Bramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St · Conference game
Closing line
BAY -3.5✓ KSU covered by 19.5
BAY -3.5✓ KSU covered by 19.5Closing total159.5Over by 4.5
| BAY | This season | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| 12-12 | Record | 10-15 |
| 10-14 | ATS | 10-15 |
| 13-11 | O/U | 12-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BAY 85–80 KSU · ✗ BAY (66%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 34 | 40 | 74 |
| KSU | 41 | 49 | 90 |
1st half: BAY 34, KSU 41 (KSU by 7). The model had BAY by 3.0 and a total of 76.8 (actual 75).
Team stats
| BAY | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-70 40% | Field goals | 34-60 57% |
| 3-24 13% | 3-pointers | 8-17 47% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 41 18 off | Rebounds | 31 5 off |
| 12 | Assists | 18 |
| 11 | Steals | 13 |
| 5 | Blocks | 2 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 24 |
Players
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 37 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6-14 | 1-4 |
| Cameron Carr G | 36 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 5-12 | 0-5 |
| Obi Agbim G | 32 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4-13 | 0-5 |
| Isaac Williams IV G | 30 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 6-11 | 0-2 |
| Caden Powell C | 24 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 21 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
| Michael Rataj G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| James Nnaji C | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Kuykendall, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Andre Iguodala II, James Goodis, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez, JJ White
| KSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Johnson G | 39 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 11-16 | 5-8 |
| PJ Haggerty G | 38 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 15-23 | 1-2 |
| David Castillo G | 38 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Taj Manning F | 31 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Khamari McGriff F | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andrej Kostic G | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Dorin Buca C | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| CJ Jones G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Abdi Bashir Jr., Mobi Ikegwuruka, Marcus Johnson, Elias Rapieque, Exavier Wilson, Stephen Osei
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBAY -3.5
ModelBAY -4.8
Model edgeBAY +1.3
L KSU covered
Total
Market159.5
Model164.3
Model edgeOver 4.8
W Over
Projected score
BAY 84.5 · KSU 79.8
BAY 74 · KSU 90
Win probability
BAY 66%
1st half
Spread
BAY -3.0
KSU -7.0
Total
76.8
75 points
Projected score
BAY 39.9 · KSU 36.9
BAY 34 · KSU 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBAY -4.5
1 → KSU
CloseBAY -3.5
1 pt toward KSU
Total
Open165.5
▼ 6
Close159.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
BAY -180 · KSU +150
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAY -4.5 · closed BAY -3.5 · moved 1 toward KSUmodel BAY -5
model BAY -5
Opened 165.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 6 downmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| KSU | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BAY 4–3 KSUBAY leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · BAY has won the last 2 meetings · BAY 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | KSU 56 vs BAY 70 | BAY -6.5 | BAY W |
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | KSU 62 @ BAY 70 | BAY -11.5 | KSU W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | BAY 64 @ KSU 68 | KSU -1.5 | KSU W |
| Feb 21, 2022-23 | BAY 65 @ KSU 75 | KSU +1.5 | KSU W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | KSU 97 @ BAY 95 | BAY -7.5 | KSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Baylor
24 games played
Straight up
12-12
50% wins
Against the spread
10-14
42% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs ISU | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs HOU | L 55-77 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ OKST | W 94-79 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 16 | @ KU | L 62-80 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 20 | vs TTU | L 73-92 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsTCU | L 90-97 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 28 | @ CIN | L 57-67 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 31 | @ WVU | W 63-53 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 139.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 4 | vs COLO | W 86-67 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 7 | @ISU | L 69-72 | +14.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 10 | vs BYU | L 94-99 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 14 | vs LOU | L 71-82 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−6.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−19.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+13.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−10.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
−17.5
24
vsTCU
TCUL 90-97
−11.5
28
@CIN
CINL 57-67
−6.5
31
@WVU
WVUW 63-53
+12.5
4
vsCOLO
COLOW 86-67
+11.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 69-72
+11.5
10
vsBYU
BYUL 94-99
−1.5
14
vsLOU
LOUL 71-82
−3.5
covered 10didn’t cover 14avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−25.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−10.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+7.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−14.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
+10.5
24
vsTCU
TCUL 90-97
+39.5
28
@CIN
CINL 57-67
−21.5
31
@WVU
WVUW 63-53
−23.5
4
vsCOLO
COLOW 86-67
−2.5
7
@ISU
ISUL 69-72
−10.5
10
vsBYU
BYUL 94-99
+34.5
14
vsLOU
LOUL 71-82
−9.5
over 13under 11avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kansas St
25 games played
Straight up
10-15
40% wins
Against the spread
10-15
40% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-13
48% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs UNCG | W 93-64 | -18.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs BELL | W 98-71 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 13 | vs CAL | W 99-96 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 17 | vs TLSA | W 84-83 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 20 | vs MSST | W 98-77 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs NEB | L 85-86 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | @ IU | L 69-86 | +10.5 | L −6.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs BGSU | L 66-82 | -12.5 | L −28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs HALL | L 67-78 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 8 | vs MVSU | W 108-49 | -38.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | @CREI | W 83-76 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDAK | W 106-76 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 176.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 28 | vs ULM | W 94-85 | -32.5 | L −23.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vsBYU | L 73-83 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 174.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARIZ | L 76-101 | +17.5 | L −7.5 | 171.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ ASU | L 84-87 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 169.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs UCF | L 73-82 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 170.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 17 | @OKST | L 83-84 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | U 167 |
| Jan 20 | vs UTAH | W 81-78 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsKU | L 62-86 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 27 | @WVU | L 54-59 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 113 |
| Feb 1 | vsISU | L 61-95 | +12.5 | L −21.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Feb 7 | @TCU | L 82-84 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 11 | vsCIN | L 62-91 | +2.5 | L −26.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 14 | @HOU | L 64-78 | +22.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+10.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
−1.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
−3.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
−11.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+23.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+0.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−6.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−28.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−13.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
+20.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
+11.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+8.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
−23.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−2.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
−7.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
−1.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 73-82
−11.5
17
@OKST
OKSTL 83-84
+1.5
20
vsUTAH
UTAHW 81-78
−7.5
24
vsKU
KUL 62-86
−19.5
27
@WVU
WVUL 54-59
+2.5
1
vsISU
ISUL 61-95
−21.5
7
@TCU
TCUL 82-84
+7.5
11
vsCIN
CINL 62-91
−26.5
14
@HOU
HOUL 64-78
+8.5
covered 10didn’t cover 15avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+8.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
+0.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
+30.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
+6.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+10.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+2.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−9.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−11.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−3.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
−3.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
−0.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+5.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
+9.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−18.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
+5.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
+1.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 73-82
−15.5
17
@OKST
OKSTL 83-84
−8.5
20
vsUTAH
UTAHW 81-78
−9.5
24
vsKU
KUL 62-86
−10.5
27
@WVU
WVUL 54-59
−33.5
1
vsISU
ISUL 61-95
−0.5
7
@TCU
TCUL 82-84
+10.5
11
vsCIN
CINL 62-91
+5.5
14
@HOU
HOUL 64-78
−2.5
over 12under 13avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Baylor
12-12 overall · 3-9 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Louisville71–82
- Lvs BYU94–99
- L@ Iowa State69–72
- Wvs Colorado86–67
- W@ West Virginia63–53
3 days since their last game.
Kansas St
10-15 overall · 1-11 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Houston64–78
- Lvs Cincinnati62–91
- L@ TCU82–84
- Lvs Iowa State61–95
- L@ West Virginia54–59
3 days since their last game.