Schollmaier Arena · at TCU · Conference game
Closing line
TCU -9.5✓ KSU covered by 7.5
TCU -9.5✓ KSU covered by 7.5Closing total155.5Over by 10.5
 KSU | This season | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-12 | Record | 13-9 |
| 8-14 | ATS | 11-11 |
| 10-12 | O/U | 10-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: KSU 74–82 TCU · ✓ TCU (74%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 46 | 36 | 82 |
| TCU | 42 | 42 | 84 |
1st half: KSU 46, TCU 42 (KSU by 4). The model had TCU by 4.3 and a total of 72.8 (actual 88).
Team stats
| KSU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-63 52% | Field goals | 27-59 46% |
| 11-26 42% | 3-pointers | 8-26 31% |
| 5-8 63% | Free throws | 22-36 61% |
| 25 8 off | Rebounds | 40 17 off |
| 24 | Assists | 18 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 5 | Blocks | 0 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| KSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Castillo G | 40 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
| PJ Haggerty G | 39 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 14-24 | 2-5 |
| Nate Johnson G | 37 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-6 |
| Khamari McGriff F | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Taj Manning F | 23 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Marcus Johnson F | 19 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| CJ Jones G | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Dorin Buca C | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Andrej Kostic, Stephen Osei, Exavier Wilson, Elias Rapieque, Mobi Ikegwuruka, Abdi Bashir Jr.
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Pierre G | 37 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 30 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 9-10 | 1-1 |
| David Punch F | 30 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-2 |
| Brock Harding G | 29 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Robinson G | 26 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 5-12 | 2-6 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 24 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Jace Posey G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Vianney Salatchoum C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Adam Stewart, Drew McElroy, Ashton Simmons, RJ Jones, Malick Diallo, Trey Stuart, Kayden Edwards
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTCU -9.5
ModelTCU -7.5
Model edgeKSU +2.0
W KSU covered
Total
Market155.5
Model155.5
Model edge—
Over
Projected score
KSU 74 · TCU 81.5
KSU 82 · TCU 84
Win probability
TCU 74%
1st half
Spread
TCU -4.3
KSU -4.0
Total
72.8
88 points
Projected score
KSU 34.2 · TCU 38.5
KSU 46 · TCU 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTCU -9.5
no move
CloseTCU -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open154.5
▲ 1
Close155.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
KSU +425 · TCU -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TCU -9.5 · unchangedmodel TCU -7.5
model TCU -7.5
Opened 154.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 upmodel 155.5 matches the line
model 155.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% |
| TCU | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
KSU 2–5 TCUTCU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TCU has won the last 3 meetings · KSU 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | KSU 62 @ TCU 63 | TCU -3.5 | KSU W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | TCU 75 @ KSU 72 | KSU -0.5 | TCU W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | TCU 80 vs KSU 67 | KSU +1.5 | TCU W |
| Feb 7, 2022-23 | TCU 61 @ KSU 82 | KSU -3.5 | KSU W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | KSU 68 @ TCU 82 | TCU -4.5 | TCU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kansas St
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
8-14
36% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-12
45% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs UNCG | W 93-64 | -18.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs BELL | W 98-71 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 13 | vs CAL | W 99-96 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 17 | vs TLSA | W 84-83 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 20 | vs MSST | W 98-77 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs NEB | L 85-86 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | @ IU | L 69-86 | +10.5 | L −6.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs BGSU | L 66-82 | -12.5 | L −28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs HALL | L 67-78 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 8 | vs MVSU | W 108-49 | -38.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | @ CREI | W 83-76 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDAK | W 106-76 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 176.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 28 | vs ULM | W 94-85 | -32.5 | L −23.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BYU | L 73-83 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 174.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARIZ | L 76-101 | +17.5 | L −7.5 | 171.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ ASU | L 84-87 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 169.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs UCF | L 73-82 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 170.5 | U 155 |
| Jan 17 | @ OKST | L 83-84 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | U 167 |
| Jan 20 | vs UTAH | W 81-78 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 168.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs KU | L 62-86 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 27 | @ WVU | L 54-59 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 113 |
| Feb 1 | vs ISU | L 61-95 | +12.5 | L −21.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+10.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
−1.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
−3.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
−11.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+23.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+0.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−6.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−28.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−13.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
+20.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
+11.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+8.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
−23.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−2.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
−7.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
−1.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 73-82
−11.5
17
@OKST
OKSTL 83-84
+1.5
20
vsUTAH
UTAHW 81-78
−7.5
24
vsKU
KUL 62-86
−19.5
27
@WVU
WVUL 54-59
+2.5
1
vsISU
ISUL 61-95
−21.5
covered 8didn’t cover 14avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+8.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
+0.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
+30.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
+6.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+10.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+2.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−9.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−11.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−3.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
−3.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
−0.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+5.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
+9.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−18.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
+5.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
+1.5
14
vsUCF
UCFL 73-82
−15.5
17
@OKST
OKSTL 83-84
−8.5
20
vsUTAH
UTAHW 81-78
−9.5
24
vsKU
KUL 62-86
−10.5
27
@WVU
WVUL 54-59
−33.5
1
vsISU
ISUL 61-95
−0.5
over 10under 12avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
TCU
22 games played
Straight up
13-9
59% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-12
45% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vs ND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 15 | vs UIW | W 69-65 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 18 | vs ORU | W 72-53 | -23.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 21 | vs FAMU | W 80-56 | -29.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vs JKST | W 115-64 | -30.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BAY | W 69-63 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 6 | @KU | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 10 | vsARIZ | L 73-86 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 14 | @BYU | L 70-76 | +13.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 17 | @UTAH | L 79-82 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 20 | vsOKST | W 68-65 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 24 | @BAY | W 97-90 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 28 | vs HOU | L 70-79 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 1 | @ COLO | L 61-87 | -1.5 | L −27.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−15.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−4.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−5.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+20.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
+3.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+2.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
−5.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
+7.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
−7.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−5.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 97-90
+11.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 70-79
−0.5
1
@COLO
COLOL 61-87
−27.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−9.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−22.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−6.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+35.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
−22.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+60.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
+1.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
−16.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
+6.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−28.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 97-90
+39.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 70-79
+9.5
1
@COLO
COLOL 61-87
−5.5
over 10under 12avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kansas St
10-12 overall · 1-8 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Iowa State61–95
- L@ West Virginia54–59
- Lvs Kansas62–86
- Wvs Utah81–78
- L@ Oklahoma St83–84
6 days since their last game.
TCU
13-9 overall · 3-6 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Colorado61–87
- Lvs Houston70–79
- W@ Baylor97–90
- Wvs Oklahoma St68–65
- L@ Utah79–82
6 days since their last game.