Arizona Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 4:00 PM ETSchollmaier Arena · at TCU · Conference game

#5ARIZArizona AP #186▲ winner

Final

#40TCUTCU73final

Closing lineARIZ -7.5✓ ARIZ covered by 5.5

Closing total157.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Arizona and TCU
ARIZ	This season	TCU
15-0	Record	11-4
9-6	ATS	9-6
9-6	O/U	6-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ARIZ 82–72 TCU · ✓ ARIZ (81%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ARIZ	43	43	86
TCU	27	46	73

1st half: ARIZ 43, TCU 27 (ARIZ by 16). The model had ARIZ by 6.2 and a total of 72.2 (actual 70).

Team stats

ARIZ		TCU
34-67 51%	Field goals	25-59 42%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
11-15 73%	Free throws	17-24 71%
38 10 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
21	Assists	13
8	Steals	5
2	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	12
21	Fouls	16
42	Points in paint	32
23	Fast-break points	13

Players

ARIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brayden Burries G	33	6	6	4	2-8	2-3
Koa Peat F	32	20	7	3	10-17	0-2
Ivan Kharchenkov F	31	7	1	6	3-6	1-2
Motiejus Krivas C	27	8	10	0	2-8	0-0
Jaden Bradley G	22	17	2	4	6-10	1-3
Bench
Anthony Dell'Orso G	26	17	3	4	6-12	3-6
Tobe Awaka F	20	9	7	0	4-5	0-0
Dwayne Aristode F	9	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Evan Nelson, Mabil Mawut, Sidi Gueye, Addison Arnold, Sven Djopmo, Jackson Cook, Bryce James, Jackson Francois

TCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brock Harding G	36	11	5	6	5-11	0-3
David Punch F	33	10	8	0	5-12	0-3
Jayden Pierre G	28	11	0	2	3-6	1-3
Liutauras Lelevicius F	23	0	2	0	0-3	0-1
Xavier Edmonds F	22	7	3	2	2-6	1-3
Bench
Micah Robinson G	21	5	3	3	1-7	1-4
Tanner Toolson G	21	20	6	0	6-8	3-4
Jace Posey G	15	9	1	0	3-6	0-0
Kayden Edwards G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ashton Simmons, Vianney Salatchoum, Drew McElroy, Adam Stewart, RJ Jones, Malick Diallo, Trey Stuart

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARIZ -7.5	ARIZ -10.2	ARIZ +2.7	W ARIZ covered
Total	157.5	154.3	Under 3.2	L Over
Projected score	—	ARIZ 82.2 · TCU 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARIZ -6.2	ARIZ -16.0
1H total	72.2	70
1H projected score	ARIZ 39.2 · TCU 33	ARIZ 43 · TCU 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WLLWW	9-6	60%	2-0	7-6
TCU LLWWW	9-6	60%	5-6	4-0

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; TCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UOOOO	9-6	60%	15-0
TCU UUOUO	6-9	40%	11-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
TCU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ARIZ 2–0 TCUARIZ leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ARIZ has won the last 2 meetings · ARIZ 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2024-25	TCU 81 @ ARIZ 90	ARIZ -14.5	TCU W
Mar 20, 2021-22	TCU 80 vs ARIZ 85	ARIZ -10	TCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arizona

15 games played

Straight up

15-0

100% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-0100%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W

15 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-660%

W L L W W L W W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-660%

O U U U U O O O U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFLA	W 93-87	+3.5	W +9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUTU	W 93-67	-33.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 11	vsNAU	W 84-49	-35.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 14	vsUCLA	W 69-65	-1.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 19	@CONN	W 71-67	+4.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsDEN	W 103-73	-32.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsNORF	W 98-61	-35.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsAUB	W 97-68	-11.5	W +17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsALA	W 96-75	-2.5	W +18.5	178.5	U 171
Dec 16	vsACU	W 96-62	-34.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 20	vsSDSU	W 68-45	-13.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 113
Dec 22	vsBCU	W 107-71	-39.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 178
Dec 29	vsSDST	W 99-71	-31.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 3	@UTAH	W 97-78	-17.5	W +1.5	162.5	O 175
Jan 7	vsKSU	W 101-76	-17.5	W +7.5	171.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

W 93-87

+9.5

UTU

W 93-67

−7.5

NAU

W 84-49

−0.5

UCLA

W 69-65

+2.5

CONN

W 71-67

+8.5

DEN

W 103-73

−2.5

NORF

W 98-61

+1.5

AUB

W 97-68

+17.5

ALA

W 96-75

+18.5

ACU

W 96-62

−0.5

SDSU

W 68-45

+9.5

BCU

W 107-71

−3.5

SDST

W 99-71

−3.5

UTAH

W 97-78

+1.5

KSU

W 101-76

+7.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

W 93-87

+15.5

UTU

W 93-67

−2.5

NAU

W 84-49

−30.5

UCLA

W 69-65

−19.5

CONN

W 71-67

−18.5

DEN

W 103-73

+21.5

NORF

W 98-61

+12.5

AUB

W 97-68

+2.5

ALA

W 96-75

−7.5

ACU

W 96-62

+12.5

SDSU

W 68-45

−40.5

BCU

W 107-71

+23.5

SDST

W 99-71

+10.5

UTAH

W 97-78

+12.5

KSU

W 101-76

+5.5

over 9under 6avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

TCU

15 games played

Straight up

11-4

73% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-9

40% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-473%

L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

L W L W W W W L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-940%

O O U U U O U O U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNOLA	L 74-78	-21.5	L −25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 6	vsSFPA	W 104-63	-27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 10	vsLAM	W 78-65	-18.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 14	vsMICH	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	164.5	U 130
Nov 19	vsKC	W 81-45	-23.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 27	vsFLA	W 84-80	+11.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsWIS	W 74-63	+5.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 137
Dec 5	vsND	L 85-87	-6.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 7	@UNT	W 65-55	-9.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 15	vsUIW	W 69-65	-19.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 134
Dec 18	vsORU	W 72-53	-23.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 125
Dec 21	vsFAMU	W 80-56	-29.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 29	vsJKST	W 115-64	-30.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBAY	W 69-63	-2.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 132
Jan 6	@KU	L 100-104	+6.5	W +2.5	143.5	O 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

−25.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−5.5

MICH

L 63-67

+3.5

W 81-45

+12.5

FLA

W 84-80

+15.5

WIS

W 74-63

+16.5

L 85-87

−8.5

UNT

W 65-55

+0.5

UIW

W 69-65

−15.5

ORU

W 72-53

−4.5

FAMU

W 80-56

−5.5

JKST

W 115-64

+20.5

BAY

W 69-63

+3.5

L 100-104

+2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NOLA

L 74-78

+2.5

SFPA

W 104-63

+13.5

LAM

W 78-65

−4.5

MICH

L 63-67

−34.5

W 81-45

−24.5

FLA

W 84-80

+8.5

WIS

W 74-63

−20.5

L 85-87

+30.5

UNT

W 65-55

−15.5

UIW

W 69-65

−9.5

ORU

W 72-53

−22.5

FAMU

W 80-56

−6.5

JKST

W 115-64

+35.5

BAY

W 69-63

−22.5

L 100-104

+60.5

over 6under 9avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arizona @ TCU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Arizona

TCU

Arizona

TCU