Wichita State Shockers vs Kansas State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 11, 8:30 PM ETT-Mobile Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wichita St and Kansas St
WICH	This season	KSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WICH 78–76 · win probability WICH 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

WICH 3, KSU 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WICHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WICH 38.0%, KSU 29.2%. Defensive: WICH 71.2%, KSU 66.0%

WICHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WICH 36.0, KSU 26.9. Allowed: WICH 34.3, KSU 35.2

WICHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WICH 55%, KSU 7%. Transfers in: WICH 4, KSU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: WICH plays 69.3 a game (164th fastest), KSU 73.8 (11th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

WICH has played the 106th-hardest schedule, KSU the 43rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WICH 15.0%, KSU 17.4%. Forced: WICH 15.7%, KSU 17.1%

Even

WICH offense vs KSU defense

Offense 78th of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

WICH hits 33.5% and allows 31.5%; KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 33.9% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WICH 49.4 and allows 47.2; KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5

Even

KSU offense vs WICH defense

Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 82nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WICH -2.0	—
Total	—	153.1	—
Projected score	—	WICH 77.6 · KSU 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -1.3	—
1H total	71.6	—
1H projected score	WICH 36.4 · KSU 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WICH WLLWW	23-12	66%	2-3	—
KSU LLWLL	12-20	38%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WICH neutral site; KSU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WICH UUUOO	15-20	43%	23-12
KSU UUUOO	16-16	50%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WICH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
KSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wichita St

No more games listed yet.

Kansas St

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WICH 1–3 KSUKSU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · WICH 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	KSU 65 @ WICH 84	WICH +1.5	WICH W
Dec 21, 2023-24	WICH 60 vs KSU 69	KSU -5.5	KSU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	WICH 50 @ KSU 55	KSU -7.5	WICH W
Dec 5, 2021-22	KSU 65 @ WICH 59	WICH -5.5	KSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wichita St

35 games played

Straight up

23-12

66% wins

Against the spread

23-12

66% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1266%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W L L W L W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

23-1266%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W L L W L W W W L W W L W L W W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-2043%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Jan 3	@CLT	L 100-104	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	vsRICE	L 64-66	-13.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsUNT	W 78-67	-8.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 15	@FAU	L 67-85	+3.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 18	@USF	W 86-85	+7.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 21	vsECU	W 77-60	-12.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsMEM	W 74-59	-3.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 133
Feb 1	@TLSA	L 83-93	+5.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsCLT	W 74-64	-9.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 8	@TULN	W 75-61	-5.5	W +8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsUSF	L 58-66	+2.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsTLSA	W 81-77	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 158
Feb 18	@ECU	W 92-89	-7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsTEM	W 69-57	-8.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 126
Feb 26	@MEM	W 88-82	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 170
Mar 1	@UTSA	W 84-67	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 7	vsFAU	W 88-70	-8.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsTLSA	W 81-68	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 149
Mar 15	vsUSF	L 55-70	+6.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 125
Mar 17	vsWYO	W 74-70	-5.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 144
Mar 22	@OKST	W 96-70	+2.5	W +28.5	164.5	O 166
Mar 24	@TLSA	L 79-83	+4.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

CLT

L 100-104

−9.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+2.5

FAU

L 67-85

−14.5

USF

W 86-85

+8.5

ECU

W 77-60

+4.5

MEM

W 74-59

+11.5

TLSA

L 83-93

−4.5

CLT

W 74-64

+0.5

TULN

W 75-61

+8.5

USF

L 58-66

−5.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+2.5

ECU

W 92-89

−4.5

TEM

W 69-57

+3.5

MEM

W 88-82

+7.5

UTSA

W 84-67

+1.5

FAU

W 88-70

+9.5

TLSA

W 81-68

+14.5

USF

L 55-70

−8.5

WYO

W 74-70

−1.5

OKST

W 96-70

+28.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+0.5

covered 23didn’t cover 12avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

CLT

L 100-104

+63.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

UNT

W 78-67

+9.5

FAU

L 67-85

−3.5

USF

W 86-85

+12.5

ECU

W 77-60

−7.5

MEM

W 74-59

−12.5

TLSA

L 83-93

+21.5

CLT

W 74-64

−5.5

TULN

W 75-61

−12.5

USF

L 58-66

−36.5

TLSA

W 81-77

+5.5

ECU

W 92-89

+31.5

TEM

W 69-57

−18.5

MEM

W 88-82

+20.5

UTSA

W 84-67

−0.5

FAU

W 88-70

+7.5

TLSA

W 81-68

−3.5

USF

L 55-70

−26.5

WYO

W 74-70

−4.5

OKST

W 96-70

+1.5

TLSA

L 79-83

+7.5

over 15under 20avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas St

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L L L L W W W W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

W L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O O O O U U U U U O O U O O U U U U U U O O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	@IU	L 69-86	+10.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsBGSU	L 66-82	-12.5	L −28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsHALL	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 8	vsMVSU	W 108-49	-38.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 13	@CREI	W 83-76	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsSDAK	W 106-76	-21.5	W +8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 28	vsULM	W 94-85	-32.5	L −23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBYU	L 73-83	+7.5	L −2.5	174.5	U 156
Jan 7	@ARIZ	L 76-101	+17.5	L −7.5	171.5	O 177
Jan 10	@ASU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsUCF	L 73-82	-2.5	L −11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	@OKST	L 83-84	+2.5	W +1.5	175.5	U 167
Jan 20	vsUTAH	W 81-78	-10.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	vsKU	L 62-86	+4.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 27	@WVU	L 54-59	+7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 113
Feb 1	vsISU	L 61-95	+12.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	@TCU	L 82-84	+9.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 11	vsCIN	L 62-91	+2.5	L −26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 14	@HOU	L 64-78	+22.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 17	vsBAY	W 90-74	+3.5	W +19.5	159.5	O 164
Feb 21	@TTU	L 72-100	+12.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 25	@COLO	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 149
Feb 28	vsTCU	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsWVU	W 65-63	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 7	@KU	L 85-104	+17.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 10	vsBYU	L 91-105	+11.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 196

