Northwestern State Demons at McNeese Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 5, 7:30 PM ETTownsley Law Arena · at McNeese · Conference game

Final

#127MCNMcNeese92▲ winner

Closing lineMCN -19.5✓ MCN covered by 18.5

Closing total139.5Over by 6.5

Season records: N'Western St and McNeese
NWST	This season	MCN
0-6	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	4-2
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NWST 64–81 MCN · ✓ MCN (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NWST	24	30	54
MCN	58	34	92

1st half: NWST 24, MCN 58 (MCN by 34). The model had MCN by 10.5 and a total of 67.8 (actual 82).

Team stats

NWST		MCN
18-51 35%	Field goals	36-64 56%
10-33 30%	3-pointers	8-17 47%
8-11 73%	Free throws	12-16 75%
23 8 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
13	Assists	23
8	Steals	13
1	Blocks	4
19	Turnovers	10
13	Fouls	15
10	Points in paint	54
6	Fast-break points	27

Players

NWST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Willie Williams F	22	0	5	0	0-1	0-0
Landyn Jumawan G	20	0	3	0	0-6	0-6
Kordrick Turner F	15	2	2	0	0-1	0-0
Micah Thomas G	9	3	1	0	1-2	1-1
Chip Brunt G	8	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Justin Redmond G	31	15	2	4	6-13	3-9
Izzy Miles G	31	14	2	4	4-11	2-6
Chris Mubiru G	29	12	3	4	4-6	2-4
Omar Adegbola G	17	3	1	0	1-6	1-4
Moustapha Loum F	11	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Quentin Bolton G	7	3	1	0	1-3	1-3

Did not play: CJ Larry, Seth Ned, J.C. Riley Jr.

MCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javohn Garcia G	25	9	5	4	3-8	2-3
Larry Johnson G	22	14	8	6	6-12	0-1
Garwey Dual G	21	12	1	3	5-8	1-2
Carl Cherenfant G	20	12	3	2	5-6	1-1
Peitok Machar F	16	6	5	1	2-4	0-0
Bench
Tyshawn Archie G	24	14	3	3	5-10	2-4
DJ Richards Jr. G	23	8	3	0	3-6	2-5
Jacolb Fredson-Cole F	20	9	3	2	4-7	0-1
Yanis Ndjonga F	13	4	4	0	1-1	0-0
Jerrell Colbert F	11	4	2	1	2-2	0-0
JJ Rembert G	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Akim Mazou, Kaleb Brewer, Erik Villarreal, T'Johnn Brown

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MCN -19.5	MCN -17.7	NWST +1.8	L MCN covered
Total	139.5	144.7	Over 5.2	W Over
Projected score	—	NWST 63.5 · MCN 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MCN -10.5	MCN -34.0
1H total	67.8	82
1H projected score	NWST 28.6 · MCN 39.1	NWST 24 · MCN 58

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NWST LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-3	3-3
MCN WWWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	3-1

Venue/role: NWST away, as underdog; MCN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NWST UOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
MCN OOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NWSTlast 6	0-6 0%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%
MCNlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NWST 1–9 MCNMCN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MCN has won the last 5 meetings · NWST 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 11, 2024-25	NWST 64 @ MCN 83	MCN -14.5	MCN W
Feb 8, 2024-25	NWST 50 @ MCN 65	MCN -17.5	NWST W
Jan 6, 2024-25	MCN 92 @ NWST 69	NWST +11.5	MCN W
Jan 29, 2023-24	NWST 65 @ MCN 89	MCN -19.5	MCN W
Jan 8, 2023-24	MCN 68 @ NWST 59	NWST +19.5	NWST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N'Western St

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 21	@GCU	L 72-85	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 29	vsSOU	L 73-75	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

GCU

L 72-85

+5.5

SOU

L 73-75

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

GCU

L 72-85

+9.5

SOU

L 73-75

+3.5

over 5under 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

McNeese

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SCU	L 67-79	+6.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 14	vsUL	W 88-62	-15.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 23	vsGW	W 92-86	+5.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMUR	W 73-60	-2.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsMTSU	W 72-62	-9.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 134
Dec 1	@UIW	L 67-71	-10.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+10.5

W 92-86

+11.5

MUR

W 73-60

+10.5

MTSU

W 72-62

+0.5

UIW

L 67-71

−14.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCU

L 67-79

−5.5

W 88-62

+15.5

W 92-86

+20.5

MUR

W 73-60

−25.5

MTSU

W 72-62

−13.5

UIW

L 67-71

−7.5

over 2under 4avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern State Demons at McNeese Cowboys

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N'Western St

McNeese

N'Western St

McNeese