North Texas Mean Green at Wichita State Shockers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 11, 3:00 PM ETCharles Koch Arena · at Wichita St · Conference game

Final

#77WICHWichita St78▲ winner

Closing lineWICH -8.5✓ WICH covered by 2.5

Closing total135.5Over by 9.5

Season records: North Texas and Wichita St
UNT	This season	WICH
8-6	Record	8-7
9-5	ATS	9-6
4-10	O/U	6-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNT 63–70 WICH · ✓ WICH (72%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNT	27	40	67
WICH	37	41	78

1st half: UNT 27, WICH 37 (WICH by 10). The model had WICH by 3.8 and a total of 62.4 (actual 64).

Team stats

UNT		WICH
24-64 38%	Field goals	26-51 51%
3-10 30%	3-pointers	5-11 45%
16-22 73%	Free throws	21-29 72%
31 15 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
7	Assists	8
13	Steals	8
6	Blocks	7
12	Turnovers	18
22	Fouls	16
34	Points in paint	34
16	Fast-break points	15

Players

UNT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
David Terrell Jr. G	35	21	3	5	7-15	0-0
Je'Shawn Stevenson G	31	10	3	1	3-16	1-6
Dylan Arnett F	29	9	5	0	4-14	0-0
Cole Franklin G	28	12	3	0	5-6	0-0
Reece Robinson F	17	3	4	0	1-2	1-2
Bench
Buddy Hammer Jr. F	14	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Cahmai Crosby G	13	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Josiah Shackleford F	11	5	3	0	1-3	0-0
Demarion Watson G	9	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
EJ Horton G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Curtis Stinson Jr. G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Will McClendon

WICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenyon Giles G	40	33	3	1	13-17	4-4
Karon Boyd F	38	9	6	2	3-6	0-2
Dillon Battie F	30	10	9	0	3-10	0-0
Michael Gray Jr. G	26	7	3	1	1-7	1-4
Emmanuel Okorafor F	18	6	8	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
William Berg C	22	7	5	2	2-3	0-0
Dre Kindell G	14	6	2	2	2-4	0-1
Brian Amuneke G	12	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: TJ Williams, Tyrus Rathan-Mayes, Henry Thengvall, Joy Ighovodja, Jaret Valencia, Pierre Couisnard, Noah Hill

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WICH -8.5	WICH -6.6	UNT +1.9	L WICH covered
Total	135.5	133.1	Under 2.4	L Over
Projected score	—	UNT 63.2 · WICH 69.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WICH -3.8	WICH -10.0
1H total	62.4	64
1H projected score	UNT 29.3 · WICH 33.1	UNT 27 · WICH 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWWWW	9-5	64%	3-1	7-2
WICH LWWLL	9-6	60%	5-3	5-5

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; WICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UUUOU	4-10	29%	8-6
WICH OUUOU	6-9	40%	8-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
WICH	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNT 4–0 WICHUNT leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · UNT has won the last 4 meetings · UNT 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2024-25	WICH 66 @ UNT 68	UNT -6.5	WICH W
Jan 29, 2024-25	UNT 58 @ WICH 54	WICH +4.5	WICH W
Jan 4, 2023-24	UNT 74 @ WICH 62	WICH -0.5	UNT W
Dec 18, 2021-22	UNT 62 @ WICH 52	WICH -4	UNT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Texas

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

9-5

64% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-564%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1029%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 7	vsUSF	L 70-74	+4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

USF

L 70-74

+0.5

covered 9didn’t cover 5avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

USF

L 70-74

−3.5

over 4under 10avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wichita St

15 games played

Straight up

8-7

53% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-9

40% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-753%

W W W L W L L L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-660%

W W W W W W L L W L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-940%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCA	W 75-58	-6.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsPV	W 105-62	-20.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 13	vsLUC	W 95-74	-5.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	@BOIS	L 59-62	+9.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 121
Nov 22	vsMILW	W 75-58	-10.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsSMC	L 65-70	+9.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsCSU	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsWKU	L 70-75	-4.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@UNI	W 74-69	+1.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 143
Dec 13	vsDEP	L 58-61	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 17	vsWOF	W 84-73	-12.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 157
Dec 21	vsEKU	W 88-57	-14.5	W +16.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 31	@UAB	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Jan 3	@CLT	L 100-104	-5.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	vsRICE	L 64-66	-13.5	L −15.5	145.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

+10.5

W 105-62

+22.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

+6.5

MILW

W 75-58

+6.5

SMC

L 65-70

+4.5

CSU

L 70-76

−4.5

WKU

L 70-75

−9.5

UNI

W 74-69

+6.5

DEP

L 58-61

−10.5

WOF

W 84-73

−1.5

EKU

W 88-57

+16.5

UAB

W 75-70

+8.5

CLT

L 100-104

−9.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCA

W 75-58

−24.5

W 105-62

+10.5

LUC

W 95-74

+15.5

BOIS

L 59-62

−29.5

MILW

W 75-58

−25.5

SMC

L 65-70

−4.5

CSU

L 70-76

+3.5

WKU

L 70-75

−10.5

UNI

W 74-69

+7.5

DEP

L 58-61

−26.5

WOF

W 84-73

+12.5

EKU

W 88-57

−3.5

UAB

W 75-70

−4.5

CLT

L 100-104

+63.5

RICE

L 64-66

−15.5

over 6under 9avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Texas Mean Green at Wichita State Shockers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Texas

Wichita St

North Texas

Wichita St