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  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. SCU vs MCN
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

Santa Clara Broncos vs McNeese Cowboys

Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site
#106SCUSanta Clara
vs
#127MCNMcNeese
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SCUThis seasonMCN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 77–74 · win probability SCU 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

SCU 2, MCN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
SCU has played the 86th-hardest schedule, MCN the 258th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MCNSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SCU 25.5, MCN 37.4. Allowed: SCU 38.2, MCN 42.0
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: SCU plays 69.7 a game (135th fastest), MCN 67.1 (276th). Faster games mean more points
SCUSmall
Three-pointers
SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%; MCN hits 31.7% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 45.0% and 35.2% of their shots
SCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SCU 36.4%, MCN 35.1%. Defensive: SCU 67.9%, MCN 65.1%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SCU 15.3%, MCN 14.2%. Forced: SCU 20.1%, MCN 24.4%
Even
SCU offense vs MCN defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 117th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SCU 42%, MCN 33%. Transfers in: SCU 3, MCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MCN offense vs SCU defense
Offense 153rd of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0; MCN 50.7 and allows 49.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SCU -3.2—
Total—150.7—
Projected score—SCU 76.9 · MCN 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSCU -2.0—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreSCU 36.2 · MCN 34.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

McNeese has the better starters

Position by position: Santa Clara 0, McNeese 2, even 3
Santa ClaraBetterMcNeese
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
MCNBig
G L. Johnson16.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 98
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
Even
G C. Cherenfant3.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
No call
G D. Warren TR1.2 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
Even
F J. Colbert5.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 29
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
MCNSmall
F C. Chest TR2.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 71
Santa ClaraBetterMcNeese
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Even
MCN defense117th of 366 · -1.6
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
Even
MCN offense153rd of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
MCNBig
Backcourt+3.2 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSCU betterMCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
McNeese
Guards
L. Johnson26 minC. Cherenfant16 minD. Warren8 min · TRE. Moore5 min · TRJ. Rembert4 minJ. Dean-Vines3 min · TR
Forwards
J. Colbert20 minC. Chest13 min · TRA. Maluk7 min · TRC. NituNewM. MadisonNewA. MazouNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SCUMCN
Scoring
82.9 #30Points per game76.6 #131
1.18 #37Points per possession1.14 #69
69.7 #135Pace (possessions)67.1 #276
Shooting
54.5 #53Effective FG%50.7 #202
34.9 #1253-point %31.7 #290
45.0 #673-point attempt rate35.2 #269
25.5 #363Free throw rate37.4 #114
Possessions
15.3 #86Turnover rate14.2 #28
36.4 #20Offensive rebound rate35.1 #46
16.6 #33Assists per game13.1 #205
Defense
73.5 #141Points allowed67.4 #23
1.06 #117Points allowed per possession1.00 #27
52.0 #213Opponent effective FG%49.3 #76
33.1 #127Opponent 3-point %32.7 #102
20.1 #20Turnovers forced24.4 #1
67.9 #262Defensive rebound rate65.1 #338
8.7 #14Steals per game10.3 #1
3.6 #125Blocks per game4.4 #42
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

McNeese

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 21-3 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–78
  • Wvs SF Austin76–59
  • Wvs UT Rio Grande84–80
  • W@ Nicholls75–65
  • W@ LSU N Orleans66–63

A week or more of rest.