Niagara Purple Eagles at Manhattan Jaspers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 11, 2:00 PM ETDraddy Gymnasium · at Manhattan · Conference game

#346NIANiagara70final

Final

#330MANManhattan79▲ winner

Closing lineMAN -5.5✓ MAN covered by 3.5

Closing total140.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Niagara and Manhattan
NIA	This season	MAN
3-11	Record	6-10
4-10	ATS	6-10
6-8	O/U	6-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIA 70–76 MAN · ✓ MAN (70%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIA	38	32	70
MAN	36	43	79

1st half: NIA 38, MAN 36 (NIA by 2). The model had MAN by 3.4 and a total of 68.6 (actual 74).

Team stats

NIA		MAN
27-55 49%	Field goals	27-56 48%
10-25 40%	3-pointers	6-15 40%
6-7 86%	Free throws	19-21 90%
27 8 off	Rebounds	32 11 off
22	Assists	18
2	Steals	7
5	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	5
14	Fouls	7
32	Points in paint	36
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

NIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Page G	33	13	1	3	5-14	1-7
Reggie Prudhomme G	28	11	3	3	4-6	3-4
Justin Hawkins F	27	6	4	5	3-7	0-0
Will Shortt F	19	6	5	0	3-6	0-0
Landon Williams G	19	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Bench
Trenton Walters G	27	16	3	6	6-8	4-5
Josiah Sabino G	23	8	4	3	2-5	0-3
Kabeya Tshibangu C	12	2	3	1	1-2	0-0
Vice Zanki F	12	5	0	1	2-4	1-3

Did not play: Drew Larson, Gael Dalmau, Brian Griffith, AJ McBride

MAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Winston G	38	16	3	9	5-10	0-1
Devin Dinkins G	34	16	3	0	4-6	2-3
Fraser Roxburgh F	29	13	5	1	5-8	3-6
Erik Oliver-Bush G	21	5	1	1	2-6	0-2
Marko Ljubicic F	20	7	5	2	3-4	1-1
Bench
Anthony Isaac Jr. F	27	14	10	3	6-10	0-0
Terrance Jones G	23	8	4	2	2-8	0-1
Quron Elliott G	8	0	0	0	0-4	0-1

Did not play: Brett Rumpel, Asier Miguel, Nick Lukmann, Omari Moore, Jameson Borodawka, Jaeden Robley, Will Sydnor, Louis Fairtlough, Jackson Delaney, Michael Lawlor, Aryan Arora

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MAN -5.5	MAN -5.9	MAN +0.4	W MAN covered
Total	140.5	146.4	Over 5.9	W Over
Projected score	—	NIA 70.2 · MAN 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MAN -3.4	NIA -2.0
1H total	68.6	74
1H projected score	NIA 32.6 · MAN 36	NIA 38 · MAN 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIA LWWLL	4-10	29%	2-7	3-10
MAN WWWLL	6-10	38%	4-2	1-4

Venue/role: NIA away, as underdog; MAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIA OUUOU	6-8	43%	3-11
MAN OUUUU	6-10	38%	6-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIA	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
MAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

NIA 4–4 MANSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · MAN has won the last 3 meetings · NIA 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 2, 2024-25	MAN 85 @ NIA 70	NIA +1.5	MAN W
Jan 18, 2024-25	NIA 65 @ MAN 72	MAN -1.5	MAN W
Jan 28, 2023-24	MAN 84 @ NIA 78	NIA -9.5	MAN W
Jan 5, 2023-24	NIA 81 @ MAN 67	MAN +2.5	NIA W
Jan 27, 2022-23	MAN 62 @ NIA 68	NIA -5.5	NIA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Niagara

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

4-10

29% covers · avg −4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

L W W L L L L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-1029%

L W W L L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-843%

O U U O U O U O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 22	vsHOW	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 29	vsDETM	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 5	@SIE	L 54-83	+12.5	L −16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	@SPU	L 43-71	+5.5	L −22.5	131.5	U 114
Dec 13	@MORG	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 15	@VCU	L 58-84	+30.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 2	vsSHU	W 64-61	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 4	vsFAIR	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 158
Jan 9	@IONA	L 53-71	+10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

HOW

L 70-80

−5.5

DETM

L 66-70

−2.5

SIE

L 54-83

−16.5

SPU

L 43-71

−22.5

MORG

L 73-81

−6.5

VCU

L 58-84

+4.5

SHU

W 64-61

+4.5

FAIR

L 75-83

−4.5

IONA

L 53-71

−7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 10avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

HOW

L 70-80

+11.5

DETM

L 66-70

−6.5

SIE

L 54-83

+7.5

SPU

L 43-71

−17.5

MORG

L 73-81

+13.5

VCU

L 58-84

−1.5

SHU

W 64-61

−14.5

FAIR

L 75-83

+19.5

IONA

L 53-71

−16.5

over 6under 8avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Manhattan

16 games played

Straight up

6-10

38% wins

Against the spread

6-10

38% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-10

38% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-1038%

L W L W L L L W L L L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-1038%

L W L L L L L W L L W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-1038%

O U U U O O O U O U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204
Nov 29	@ARMY	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsFAIR	W 70-66	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRST	L 68-80	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@FOR	L 53-82	+8.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsFUR	L 68-75	+10.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsPRES	W 87-81	+2.5	W +8.5	138.5	O 168
Dec 29	@RID	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 2	vsQUIN	W 80-79	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 4	@MRMK	L 66-73	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	vsCAN	L 64-70	-7.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-81

−4.5

FAIR

W 70-66

+5.5

MRST

L 68-80

−4.5

FOR

L 53-82

−20.5

FUR

L 68-75

+3.5

PRES

W 87-81

+8.5

RID

W 74-71

+0.5

QUIN

W 80-79

+8.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−0.5

CAN

L 64-70

−13.5

covered 6didn’t cover 10avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

ARMY

L 78-81

+6.5

FAIR

W 70-66

−19.5

MRST

L 68-80

+7.5

FOR

L 53-82

−12.5

FUR

L 68-75

−11.5

PRES

W 87-81

+29.5

RID

W 74-71

−2.5

QUIN

W 80-79

−0.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−9.5

CAN

L 64-70

−11.5

over 6under 10avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Niagara Purple Eagles at Manhattan Jaspers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Niagara

Manhattan

Niagara

Manhattan