22 minD. Young15 minK. Skrinda6 minE. Stinson5 minT. Toure4 min
Centers
A. Maurer18 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCOSTAN
Scoring
80.8 #51Points per game76.0 #142
1.14 #75Points per possession1.12 #108
71.3 #60Pace (possessions)68.1 #225
Shooting
55.7 #24Effective FG%51.5 #173
35.0 #1213-point %35.2 #103
41.5 #1403-point attempt rate44.0 #89
27.5 #348Free throw rate35.5 #165
Possessions
15.5 #103Turnover rate15.5 #105
27.2 #288Offensive rebound rate32.5 #109
15.8 #54Assists per game11.8 #299
Defense
78.1 #270Points allowed73.0 #132
1.09 #209Points allowed per possession1.07 #136
50.1 #106Opponent effective FG%51.0 #158
30.7 #28Opponent 3-point %33.0 #118
12.4 #363Turnovers forced18.0 #99
75.8 #6Defensive rebound rate70.2 #149
4.0 #364Steals per game7.8 #53
2.7 #273Blocks per game3.9 #93
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Colorado

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Montana89–95
  • Wvs Montana85–57
  • W@ Idaho76–67
  • L@ E Washington72–82
  • Wvs N Arizona78–77

A week or more of rest.

Stanford

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Virginia77–82
  • Lvs Pitt63–64
  • W@ NC State85–84
  • W@ Notre Dame86–78
  • Wvs SMU95–75

A week or more of rest.