Utah Valley Wolverines at San Diego State Aztecs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 10:00 PM ETViejas Arena · at San Diego St

Final

#75SDSUSan Diego St77▲ winner

Closing lineSDSU -8.5✓ SDSU covered by 2.5

Closing total144.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Utah Valley and San Diego St
UVU	This season	SDSU
3-2	Record	3-3
3-2	ATS	2-4
2-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UVU 72–78 SDSU · ✓ SDSU (71%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UVU	32	34	66
SDSU	33	44	77

1st half: UVU 32, SDSU 33 (SDSU by 1). The model had SDSU by 3.6 and a total of 70.3 (actual 65).

Team stats

UVU		SDSU
23-55 42%	Field goals	25-56 45%
10-27 37%	3-pointers	5-15 33%
10-15 67%	Free throws	22-28 79%
32 11 off	Rebounds	35 12 off
16	Assists	13
10	Steals	12
1	Blocks	4
19	Turnovers	13
20	Fouls	18
26	Points in paint	34
10	Fast-break points	9

Players

UVU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trevan Leonhardt G	39	13	5	5	5-12	1-4
Tyler Hendricks G	38	15	4	3	5-8	5-7
Jackson Holcombe G	36	17	10	5	5-10	0-2
Noah Taitz G	27	3	2	1	1-4	1-4
Isaac Davis F	16	2	3	0	1-5	0-1
Bench
Hayden Welling F	23	14	1	1	5-12	3-6
Sherman Weatherspoon IV G	11	0	3	0	0-3	0-3
Isaac Hawkins F	10	2	1	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Joul Karram, Tyler Medaris, Tyler Weaver, AJ Dixon, Jaxson Roberts, AJ Riggs, Braden Housley

SDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Reese Dixon-Waters G	25	7	1	1	3-10	1-3
Elzie Harrington G	20	4	2	2	2-5	0-1
Miles Byrd G	20	0	1	1	0-5	0-3
Magoon Gwath F	16	7	5	0	2-6	0-1
Miles Heide F	5	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
BJ Davis G	24	18	4	2	4-8	2-4
Pharaoh Compton F	22	12	5	0	5-8	0-0
Taj DeGourville G	20	3	1	4	1-3	1-2
Sean Newman Jr. G	17	4	1	3	1-1	0-0
Jeremiah Oden F	17	7	2	0	3-3	0-0
Tae Simmons F	14	15	7	0	4-6	1-1

Did not play: Thokbor Majak, Latrell Davis, Raymar Gonzales, Cam Lawin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SDSU -8.5	SDSU -6.3	UVU +2.2	L SDSU covered
Total	144.5	150.2	Over 5.7	L Under
Projected score	—	UVU 71.9 · SDSU 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDSU -3.6	SDSU -1.0
1H total	70.3	65
1H projected score	UVU 33.3 · SDSU 37	UVU 32 · SDSU 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVU LLWWW	3-2	60%	0-2	0-1
SDSU LLLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: UVU away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVU OUOUU	2-3	40%	3-2
SDSU UOUOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
SDSUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah Valley

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +9.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BOIS	L 77-101	+12.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 15	@FRES	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUCI	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 25	vsSDST	W 75-52	-1.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsSAM	W 89-45	-7.5	W +36.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

−11.5

FRES

L 74-75

−5.5

UCI

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

W 75-52

+21.5

SAM

W 89-45

+36.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

+26.5

FRES

L 74-75

−7.5

UCI

W 79-72

+1.5

SDST

W 75-52

−24.5

SAM

W 89-45

−14.5

over 2under 3avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego St

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +19.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLBSU	W 77-45	-25.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 9	vsIDST	W 73-57	-21.5	L −5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsTROY	L 107-108	-14.5	L −15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 24	vsMICH	L 54-94	+6.5	L −33.5	148.5	U 148
Nov 25	vsORE	W 97-80	+2.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsBAY	L 81-91	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

+6.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

−15.5

MICH

L 54-94

−33.5

ORE

W 97-80

+19.5

BAY

L 81-91

−7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LBSU

W 77-45

−13.5

IDST

W 73-57

−5.5

TROY

L 107-108

+77.5

MICH

L 54-94

−0.5

ORE

W 97-80

+35.5

BAY

L 81-91

+23.5

over 3under 3avg +19.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Valley Wolverines at San Diego State Aztecs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah Valley

San Diego St

Utah Valley

San Diego St