Lamar Cardinals at San Diego State Aztecs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 10, 10:00 PM ETViejas Arena · at San Diego St

#293LAMLamar71final

Final

#75SDSUSan Diego St89▲ winner

Closing lineSDSU -17.5✓ SDSU covered by 0.5

Closing total135.5Over by 24.5

Season records: Lamar and San Diego St
LAM	This season	SDSU
3-3	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LAM 60–77 SDSU · ✓ SDSU (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LAM	41	30	71
SDSU	51	38	89

1st half: LAM 41, SDSU 51 (SDSU by 10). The model had SDSU by 9.9 and a total of 64.4 (actual 92).

Team stats

LAM		SDSU
21-58 36%	Field goals	29-60 48%
14-35 40%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
15-20 75%	Free throws	23-31 74%
30 9 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
13	Assists	13
9	Steals	6
5	Blocks	6
18	Turnovers	13
20	Fouls	19
10	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	14

Players

LAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rob Lee Jr. G	36	21	6	3	5-13	5-10
Andrew Holifield F	33	11	6	2	3-12	2-9
Cody Pennebaker G	21	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Errol White F	20	6	3	1	2-4	0-0
Braden East F	20	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
King-Njhsanni Wilhite G	21	10	2	5	3-8	3-5
Janko Bulajic C	18	2	4	1	0-0	0-0
B.B. Knight G	15	12	1	1	4-10	3-7
Eian Lowe G	10	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Jayden Gambrell G	4	3	0	0	1-5	1-4
Spencer Ezewiro F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Quinton Sanders, Christian Thomas, Jayden Barrs, Izuchukwu Emelife

SDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miles Byrd G	30	19	5	4	6-10	3-5
Reese Dixon-Waters G	22	9	3	2	4-11	1-3
Magoon Gwath F	20	10	6	0	5-12	0-2
Miles Heide F	17	4	7	0	2-3	0-1
Elzie Harrington G	12	3	0	0	1-4	1-2
Bench
Sean Newman Jr. G	23	8	0	3	2-5	1-2
BJ Davis G	22	16	5	2	5-8	1-1
Pharaoh Compton F	15	8	6	1	1-2	0-0
Jeremiah Oden F	15	6	3	1	2-4	1-2
Taj DeGourville G	13	3	2	0	1-1	0-0
Tae Simmons F	11	3	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Thokbor Majak, Latrell Davis, Raymar Gonzales, Cam Lawin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SDSU -17.5	SDSU -16.6	LAM +0.9	L SDSU covered
Total	135.5	137.5	Over 2.0	W Over
Projected score	—	LAM 60.4 · SDSU 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDSU -9.9	SDSU -10.0
1H total	64.4	92
1H projected score	LAM 27.3 · SDSU 37.2	LAM 41 · SDSU 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAM WWLLL	3-3	50%	3-0	2-1
SDSU LLWLW	3-4	43%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: LAM away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAM OUOUU	2-4	33%	3-3
SDSU OUOOU	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAMlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
SDSUlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lamar

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@TCU	L 65-78	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 17	@ULM	W 79-66	-11.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 23	@MONT	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 131
Nov 24	vsOAK	L 68-83	+3.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 151
Dec 3	vsUL	W 65-55	-10.5	L −0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsAMCC	L 49-57	-3.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 106

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

+5.5

ULM

W 79-66

+1.5

MONT

W 68-63

+9.5

OAK

L 68-83

−11.5

W 65-55

−0.5

AMCC

L 49-57

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

−4.5

ULM

W 79-66

+4.5

MONT

W 68-63

−17.5

OAK

L 68-83

+2.5

W 65-55

−9.5

AMCC

L 49-57

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego St

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +16.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172
Dec 3	vsUVU	W 77-66	-8.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

UVU

W 77-66

+2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

UVU

W 77-66

−1.5

over 3under 4avg +16.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lamar Cardinals at San Diego State Aztecs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lamar

San Diego St

Lamar

San Diego St