1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. CBU @ UCD
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

California Baptist Lancers at UC Davis Aggies

University Credit Union Center · at UC Davis
#203CBUCA Baptist
@
#182UCDUC Davis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CBUThis seasonUCD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCD 74–70 · win probability UCD 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCD has more of the edges

CBU 2, UCD 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CBUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CBU 37.5%, UCD 25.2%. Defensive: CBU 72.8%, UCD 69.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: CBU plays 68.3 a game (217th fastest), UCD 71.8 (39th). Faster games mean more points
UCDSmall
CBU offense vs UCD defense
Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
UCDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CBU 18%, UCD 57%. Transfers in: CBU 2, UCD 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CBU 18.0%, UCD 17.9%. Forced: CBU 16.9%, UCD 19.8%
CBUSmall
Three-pointers
CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%; UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 32.0% and 43.5% of their shots
UCDSmall
Home court
UCD at home. This season: UCD 0-0 at home, CBU 0-0 away
Even
UCD offense vs CBU defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CBU 35.9, UCD 40.5. Allowed: CBU 36.6, UCD 39.1
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3; UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7
Context
Schedule so far
CBU has played the 202nd-hardest schedule, UCD the 189th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCD -3.9—
Total—143.8—
Projected score—CBU 70 · UCD 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCD -2.2—
1H total67.3—
1H projected scoreCBU 32.6 · UCD 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: CA Baptist 1, UC Davis 1, even 3
CA BaptistBetterUC Davis
G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67
CBUSmall
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
UCDBig
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
CA BaptistBetterUC Davis
CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5
UCDSmall
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0
Even
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players
CBUSmall
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCBU betterUCD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
CA Baptist
Guards
E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew
Forwards
R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew
Centers
M. KovacNew
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CBUUCD
Scoring
72.7 #230Points per game76.1 #139
1.07 #209Points per possession1.06 #234
68.3 #217Pace (possessions)71.8 #39
Shooting
48.3 #308Effective FG%51.8 #157
33.4 #2003-point %34.4 #149
32.0 #3303-point attempt rate43.5 #102
35.9 #154Free throw rate40.5 #53
Possessions
18.0 #270Turnover rate17.9 #267
37.5 #13Offensive rebound rate25.2 #334
10.2 #355Assists per game15.1 #83
Defense
67.6 #28Points allowed76.0 #217
0.99 #18Points allowed per possession1.06 #104
46.3 #16Opponent effective FG%51.7 #197
29.5 #5Opponent 3-point %33.8 #172
16.9 #159Turnovers forced19.8 #29
72.8 #41Defensive rebound rate69.5 #182
5.5 #296Steals per game7.5 #81
2.9 #253Blocks per game2.7 #276
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kansas60–68
  • Wvs Utah Valley63–61
  • Wvs Utah Tech86–72
  • W@ Southern Utah82–75
  • Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.