Sacramento State Hornets at California Baptist Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 20, 8:00 PM ETDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center · at CA Baptist

Final

#203CBUCA Baptist74▲ winner

Closing lineCBU -14.5✓ SAC covered by 7.5

Closing total158.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Sacramento St and CA Baptist
SAC	This season	CBU
1-6	Record	9-3
3-4	ATS	6-6
3-4	O/U	4-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAC 67–81 CBU · ✓ CBU (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAC	34	33	67
CBU	38	36	74

1st half: SAC 34, CBU 38 (CBU by 4). The model had CBU by 7.8 and a total of 69.3 (actual 72).

Team stats

SAC		CBU
26-71 37%	Field goals	23-57 40%
10-32 31%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
5-6 83%	Free throws	21-30 70%
40 17 off	Rebounds	45 17 off
8	Assists	12
7	Steals	5
3	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	13
23	Fouls	14
16	Points in paint	32
0	Fast-break points	6

Players

SAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jahni Summers G	35	21	4	0	7-10	6-8
Mikey Williams G	33	18	3	5	7-23	2-8
Mark Lavrenov F	28	8	9	1	3-5	0-0
Taj Glover G	26	5	6	1	2-8	1-2
Shaqir O'Neal F	25	4	3	0	2-8	0-4
Bench
Brandon Gardner F	22	2	9	1	1-6	0-4
Jayden Teat G	16	9	2	0	4-8	1-3
Arman Madi G	12	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Jeremiah Nyarko F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bear Cherry, Prophet Johnson, Romari Robinson, Zach Anderson, Isaiah Bronson, Davis Ambuehl

CBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Martel Williams G	40	14	5	4	6-11	2-2
Dominique Daniels Jr. G	30	11	4	3	2-8	0-1
Thomas Ndong F	29	12	17	0	4-6	0-0
Devon Malcolm G	24	9	4	3	2-11	0-3
Jordan Muller G	23	8	1	0	2-10	1-5
Bench
Jayden Jackson G	26	12	1	1	4-7	4-7
Jonathan Griman F	23	5	8	1	2-3	0-0
Nate Garcia C	5	3	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Dollar, Mouhamadou Dioum, Bradey Henige, Chase Mayo Harmon, Miles Daniels, Rene D'Amelio, OJ Blankson, Monty Bowser

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CBU -14.5	CBU -13.2	SAC +1.3	W SAC covered
Total	158.5	147.9	Under 10.6	W Under
Projected score	—	SAC 67.4 · CBU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CBU -7.8	CBU -4.0
1H total	69.3	72
1H projected score	SAC 30.7 · CBU 38.5	SAC 34 · CBU 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC LLLLW	3-4	43%	2-3	3-3
CBU WLLWL	6-6	50%	1-4	3-4

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; CBU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC UUOUO	3-4	43%	1-6
CBU UUOOU	4-8	33%	9-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
CBU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacramento St

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsUCSB	L 87-92	+7.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 14	@UCD	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 16	vsPRES	W 64-62	-6.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@UCLA	L 48-79	+27.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@CAL	L 67-91	+21.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 29	@PAC	L 54-68	+10.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 122
Dec 2	@BAY	L 88-110	+29.5	W +7.5	158.5	O 198

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+2.5

UCD

L 73-77

+0.5

PRES

W 64-62

−4.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−3.5

CAL

L 67-91

−2.5

PAC

L 54-68

−3.5

BAY

L 88-110

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+17.5

UCD

L 73-77

−1.5

PRES

W 64-62

−24.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−19.5

CAL

L 67-91

+3.5

PAC

L 54-68

−24.5

BAY

L 88-110

+39.5

over 3under 4avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

CA Baptist

12 games played

Straight up

9-3

75% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-375%

W W W W W W W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

L W L W L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-833%

O U U U U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 1	@COLO	L 70-78	+13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 3	@BYU	L 60-91	+18.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 6	@UTAH	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 12	@EWU	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 171
Dec 16	vsSOU	W 75-67	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

COLO

L 70-78

+5.5

BYU

L 60-91

−12.5

UTAH

L 85-91

−0.5

EWU

W 88-83

+1.5

SOU

W 75-67

−4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

COLO

L 70-78

−2.5

BYU

L 60-91

−2.5

UTAH

L 85-91

+30.5

EWU

W 88-83

+17.5

SOU

W 75-67

−13.5

over 4under 8avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacramento State Hornets at California Baptist Lancers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacramento St

CA Baptist

Sacramento St

CA Baptist