Idaho State Bengals at Northern Colorado Bears: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 8:00 PM ETBank of Colorado Arena · at N Colorado · Conference game

#344IDSTIdaho St72final

Final

#219UNCON Colorado85▲ winner

Closing lineUNCO -4.5✓ UNCO covered by 8.5

Closing total155.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Idaho St and N Colorado
IDST	This season	UNCO
5-7	Record	7-5
9-3	ATS	7-5
7-5	O/U	9-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IDST 77–81 UNCO · ✓ UNCO (63%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IDST	25	47	72
UNCO	40	45	85

1st half: IDST 25, UNCO 40 (UNCO by 15). The model had UNCO by 2.1 and a total of 73.7 (actual 65).

Team stats

IDST		UNCO
26-57 46%	Field goals	29-56 52%
3-17 18%	3-pointers	16-35 46%
17-23 74%	Free throws	11-15 73%
35 12 off	Rebounds	31 7 off
2	Assists	16
4	Steals	5
3	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	8
15	Fouls	23
34	Points in paint	26
11	Fast-break points	8

Players

IDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamison Guerra PG	27	26	2	1	9-13	2-3
Connor Hollenbeck F	27	2	5	0	0-4	0-2
Lachlan Brewer G	26	2	4	0	1-4	0-2
Martin Kheil G	19	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Evan Otten F	19	6	1	0	3-5	0-0
Bench
Cheikh Sow G	27	10	12	1	4-7	0-2
Louis Bond G	19	9	1	0	3-3	1-1
Gus Etchison G	13	10	3	0	4-9	0-2
Blake Daberkow F	11	5	1	0	1-4	0-2
Caleb Van De Griend F	11	2	3	0	1-6	0-1
Quin Patterson F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kasen Carpenter, Trey Arland, Landen Birley, Jaedyn Brown

UNCO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quinn Denker G	36	10	3	11	3-8	1-4
Zach Bloch G	35	26	4	2	9-12	6-9
Ibu Yamazaki F	33	16	5	0	5-15	4-13
Brock Wisne F	29	17	4	0	6-8	3-4
Egan Shields C	27	5	6	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Vincent Delano G	27	5	2	3	2-4	1-2
Ring Nyeri F	11	6	4	0	2-5	1-2
Ariik Mawien G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tanner Braketa G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Will Dixion III, Steven Ramirez Jr., Kaden Ericksen, Hunter Caldwell, Walker Asp, William Humer, Chancellor White

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCO -4.5	UNCO -3.8	IDST +0.7	L UNCO covered
Total	155.5	157.3	Over 1.8	W Over
Projected score	—	IDST 76.8 · UNCO 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCO -2.1	UNCO -15.0
1H total	73.7	65
1H projected score	IDST 35.8 · UNCO 37.9	IDST 25 · UNCO 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IDST WWLWL	9-3	75%	6-0	5-1
UNCO WLWLL	7-5	58%	0-2	4-4

Venue/role: IDST away, as underdog; UNCO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IDST OOOOO	7-5	58%	5-7
UNCO OOOOO	9-3	75%	7-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IDST	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
UNCO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

IDST 3–6 UNCOUNCO leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UNCO has won the last 2 meetings · IDST 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2024-25	UNCO 86 @ IDST 72	IDST +1.5	UNCO W
Jan 4, 2024-25	IDST 92 @ UNCO 93	UNCO -8.5	IDST W
Mar 10, 2023-24	IDST 83 vs UNCO 76	UNCO -4.5	IDST W
Mar 2, 2023-24	UNCO 81 @ IDST 79	IDST -1.5	UNCO W
Feb 1, 2023-24	IDST 86 @ UNCO 91	UNCO -9.5	IDST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Idaho St

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

9-3

75% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

W L L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-375%

W W W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-558%

U U O U O U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USD	W 71-68	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 9	@SDSU	L 57-73	+21.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 15	@SEA	L 74-83	+11.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 18	@SCU	L 55-64	+14.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 26	vsSHSU	L 81-84	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsCSUN	W 82-50	-1.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 3	@KC	W 68-59	-5.5	W +3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	vsDEN	W 93-79	-8.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 10	@UVU	L 69-73	+9.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 21	vsUCD	L 83-93	-5.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 176
Jan 1	vsSAC	W 97-84	-8.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 3	vsPRST	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USD

W 71-68

+7.5

SDSU

L 57-73

+5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+2.5

SCU

L 55-64

+5.5

SHSU

L 81-84

−1.5

CSUN

W 82-50

+30.5

W 68-59

+3.5

DEN

W 93-79

+5.5

UVU

L 69-73

+5.5

UCD

L 83-93

−15.5

SAC

W 97-84

+4.5

PRST

L 87-93

−9.5

covered 9didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USD

W 71-68

−13.5

SDSU

L 57-73

−5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+18.5

SCU

L 55-64

−22.5

SHSU

L 81-84

+22.5

CSUN

W 82-50

−16.5

W 68-59

−10.5

DEN

W 93-79

+29.5

UVU

L 69-73

+0.5

UCD

L 83-93

+32.5

SAC

W 97-84

+27.5

PRST

L 87-93

+37.5

over 7under 5avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Colorado

12 games played

Straight up

7-5

58% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-3

75% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-558%

W L W W W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-558%

W W W L W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-375%

O U O O U U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	@PEPP	W 88-81	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSTMN	L 72-73	+4.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	@PORT	W 86-80	-3.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 23	vsCSUF	W 97-93	-8.5	L −4.5	164.5	O 190
Nov 26	@AF	W 71-53	-4.5	W +13.5	146.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OMA	W 75-70	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsSDAK	W 89-87	-8.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 176
Dec 16	@TTU	L 90-101	+25.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 191
Dec 20	vsDEN	L 79-86	-8.5	L −15.5	159.5	O 165
Dec 28	@COLO	W 86-81	+15.5	W +20.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 1	@MTST	L 75-89	+2.5	L −11.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 3	@MONT	L 79-88	-1.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+5.5

STMN

L 72-73

+3.5

PORT

W 86-80

+2.5

CSUF

W 97-93

−4.5

W 71-53

+13.5

OMA

W 75-70

+1.5

SDAK

W 89-87

−6.5

TTU

L 90-101

+14.5

DEN

L 79-86

−15.5

COLO

W 86-81

+20.5

MTST

L 75-89

−11.5

MONT

L 79-88

−10.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+15.5

STMN

L 72-73

−12.5

PORT

W 86-80

+8.5

CSUF

W 97-93

+25.5

W 71-53

−22.5

OMA

W 75-70

−12.5

SDAK

W 89-87

+13.5

TTU

L 90-101

+38.5

DEN

L 79-86

+5.5

COLO

W 86-81

+8.5

MTST

L 75-89

+9.5

MONT

L 79-88

+5.5

over 9under 3avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Idaho State Bengals at Northern Colorado Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Idaho St

N Colorado

Idaho St

N Colorado