Foster Pavilion · at Baylor · Conference game
Closing line
BAY -4.5✓ TCU covered by 11.5
BAY -4.5✓ TCU covered by 11.5Closing total147.5Over by 39.5
 TCU | This season | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| 12-7 | Record | 10-7 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 7-10 |
| 8-11 | O/U | 11-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TCU 75–79 BAY · ✗ BAY (63%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 38 | 59 | 97 |
| BAY | 38 | 52 | 90 |
1st half: TCU 38, BAY 38 (tied). The model had BAY by 2.1 and a total of 72.0 (actual 76).
Team stats
| TCU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-54 52% | Field goals | 28-56 50% |
| 6-13 46% | 3-pointers | 8-26 31% |
| 35-43 81% | Free throws | 26-36 72% |
| 24 6 off | Rebounds | 37 12 off |
| 11 | Assists | 15 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 26 | Fouls | 28 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 22 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Pierre G | 36 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 3-4 |
| Micah Robinson G | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 25 | 23 | 10 | 0 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Brock Harding G | 25 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 3-9 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tanner Toolson G | 25 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Vianney Salatchoum C | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Kayden Edwards G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jace Posey G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Drew McElroy, Adam Stewart, Ashton Simmons, RJ Jones, David Punch, Trey Stuart, Malick Diallo
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Carr G | 36 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 7-13 | 0-3 |
| Caden Powell C | 28 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 26 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 7-10 | 1-2 |
| Obi Agbim G | 26 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 6-12 | 3-7 |
| Michael Rataj G | 24 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaac Williams IV G | 29 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-5 |
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 29 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Drew Perry G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Kuykendall G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: James Goodis, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, James Nnaji, JJ White
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBAY -3.5
1 → BAY
CloseBAY -4.5
1 pt toward BAY
Total
Open151.5
▼ 4
Close147.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
TCU +180 · BAY -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAY -3.5 · closed BAY -4.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel BAY -3.5
model BAY -3.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 4 downmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAY -4.5 | BAY -3.7 | TCU +0.8 | W TCU covered |
| Total | 147.5 | 153.8 | Over 6.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | TCU 75.1 · BAY 78.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BAY -2.1 | PK |
| 1H total | 72.0 | 76 |
| 1H projected score | TCU 35 · BAY 37 | TCU 38 · BAY 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| BAY | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TCU 4–5 BAYBAY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TCU 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | BAY 63 @ TCU 69 | TCU -2.5 | TCU W |
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | BAY 61 @ TCU 58 | TCU +4.5 | TCU W |
| Jan 19, 2024-25 | TCU 74 @ BAY 71 | BAY -12.5 | TCU W |
| Feb 26, 2023-24 | BAY 62 @ TCU 54 | TCU -2.5 | BAY W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | TCU 105 @ BAY 102 | BAY -3.5 | TCU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
TCU
19 games played
Straight up
12-7
63% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-11
42% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vs ND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 15 | vs UIW | W 69-65 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 18 | vs ORU | W 72-53 | -23.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 21 | vs FAMU | W 80-56 | -29.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vs JKST | W 115-64 | -30.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vsBAY | W 69-63 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 6 | @ KU | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARIZ | L 73-86 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 14 | @ BYU | L 70-76 | +13.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 17 | @ UTAH | L 79-82 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 20 | vs OKST | W 68-65 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−15.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−4.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−5.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+20.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
+3.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+2.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
−5.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
+7.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
−7.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−5.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−9.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−22.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−6.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+35.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
−22.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+60.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
+1.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
−16.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
+6.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−28.5
over 8under 11avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-6
65% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs ISU | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs HOU | L 55-77 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @OKST | W 94-79 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 16 | @KU | L 62-80 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 20 | vs TTU | L 73-92 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 154.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−6.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−19.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+13.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−10.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
−17.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−25.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−10.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+7.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−14.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 73-92
+10.5
over 11under 6avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
TCU
12-7 overall · 2-4 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oklahoma St68–65
- L@ Utah79–82
- L@ BYU70–76
- Lvs Arizona73–86
- L@ Kansas100–104
4 days since their last game.
Baylor
10-7 overall · 1-5 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Texas Tech73–92
- L@ Kansas62–80
- W@ Oklahoma St94–79
- Lvs Houston55–77
- Lvs Iowa State60–70
4 days since their last game.