Denver Pioneers at Idaho State Bengals: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 6:00 PM ETReed Gym · at Idaho St

#263DENDenver79final

Final

#344IDSTIdaho St93▲ winner

Closing lineIDST -8.5✓ IDST covered by 5.5

Closing total142.5Over by 29.5

Season records: Denver and Idaho St
DEN	This season	IDST
3-5	Record	3-4
6-2	ATS	6-1
8-0	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DEN 70–79 IDST · ✓ IDST (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DEN	37	42	79
IDST	43	50	93

1st half: DEN 37, IDST 43 (IDST by 6). The model had IDST by 5.3 and a total of 69.5 (actual 80).

Team stats

DEN		IDST
27-55 49%	Field goals	32-64 50%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	15-29 52%
20-27 74%	Free throws	14-18 78%
29 10 off	Rebounds	32 12 off
9	Assists	14
2	Steals	5
4	Blocks	7
10	Turnovers	6
17	Fouls	22
34	Points in paint	30
8	Fast-break points	4

Players

DEN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carson Johnson G	40	20	2	1	6-14	2-6
Jeremiah Burke F	38	13	7	1	6-10	1-5
Logan Kinsey F	36	21	7	1	6-9	1-2
Shaun Wysocki F	20	7	1	0	3-8	0-2
Julius Rollins G	16	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Gabe Oldham F	26	6	10	0	3-4	0-0
Zane Nelson G	22	10	1	6	2-6	1-3
Didier Maleng F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Josh Lee, Loch Cunningham, Corleone Dandridge, Devin Carney, Trajan Thompson, Kaden Holdbrook, Ian Motta

IDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lachlan Brewer G	37	17	7	2	7-11	3-6
Martin Kheil G	35	19	3	0	5-10	5-9
Connor Hollenbeck F	32	13	6	3	4-11	3-7
Jamison Guerra PG	27	9	3	5	2-10	1-3
Evan Otten F	17	9	4	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Caleb Van De Griend F	17	6	6	1	3-4	0-0
Cheikh Sow G	16	3	1	1	1-1	0-0
Gus Etchison G	13	15	1	2	6-10	3-3
Blake Daberkow F	6	2	0	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Quin Patterson, Landen Birley, Trey Arland, Jaedyn Brown, Louis Bond, Kasen Carpenter

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IDST -8.5	IDST -9.0	IDST +0.5	W IDST covered
Total	142.5	148.3	Over 5.8	W Over
Projected score	—	DEN 69.7 · IDST 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IDST -5.3	IDST -6.0
1H total	69.5	80
1H projected score	DEN 32.1 · IDST 37.4	DEN 37 · IDST 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWWLW	6-2	75%	5-1	5-1
IDST WWLWW	6-1	86%	—	2-0

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; IDST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OOOOO	8-0	100%	3-5
IDST OUOUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 8	3-5 38%	6-2 75%	8-0 100%
IDSTlast 7	3-4 43%	6-1 86%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DEN 2–0 IDSTDEN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · DEN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 3, 2023-24	IDST 82 @ DEN 95	DEN -6.5	DEN W
Nov 18, 2022-23	DEN 70 @ IDST 69	IDST -3.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Denver

8 games played

Straight up

3-5

38% wins

Against the spread

6-2

75% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-0

100% overs · avg +13.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-538%

L L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-275%

W W W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-0100%

O O O O O O O O

8 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SEA	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 6	@WASH	L 70-84	+27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@MTST	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsUTSA	L 79-84	-4.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 21	@CSU	W 83-81	+18.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 24	@ARIZ	L 73-103	+32.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Nov 26	@WYO	L 59-101	+9.5	L −32.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 3	vsEWU	W 93-89	-1.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+2.5

WASH

L 70-84

+13.5

MTST

W 75-73

+9.5

UTSA

L 79-84

−9.5

CSU

W 83-81

+20.5

ARIZ

L 73-103

+2.5

WYO

L 59-101

−32.5

EWU

W 93-89

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+20.5

WASH

L 70-84

+0.5

MTST

W 75-73

+1.5

UTSA

L 79-84

+14.5

CSU

W 83-81

+14.5

ARIZ

L 73-103

+21.5

WYO

L 59-101

+6.5

EWU

W 93-89

+26.5

over 8under 0avg +13.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Idaho St

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +7.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USD	W 71-68	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 9	@SDSU	L 57-73	+21.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 15	@SEA	L 74-83	+11.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 18	@SCU	L 55-64	+14.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 26	vsSHSU	L 81-84	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsCSUN	W 82-50	-1.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 3	@KC	W 68-59	-5.5	W +3.5	137.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USD

W 71-68

+7.5

SDSU

L 57-73

+5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+2.5

SCU

L 55-64

+5.5

SHSU

L 81-84

−1.5

CSUN

W 82-50

+30.5

W 68-59

+3.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USD

W 71-68

−13.5

SDSU

L 57-73

−5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+18.5

SCU

L 55-64

−22.5

SHSU

L 81-84

+22.5

CSUN

W 82-50

−16.5

W 68-59

−10.5

over 2under 5avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Denver Pioneers at Idaho State Bengals

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Denver

Idaho St

Denver

Idaho St