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

L 69-86

−6.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−28.5

HALL

L 67-78

−13.5

MVSU

W 108-49

+20.5

CREI

W 83-76

+11.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+8.5

ULM

W 94-85

−23.5

BYU

L 73-83

−2.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

−7.5

ASU

L 84-87

−1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−11.5

OKST

L 83-84

+1.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−7.5

L 62-86

−19.5

WVU

L 54-59

+2.5

ISU

L 61-95

−21.5

TCU

L 82-84

+7.5

CIN

L 62-91

−26.5

HOU

L 64-78

+8.5

BAY

W 90-74

+19.5

TTU

L 72-100

−15.5

COLO

L 70-79

−3.5

TCU

L 68-77

−5.5

WVU

W 65-63

+5.5

L 85-104

−1.5

BYU

L 91-105

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

L 69-86

−9.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−11.5

HALL

L 67-78

−3.5

MVSU

W 108-49

−3.5

CREI

W 83-76

−0.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+5.5

ULM

W 94-85

+9.5

BYU

L 73-83

−18.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

+5.5

ASU

L 84-87

+1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−15.5

OKST

L 83-84

−8.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−9.5

L 62-86

−10.5

WVU

L 54-59

−33.5

ISU

L 61-95

−0.5

TCU

L 82-84

+10.5

CIN

L 62-91

+5.5

HOU

L 64-78

−2.5

BAY

W 90-74

+4.5

TTU

L 72-100

+13.5

COLO

L 70-79

−14.5

TCU

L 68-77

−14.5

WVU

W 65-63

−15.5

L 85-104

+31.5

BYU

L 91-105

+27.5

over 16under 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wichita St has the better starters

Position by position: Wichita St 3, Kansas St 0, even 2

Wichita StBetterKansas St

G J. Long TR11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4 ast Score 72

Even

G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G J. Frison TR16.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 4.1 ast Score 93

WICHBig

G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39

G M. Gray7.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 37

Even

G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50

G T. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 80

WICHSmall

F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51

C W. Berg8.8 pts · 8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 85

WICHBig

F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

Wichita StBetterKansas St

WICH offense78th of 366 · +0.8

Even

KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7

WICH defense82nd of 366 · +0.2

Even

KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4

Backcourt+3.8 · 4 players

WICHBig

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.8 · 1 player

WICHBig

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Bench+0.8 · 5 players

WICHSmall

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWICH betterKSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wichita St

Guards

J. Long34 min · TRJ. Frison31 min · TRM. Gray27 minT. Williams22 minB. Heard18 min · TRJ. IghovodjaNew

Forwards

D. Battie18 minJ. Valencia13 minN. Hill5 minH. Thengvall2 min

Centers

W. Berg22 minC. Malonga11 min · TR

Kansas St

Guards

B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew

Forwards

D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew

Centers

J. Rock13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WICH77.6 #105

KSU79.6 #74

Points per possession

WICH1.12 #98

KSU1.08 #191

Pace (possessions)

WICH69.3 #164

KSU73.8 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

WICH49.4 #274

KSU53.3 #88

3-point %

WICH33.5 #195

KSU36.4 #43

3-point attempt rate

WICH33.9 #300

KSU40.9 #148

Free throw rate

WICH36.0 #149

KSU26.9 #351

Possessions

Turnover rate

WICH15.0 #62

KSU17.4 #233

Offensive rebound rate

WICH38.0 #8

KSU29.2 #229

Assists per game

WICH11.3 #325

KSU16.8 #29

Defense

Points allowed

WICH70.8 #71

KSU81.8 #339

Points allowed per possession

WICH1.02 #42

KSU1.11 #244

Opponent effective FG%

WICH47.2 #24

KSU52.5 #239

Opponent 3-point %

WICH31.5 #44

KSU33.7 #166

Turnovers forced

WICH15.7 #238

KSU17.1 #145

Defensive rebound rate

WICH71.2 #93

KSU66.0 #317

Steals per game

WICH6.0 #235

KSU7.0 #121

Blocks per game

WICH3.8 #100

KSU3.5 #137

WICH		KSU
Scoring
77.6 #105	Points per game	79.6 #74
1.12 #98	Points per possession	1.08 #191
69.3 #164	Pace (possessions)	73.8 #11
Shooting
49.4 #274	Effective FG%	53.3 #88
33.5 #195	3-point %	36.4 #43
33.9 #300	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #148
36.0 #149	Free throw rate	26.9 #351
Possessions
15.0 #62	Turnover rate	17.4 #233
38.0 #8	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #229
11.3 #325	Assists per game	16.8 #29
Defense
70.8 #71	Points allowed	81.8 #339
1.02 #42	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #244
47.2 #24	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #239
31.5 #44	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #166
15.7 #238	Turnovers forced	17.1 #145
71.2 #93	Defensive rebound rate	66.0 #317
6.0 #235	Steals per game	7.0 #121
3.8 #100	Blocks per game	3.5 #137

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wichita St

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Tulsa79–83
W@ Oklahoma St96–70
Wvs Wyoming74–70
Lvs South Florida55–70
Wvs Tulsa81–68

A week or more of rest.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs BYU91–105
L@ Kansas85–104
Wvs West Virginia65–63
Lvs TCU68–77
L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.

Wichita State Shockers vs Kansas State Wildcats

What could decide it: WICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wichita St

Kansas St

Wichita St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wichita St

Kansas St